Justin Yeager

P Durham Bulls

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	AAMIL	47	51	3.88	2.79	25.9%	8.8%	—	K 21.0% · BB 9.7% · FIP 3.32
2025	27	MIX2 levels	49	57	2.04	3.12	22.1%	11.1%	—	K 18.3% · BB 10.9% · FIP 3.44
2026	28	MIX2 levels	45	64	6.85	6.82	22.1%	12.4%	—	K 18.6% · BB 11.7% · FIP 7.09
2027PROJ	29	MLBTB	40	42	5.65	5.65	18.4%	11.1%	-0.5
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBTB	13	14	5.62	5.69	18.5%	11.2%	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsWirfin Obispo (age 30) · Jim Miller (age 30) · Brandon Cunniff (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.65

FIP5.65

K%18.4%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%7.3%

Proj IP42

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	1	0	2	8	3	1	0	0%	2.0	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.52	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	1	0	2	8	3	1	0	0%	2.0	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.60	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	40	170	60	18	3	0%	1.3	26.6%	12.3%	14.2%	2.1%	2.92	3.59	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	40	170	60	18	3	0%	1.3	35.3%	10.6%	24.7%	1.8%	2.92	2.42	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	52	218	81	31	6	0%	1.1	29.6%	15.8%	13.8%	3.6%	3.10	4.58	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	52	218	81	31	6	0%	1.1	37.2%	14.2%	22.9%	2.8%	3.10	3.27	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	3	0	2	11	2	3	0	0%	0.8	18.2%	27.3%	-9.1%	0.0%	0.00	5.02	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	3	0	2	11	2	3	0	0%	0.8	18.2%	27.3%	-9.1%	0.0%	0.00	5.24	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	47	0	51	216	56	19	3	0%	1.1	21.0%	9.7%	11.3%	1.4%	3.88	3.32	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	47	0	51	216	56	19	3	0%	1.1	21.0%	9.7%	11.3%	1.4%	3.88	3.32	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	47	0	51	216	56	19	3	0%	1.1	25.9%	8.8%	17.1%	1.4%	3.88	2.79	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	57	226	50	25	2	0%	1.2	18.3%	10.9%	7.4%	0.9%	2.04	3.44	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	57	226	50	25	2	0%	1.2	18.3%	10.9%	7.4%	0.9%	2.04	3.44	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	57	226	50	25	2	0%	1.2	22.1%	11.1%	11.1%	0.9%	2.04	3.12	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	64	299	66	37	20	0%	1.4	18.6%	11.7%	6.9%	7.4%	6.85	7.09	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	64	299	66	37	20	0%	1.4	18.6%	11.7%	6.9%	7.4%	6.85	7.09	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	64	299	66	37	20	0%	1.4	22.1%	12.4%	9.7%	6.7%	6.85	6.82	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	TB	40	0	42	177	33	20	7	0%	1.1	18.4%	11.1%	7.3%	4.2%	5.65	5.65	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	TB	37	0	39	166	31	19	7	0%	1.1	18.5%	11.2%	7.3%	4.3%	5.62	5.69	-0.5
2028	30	MLB CTX	TB	13	0	14	59	11	7	3	0%	1.1	18.5%	11.2%	7.3%	4.3%	5.62	5.69	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	14	61	11	7	3	0%	1.0	18.5%	11.2%	7.3%	4.3%	5.62	5.32	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	152	97	42	0%	1.1	18.5%	11.2%	7.3%	4.3%	5.62	5.32	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		224	0	269	1148	257	140	39	0%	1.2	22.4%	12.2%	10.2%	3.4%	3.84	4.61	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		166	0	200	852	191	104	29	0%	1.2	22.4%	12.2%	10.2%	3.4%	3.84	4.61	-2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Yeager (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.65	18.4%	11.1%	4.2%	—	5.69	18.5%	7.3%	39	+0.04	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	90
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	86
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	83
Jason Boyd R 2002 · 5.81 FIP	29	SU	5.81	13.7%	10.7%	4.6%	.290	4.74	15.0%	3.7%	65	-1.07	3.68	128	82
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	82
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	81
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	81
Brian Sanches R 2008 · 4.74 FIP	29	SU	4.74	18.5%	9.3%	3.7%	.378	4.01	20.5%	10.8%	182	-0.73	3.39	229	80
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	80
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2015 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	18.6%	7.6%	4.9%	.373	3.56	18.5%	9.3%	93	-1.65	3.50	170	80
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	80
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	79
Eder Llamas R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	29	SU	4.84	12.3%	8.8%	3.0%	.261	3.64	11.3%	4.6%	120	-1.20	3.23	171	79
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	79
Fernery Ozuna R 2023 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	19.0%	11.6%	4.9%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	157	78
Stephen Kohlscheen R 2017 · 5.76 FIP	28	SU	5.76	18.1%	8.8%	5.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	2.52	167	78
Adrian Garza R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	16.0%	7.0%	3.4%	.351	5.18	9.7%	4.1%	113	+0.71	3.94	229	78
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	78
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	78
Tucker Healy R 2018 · 5.20 FIP	28	SU	5.20	19.2%	10.5%	4.4%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	174	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	41	18.4%	11.2%	1.65	5.64
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Dave Stevens ('00)	1.3	50	14.6%	11.3%	1.76	6.02
Josh Osich ('21)	1.1	55	20.7%	9.0%	1.84	5.02
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*