Mac Lardner prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Mac Lardner P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 28 LHP 6'4" / 195 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%21.3%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP43

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	21	14	67	298	73	22	10	67%	3.2	18.9%	8.5%	10.4%	3.9%	5.91	4.75	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	21	14	67	298	73	22	10	67%	3.2	24.5%	7.4%	17.1%	3.4%	5.91	3.85	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	19	8	57	257	58	21	8	42%	3.0	17.4%	9.4%	8.0%	4.1%	4.55	5.08	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	19	8	57	257	58	21	8	42%	3.0	22.6%	8.2%	14.4%	3.1%	4.55	3.99	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	31	0	62	269	61	22	4	0%	2.0	17.5%	9.4%	8.1%	1.5%	4.09	3.66	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	31	0	62	269	61	22	4	0%	2.0	17.5%	9.4%	8.1%	1.5%	4.09	3.66	—
2023	25	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	31	0	62	269	61	22	4	0%	2.0	22.7%	8.2%	14.5%	1.5%	4.09	3.04	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.3%	9.3%	12.0%	2.9%	4.47	4.47	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	OAK	39	0	41	172	37	16	5	0%	1.0	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	3.1%	4.54	4.59	-0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	OAK	11	0	12	51	11	5	2	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	3.1%	4.54	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	12	52	11	5	2	0%	1.0	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	3.1%	4.54	4.21	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	81	32	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	3.1%	4.54	4.21	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		71	22	186	824	148	75	26	31%	2.6	17.9%	9.1%	8.9%	3.2%	4.89	4.50	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	24	200	886	159	80	28	31%	2.6	17.9%	9.1%	8.9%	3.2%	4.89	4.50	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mac Lardner (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	21.3%	9.3%	2.9%	—	4.59	21.3%	11.8%	41	+0.12	—	—	—
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	79
Hector Hernandez L 2019 · 3.39 FIP	28	SW	3.39	20.2%	9.0%	1.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	121	79
Chad Bell L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SW	4.57	19.4%	8.9%	3.6%	.341	4.38	18.8%	11.4%	57	-0.19	3.39	393	78
Tommy Phelps L 2003 · 3.39 FIP	29	SW	3.39	15.6%	8.0%	1.1%	.322	4.47	16.9%	8.9%	57	+1.08	3.39	120	76
Jordan Carr L 2023 · 3.49 FIP	26	SW	3.49	17.2%	8.5%	1.4%	.270	5.16	12.7%	2.3%	137	+1.67	3.49	269	75
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	75
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	74
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	74
Edgar Olmos L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	27	SW	3.64	18.9%	9.7%	1.7%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	203	72
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	72
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	71
Austin Warner L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	491	70
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	69
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.34	16.7%	9.5%	356	-0.53	3.68	579	69
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.36 FIP	27	SU	4.36	19.3%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	69
Carson Teel L 2022 · 4.26 FIP	26	SU	4.26	17.7%	7.1%	3.2%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	248	67
Everett Teaford L 2012 · 5.47 FIP	28	SW	5.47	13.3%	8.0%	4.5%	.291	4.42	13.9%	6.3%	103	-1.05	4.42	208	67
Colton Turner L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	28	SW	4.23	22.4%	9.2%	3.4%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	325	67
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	67
Reid Love L 2018 · 3.98 FIP	26	SW	3.98	19.6%	7.2%	3.0%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	280	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	42	21.3%	9.4%	1.17	4.50
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16