Sam Highfill — OGILVIE

Sam Highfill P Jersey Shore BlueClaws

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 204 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.8 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION74 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%13.4%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%4.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†3030

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	23	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	3	1	7	36	10	5	0	33%	2.3	27.8%	13.9%	13.9%	0.0%	6.43	2.51	—
2024	23	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	3	1	7	36	10	5	0	33%	2.3	27.8%	13.9%	13.9%	0.0%	6.43	2.51	—
2024	23	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	3	1	7	36	10	5	0	33%	2.3	27.8%	13.9%	13.9%	0.0%	6.43	2.39	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	106	452	91	33	13	92%	4.4	15.0%	8.6%	6.5%	3.5%	4.50	4.81	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	106	452	91	33	13	92%	4.4	15.0%	8.6%	6.5%	3.5%	4.50	4.81	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	22	106	452	91	33	13	92%	4.4	20.1%	7.3%	12.8%	2.9%	4.50	3.91	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	26	9	74	338	83	35	13	35%	2.8	18.9%	11.9%	7.0%	4.8%	6.57	5.65	—
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	26	9	74	338	83	35	13	35%	2.8	18.9%	11.9%	7.0%	4.8%	6.57	5.65	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	PHI	26	9	74	338	83	35	13	35%	2.8	24.6%	10.4%	14.2%	3.8%	6.57	4.45	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	PHI	6	0	6	26	4	2	1	0%	1.0	13.4%	9.0%	4.3%	3.0%	5.15	5.15	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	80	364	87	37	14	—	—	23.7%	10.3%	13.5%	3.8%	6.46	5.61	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	PHI	16	16	95	403	61	36	12	100%	6.0	15.1%	8.9%	6.3%	3.0%	5.01	4.98	-0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	PHI	15	15	94	397	62	35	12	100%	6.3	15.6%	8.9%	6.8%	3.1%	4.96	4.96	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	PHI	15	15	91	385	61	34	12	100%	6.1	15.8%	8.9%	6.9%	3.2%	4.97	5.01	-0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	PHI	14	14	87	368	58	34	12	100%	6.2	15.7%	9.1%	6.6%	3.3%	5.05	5.12	-0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	PHI	13	13	82	346	53	33	12	100%	6.3	15.4%	9.4%	6.0%	3.5%	5.20	5.30	-0.4
2027	26	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	41	173	26	15	6	100%	5.9	15.1%	8.9%	6.3%	3.2%	5.13	5.10	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	PHI	10	10	59	249	39	22	8	100%	5.9	15.6%	8.9%	6.8%	3.3%	5.08	5.08	-0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	69	291	46	26	10	100%	6.3	15.8%	8.9%	6.9%	3.4%	5.10	5.14	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	PHI	12	12	71	300	47	27	11	100%	5.9	15.7%	9.1%	6.6%	3.5%	5.18	5.25	-0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	70	296	45	28	11	100%	6.4	15.4%	9.4%	6.0%	3.8%	5.34	5.44	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	51	310	1308	204	119	45	100%	6.1	15.6%	9.1%	6.5%	3.5%	5.17	4.83	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	132	77	29	100%	6.1	15.6%	9.1%	6.5%	3.5%	5.17	4.83	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		53	32	187	826	142	84	32	60%	3.5	17.2%	10.2%	7.0%	3.9%	5.39	5.05	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	34	200	883	152	90	34	60%	3.5	17.2%	10.2%	7.0%	3.9%	5.39	5.05	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Highfill (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	13.4%	9.0%	3.0%	—	4.98	15.5%	6.6%	281	-0.17	—	—	—
Alex Sanabia R 2015 · 4.44 FIP	26	SP-	4.44	11.4%	7.9%	2.4%	.358	3.66	11.1%	6.2%	161	-0.78	3.42	378	87
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	86
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	85
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	84
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	84
Carlos Frías R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP-	4.01	14.1%	7.2%	2.2%	.320	4.85	13.0%	2.6%	74	+0.84	3.58	204	84
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	83
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	82
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	82
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	82
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	81
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	81
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	81
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	81
Casey Kelly R 2015 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP-	4.21	13.6%	8.7%	2.1%	.339	4.56	15.2%	7.7%	356	+0.35	4.08	607	81
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	81
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	80
Joel De La Cruz R 2015 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	10.3%	6.7%	2.0%	.276	4.61	14.4%	5.8%	120	+0.42	4.19	205	80
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	80
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	87	15.2%	9.0%	1.23	5.05
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Ty Blach ('24)	2.5	84	12.8%	6.9%	1.23	5.56
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Chi Chi González ('22)	1.3	64	13.3%	9.0%	1.41	5.44
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98