Spencer Mraz prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Spencer Mraz P Hickory Crawdads

Age 28 RHP 6'10" / 245 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%21.3%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%8.3%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	14	0	24	101	32	10	1	0%	1.7	21.5%	12.4%	9.2%	1.4%	1.52	3.61	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	14	0	24	101	32	10	1	0%	1.7	31.7%	9.9%	21.8%	1.0%	1.52	2.21	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	1	41	196	57	20	4	3%	1.4	21.7%	12.0%	9.8%	2.8%	5.23	4.31	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	1	41	196	57	20	4	3%	1.4	29.1%	10.2%	18.9%	2.0%	5.23	3.05	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	40	0	55	244	68	39	8	0%	1.4	21.5%	18.4%	3.1%	3.6%	5.40	5.62	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	40	0	55	244	68	39	8	0%	1.4	27.9%	16.0%	11.9%	3.3%	5.40	4.65	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	24	0	35	173	34	29	1	0%	1.5	15.1%	19.3%	-4.1%	0.8%	6.69	4.68	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	24	0	35	173	34	29	1	0%	1.5	15.1%	19.3%	-4.1%	0.8%	6.69	4.68	—
2023	25	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	24	0	35	173	34	29	1	0%	1.5	19.7%	16.8%	2.9%	0.6%	6.69	4.01	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.3%	13.0%	8.3%	2.9%	4.95	4.95	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	TEX	19	0	20	84	18	11	3	0%	1.1	21.2%	12.8%	8.4%	3.1%	4.96	5.02	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	TEX	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.2%	12.8%	8.4%	3.1%	4.96	5.02	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.2%	12.8%	8.4%	3.1%	4.96	4.64	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	99	33	0%	1.1	21.2%	12.8%	8.4%	3.1%	4.96	4.64	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		108	1	155	714	143	114	17	1%	1.4	20.0%	16.0%	4.0%	2.4%	5.05	4.75	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		139	1	200	921	184	147	22	1%	1.4	20.0%	16.0%	4.0%	2.4%	5.05	4.75	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Mraz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	21.3%	13.0%	2.9%	—	5.02	21.2%	8.4%	20	+0.07	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	89
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	87
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	85
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	84
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	83
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	83
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	82
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	82
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	82
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	81
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	81
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	81
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	80
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	80
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	80
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	79
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	79
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	79
Erik Davis R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	17.9%	13.5%	1.2%	.363	3.64	21.1%	11.3%	181	-0.31	3.05	227	79
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	20.1%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.04	2.92	140	79