Johnny Ray — OGILVIE

Johnny Ray P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 16 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%23.4%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	8	1	12	57	15	8	1	12%	1.5	17.9%	17.5%	0.4%	2.4%	9.75	5.12	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	8	1	12	57	15	8	1	12%	1.5	26.3%	14.0%	12.3%	1.8%	9.75	3.68	—
2022	23	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	3	1	10	45	17	4	2	33%	3.4	37.8%	8.9%	28.9%	4.4%	4.35	3.48	—
2022	23	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	3	1	10	45	17	4	2	33%	3.4	37.8%	8.9%	28.9%	4.4%	4.35	3.49	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	0	23	118	32	24	2	0%	1.0	18.9%	24.9%	-6.0%	2.4%	7.04	6.00	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	0	23	118	32	24	2	0%	1.0	27.1%	20.3%	6.8%	1.7%	7.04	4.58	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	24	0	27	137	42	28	5	0%	1.1	23.6%	23.5%	0.1%	5.6%	8.78	7.15	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	24	0	27	137	42	28	5	0%	1.1	23.6%	23.5%	0.1%	5.6%	8.78	7.15	—
2024	25	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	24	0	27	137	42	28	5	0%	1.1	30.7%	20.4%	10.2%	3.6%	8.78	5.54	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	CWS	15	0	16	68	16	9	2	0%	1.1	23.4%	13.8%	9.6%	3.0%	4.93	4.93	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CWS	19	0	20	84	20	11	3	0%	1.1	23.2%	13.6%	9.6%	3.2%	4.94	5.00	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	CWS	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	23.2%	13.6%	9.6%	3.2%	4.94	5.00	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	23.2%	13.6%	9.6%	3.2%	4.94	4.62	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	198	99	33	0%	1.1	23.2%	13.6%	9.6%	3.2%	4.94	4.62	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		58	2	72	357	82	76	14	3%	1.2	22.9%	21.2%	1.7%	3.9%	7.75	5.98	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		161	6	200	992	227	210	39	3%	1.2	22.9%	21.2%	1.7%	3.9%	7.75	5.98	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Johnny Ray (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	23.4%	13.8%	3.0%	—	5.00	23.2%	9.6%	20	+0.07	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	84
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	83
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	82
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	82
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	82
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	82
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	81
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	80
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	80
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	80
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	80
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	80
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	79
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	79
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	78
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	78
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	77
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	77
Keagan Gillies R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	21.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.306	3.91	20.0%	14.4%	74	-0.11	2.93	177	77
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	77