Allan Hernandez — OGILVIE

Allan Hernandez P Akron RubberDucks

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs AA

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 28 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.79

FIP4.79

K%22.0%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%9.7%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Red	11	0	12	69	16	15	0	0%	1.1	15.8%	27.2%	-11.4%	0.0%	6.57	5.21	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Indians Red	11	0	12	69	16	15	0	0%	1.1	23.2%	21.7%	1.4%	0.0%	6.57	4.15	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	ACL Indians	3	1	5	22	7	2	3	33%	1.7	31.8%	9.1%	22.7%	13.6%	7.20	9.05	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	ACL Indians	3	1	5	22	7	2	3	33%	1.7	31.8%	9.1%	22.7%	13.6%	7.20	9.30	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	1	19	81	26	10	4	6%	1.2	23.1%	16.9%	6.1%	3.5%	4.74	5.23	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	1	19	81	26	10	4	6%	1.2	32.1%	12.3%	19.8%	4.9%	4.74	4.68	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	37	0	48	211	51	30	2	0%	1.3	18.6%	16.4%	2.3%	1.0%	2.83	4.15	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	37	0	48	211	51	30	2	0%	1.3	18.6%	16.4%	2.3%	1.0%	2.83	4.15	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	37	0	48	211	51	30	2	0%	1.3	24.2%	14.2%	10.0%	0.9%	2.83	3.39	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	5	0	5	27	1	8	0	0%	1.1	3.7%	29.6%	-25.9%	0.0%	0.00	6.54	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	5	0	5	27	1	8	0	0%	1.1	3.7%	29.6%	-25.9%	0.0%	0.00	6.54	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	5	0	5	27	1	8	0	0%	1.1	3.7%	29.6%	-25.9%	0.0%	0.00	7.22	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CLE	27	0	28	118	26	14	3	0%	1.0	22.0%	12.2%	9.7%	2.9%	4.79	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CLE	27	0	28	118	26	14	4	0%	1.0	22.1%	12.0%	10.1%	3.0%	4.76	4.78	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	CLE	10	0	11	46	10	6	1	0%	1.1	22.1%	12.0%	10.1%	3.0%	4.76	4.78	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	44	10	5	1	0%	1.1	22.1%	12.0%	10.1%	3.0%	4.76	4.40	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	95	19	0%	1.1	22.1%	12.0%	10.1%	3.0%	4.76	4.40	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		72	2	89	410	77	77	8	3%	1.2	18.7%	18.8%	-0.0%	1.9%	3.83	4.96	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		161	4	200	918	172	172	18	3%	1.2	18.7%	18.8%	-0.0%	1.9%	3.83	4.96	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Allan Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	22.0%	12.2%	2.9%	—	4.78	22.1%	10.1%	28	-0.01	—	—	—
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	89
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	89
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	89
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	88
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	88
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	87
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	86
Esmerling Vasquez R 2010 · 4.37 FIP	26	SU	4.37	22.9%	14.6%	2.5%	.278	4.23	12.5%	1.5%	62	-0.14	3.70	204	85
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	85
Keagan Gillies R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	21.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.306	3.91	20.0%	14.4%	74	-0.11	2.93	177	85
Nelson L. Alvarez R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	26	SU	4.12	23.2%	13.1%	2.4%	.282	4.70	18.5%	9.4%	35	+0.58	2.58	233	85
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	84
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	84
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	84
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	84
Dan Kolb R 2001 · 4.49 FIP	26	SU	4.49	21.4%	12.9%	2.9%	.295	3.61	14.3%	5.5%	131	-0.88	3.00	283	84
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	84
Manny Acosta R 2007 · 4.05 FIP	26	SU	4.05	23.7%	14.0%	2.1%	.196	4.23	19.0%	9.1%	130	+0.18	3.08	350	83
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	83
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	22.0%	12.1%	1.15	4.78
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99