Jake Bennett

P Boston Red Sox

Age 26 LHP 6'6" / 234 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.3 · 2028

Overview

MLBSP40-MANFG #226Pre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	MIX2 levels	15	15	63	3.14	2.37	28.3%	6.2%	—	K 21.2% · BB 7.2% · FIP 3.41
2025	24	MIX3 levels	19	18	75	2.27	2.68	21.5%	6.4%	—	K 16.4% · BB 7.7% · FIP 3.45
2026	25	MIX2 levels	29	28	153	3.12	3.11	21.6%	4.6%	3.4	K 20.6% · BB 4.4% · FIP 3.22
2027PROJ	26	MLBBOS	19	19	113	3.73	3.89	19.8%	4.6%	1.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBBOS	22	22	132	3.81	3.89	19.8%	4.6%	1.5
2029PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBBOS	22	22	132	3.91	3.97	19.7%	4.8%	1.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.000First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$5M2030Arb-2$7M2031Arb-3$8M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs77

Whiff%39

K%35

FB Velo26

CompsColton Gordon (age 25) · Adam Morgan (age 26) · Dylan Dodd (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8492vR 100

ERA3.73

FIP3.89

K%19.8%

BB%4.6%

K-BB%15.3%

Proj IP113

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 113 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$26M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF3550

CTRL6060

CMD4550

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2692.8

Whiff%

p3923.7%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p770.286

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$11M	+$10M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$11M	+$10M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+1.4	$10M	+$5M
2030	Arb-2	$7M	+1.1	$7M	+$2M
2031	Arb-3	$8M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$14M		$41M	+$28M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	63	258	73	16	4	100%	4.2	21.2%	7.2%	13.9%	2.2%	3.14	3.41	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	63	258	73	16	4	100%	4.2	28.3%	6.2%	22.1%	1.6%	3.14	2.37	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	18	75	297	64	19	3	95%	4.0	16.4%	7.7%	8.7%	1.4%	2.27	3.45	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	18	75	297	64	19	3	95%	4.0	16.4%	7.7%	8.7%	1.4%	2.27	3.45	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	18	75	297	64	19	3	95%	4.0	21.5%	6.4%	15.2%	1.0%	2.27	2.68	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	153	612	132	28	14	97%	5.3	20.6%	4.4%	16.2%	2.4%	3.12	3.22	+3.2
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	153	612	132	28	14	97%	5.3	20.6%	4.4%	16.2%	2.4%	3.12	3.22	+3.2
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	153	612	132	28	14	97%	5.3	21.6%	4.6%	17.0%	2.3%	3.12	3.11	+3.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			20	19	113	455	91	19	12	95%	5.7	20.0%	4.2%	15.8%	2.6%	3.65	3.37	+2.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	BOS	19	19	113	477	95	22	13	100%	5.9	19.8%	4.6%	15.3%	2.7%	3.73	3.89	+1.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	BOS	23	23	139	588	117	27	16	100%	6.1	19.8%	4.6%	15.2%	2.8%	3.85	3.93	+1.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	BOS	23	23	139	588	116	28	17	100%	6.1	19.7%	4.8%	14.9%	2.9%	3.95	4.01	+1.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	BOS	22	22	133	562	107	28	17	100%	6.0	19.1%	5.0%	14.1%	3.0%	4.08	4.17	+1.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	BOS	21	21	125	528	97	28	17	100%	6.0	18.4%	5.3%	13.1%	3.2%	4.26	4.38	+0.8
2032	31	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	117	492	87	28	17	100%	6.1	17.6%	5.7%	12.0%	3.5%	4.47	4.61	+0.4
2033	32	MLB MLE	BOS	18	18	108	456	77	28	17	100%	6.0	16.9%	6.1%	10.8%	3.7%	4.71	4.87	+0.0
2034	33	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	99	418	67	27	17	100%	6.2	16.0%	6.5%	9.5%	4.0%	4.97	5.15	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	BOS	22	22	132	557	110	26	15	100%	6.0	19.8%	4.6%	15.2%	2.7%	3.81	3.89	+1.5
2029	28	MLB CTX	BOS	22	22	132	557	110	27	16	100%	6.0	19.7%	4.8%	14.9%	2.8%	3.91	3.97	+1.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	BOS	21	21	126	532	102	27	16	100%	6.0	19.1%	5.0%	14.1%	3.0%	4.04	4.13	+1.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	BOS	20	20	119	502	92	27	16	100%	6.0	18.4%	5.3%	13.1%	3.2%	4.22	4.34	+0.7
2032	31	MLB CTX	BOS	18	18	111	469	83	27	16	100%	6.2	17.6%	5.7%	12.0%	3.4%	4.42	4.56	+0.4
2033	32	MLB CTX	BOS	17	17	103	435	73	26	16	100%	6.1	16.9%	6.1%	10.8%	3.6%	4.66	4.82	+0.0
2034	33	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	94	397	64	26	15	100%	5.9	16.0%	6.5%	9.5%	3.9%	4.92	5.10	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		156	155	930	3905	725	204	122	99%	6.0	18.6%	5.2%	13.3%	3.1%	4.17	3.90	+11.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	839	156	44	26	99%	6.0	18.6%	5.2%	13.3%	3.1%	4.17	3.90	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		63	61	291	1167	230	69	24	97%	4.6	19.7%	5.9%	13.8%	2.1%	2.91	3.32	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	42	200	802	158	47	17	97%	4.6	19.7%	5.9%	13.8%	2.1%	2.91	3.32	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Bennett (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.89	19.8%	4.6%	2.7%	—	4.03	19.5%	14.7%	412	+0.14	—	—	—
Colton Gordon L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SP	3.89	20.4%	6.7%	3.0%	.286	4.69	18.3%	13.4%	281	+0.80	2.73	586	77
Adam Morgan L 2016 · 4.10 FIP	26	SP	4.10	19.9%	5.2%	3.7%	.315	3.66	24.3%	16.6%	151	-0.44	3.45	522	76
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	74
Tyler Anderson L 2016 · 3.30 FIP	26	SP	3.30	20.2%	5.9%	2.1%	.310	4.28	22.3%	14.4%	295	+0.98	3.10	1,288	72
Tim Cooney L 2015 · 3.55 FIP	24	SP	3.55	18.0%	5.1%	2.4%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	120	72
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	71
Miguel Pena L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	16.8%	8.2%	2.3%	.288	5.08	16.0%	9.0%	68	+1.11	2.98	282	71
Marco Tovar L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP	3.78	17.1%	7.8%	2.1%	.323	4.70	13.0%	6.1%	120	+0.92	3.78	327	71
Christian Friedrich L 2012 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	19.6%	8.0%	3.3%	.340	3.59	19.0%	10.6%	83	-0.67	3.39	297	71
Chris Jones L 2015 · 3.80 FIP	26	SP-	3.80	15.0%	4.9%	2.4%	.305	4.07	13.4%	5.6%	118	+0.27	3.80	268	70
Brant Hurter L 2024 · 3.80 FIP	25	SP-	3.80	19.7%	5.4%	3.1%	.298	3.08	21.7%	12.6%	98	-0.72	2.84	440	70
Nick Bush L 2022 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP	4.76	19.3%	4.3%	5.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	320	70
Chad Bell L 2015 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	15.7%	7.4%	2.3%	.326	4.07	19.0%	10.2%	252	+0.10	3.39	393	69
Tyler Skaggs L 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SP	4.23	20.8%	7.7%	3.5%	.310	3.51	23.9%	16.0%	205	-0.72	3.18	553	69
Evan Grills L 2018 · 3.41 FIP	26	SP	3.41	18.6%	5.0%	2.3%	.327	3.54	14.8%	7.8%	43	+0.13	3.41	309	68
Luke Heimlich L 2019 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP	4.15	18.2%	7.6%	3.0%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	118	68
Jimmy Reed L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	24	SP	3.66	12.9%	4.3%	2.0%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	137	67
Erik Bedard L 2005 · 3.43 FIP	26	SP	3.43	20.6%	9.2%	1.7%	.311	3.38	24.3%	15.8%	459	-0.05	2.96	1,317	67
Ted Lilly L 2002 · 4.38 FIP	26	SP-	4.38	18.6%	6.8%	3.6%	.222	4.49	18.9%	9.7%	502	+0.11	3.61	1,975	67
Mat Batts L 2015 · 2.70 FIP	24	SP	2.70	16.9%	5.6%	0.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	141	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.4	121	18.7%	5.2%	1.22	4.16
Jordan Zimmermann ('21)	8.1	147	18.8%	5.1%	1.09	4.07
Scott Baker ('15)	5.3	133	18.9%	5.5%	1.23	4.26
Kyle Hendricks ('25)	8.7	145	19.0%	5.6%	1.08	3.79
Elmer Ponder ('17-'21, 4 WAR*)	1.9	95	18.2%*	6.0%*	1.14*	4.07*
Ken Johnson ('58-'70, 17 WAR*)	8.7	174	18.8%*	6.2%*	1.16*	4.19*
Bryn Smith ('81-'93, 21 WAR*)	9.0	149	17.9%*	5.8%*	1.07*	4.08*