Brandon Young

P Baltimore Orioles

Age 28 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.5 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	27	24	111	3.57	2.66	28.5%	8.0%	—	K 24.1% · BB 7.4% · FIP 3.03
2025	26	MIX3 levels	19	19	91	4.95	4.37	21.4%	7.5%	0.6	K 19.5% · BB 7.1% · FIP 4.64
2026	27	MIX2 levels	31	31	173	3.32	4.10	20.9%	8.8%	1.6	K 20.5% · BB 8.8% · FIP 4.06
2027PROJ	28	MLBBAL	25	25	152	4.55	4.67	19.8%	9.0%	0.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBBAL	23	23	138	4.80	4.91	19.2%	9.2%	0.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBBAL	22	22	130	5.00	5.13	18.5%	9.5%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.000First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$2M2029Arb-3$2M2030Arb-4$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo48

xwOBA vs44

Whiff%43

K%34

CompsChase Anderson (age 28) · Brad Peacock (age 28) · Taylor Jungmann (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.55

FIP4.67

K%19.8%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%10.8%

Proj IP152

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 152 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4894.4

Whiff%

p4324.3%

p3419.9%

xwOBA vs

p440.319

FB+1.7 (54%)

SL (16%)

SI (14%)

CU (12%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2025

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-4	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	20	84	351	114	37	8	87%	3.7	24.5%	12.3%	12.2%	2.8%	3.52	4.13	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	20	84	351	114	37	8	87%	3.7	32.5%	10.5%	21.9%	2.3%	3.52	2.95	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	3	3	13	58	10	6	2	100%	4.4	14.0%	11.4%	2.6%	3.5%	2.02	5.30	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	3	3	13	58	10	6	2	100%	4.4	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	3.4%	2.02	4.90	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	11	11	40	162	40	6	6	100%	3.6	17.9%	6.3%	11.6%	3.8%	4.50	4.49	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	11	11	40	162	40	6	6	100%	3.6	24.7%	3.7%	21.0%	3.7%	4.50	3.50	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	111	463	132	37	8	89%	4.1	24.1%	7.4%	16.8%	1.9%	3.57	3.03	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	111	463	132	37	8	89%	4.1	24.1%	7.4%	16.8%	1.9%	3.57	3.03	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	24	111	463	132	37	8	89%	4.1	28.5%	8.0%	20.5%	1.7%	3.57	2.66	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	91	388	83	29	15	100%	4.8	19.5%	7.1%	12.4%	4.2%	4.95	4.64	+0.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	91	388	83	29	15	100%	4.8	19.5%	7.1%	12.4%	4.2%	4.95	4.64	+0.3
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	91	388	83	29	15	100%	4.8	21.4%	7.5%	13.9%	3.9%	4.95	4.37	+0.6
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	173	727	152	64	22	100%	5.6	20.5%	8.8%	11.8%	2.9%	3.32	4.06	+1.7
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	173	727	152	64	22	100%	5.6	20.5%	8.8%	11.8%	2.9%	3.32	4.06	+1.7
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	173	727	152	64	22	100%	5.6	20.9%	8.8%	12.1%	3.0%	3.32	4.10	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			40	40	214	925	180	83	34	100%	5.4	19.5%	9.0%	10.5%	3.7%	4.28	4.64	+0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	BAL	25	25	152	642	127	58	20	100%	6.1	19.8%	9.0%	10.8%	3.1%	4.55	4.67	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	BAL	24	24	145	613	118	56	20	100%	6.0	19.2%	9.2%	10.0%	3.3%	4.72	4.83	+0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	BAL	23	23	136	576	107	55	20	100%	5.9	18.5%	9.5%	9.0%	3.5%	4.91	5.04	-0.2
2030	31	MLB MLE	BAL	21	21	127	537	95	53	20	100%	6.1	17.8%	9.8%	7.9%	3.7%	5.12	5.27	-0.5
2028	29	MLB CTX	BAL	23	23	138	583	112	54	20	100%	6.0	19.2%	9.2%	10.0%	3.4%	4.80	4.91	+0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	BAL	22	22	130	549	102	52	20	100%	5.9	18.5%	9.5%	9.0%	3.6%	5.00	5.13	-0.2
2030	31	MLB CTX	BAL	20	20	121	511	91	50	20	100%	6.0	17.8%	9.8%	7.9%	3.9%	5.21	5.36	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		105	105	603	2566	484	239	94	100%	5.7	18.9%	9.3%	9.6%	3.7%	4.74	4.69	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	851	161	79	31	100%	5.8	18.9%	9.3%	9.6%	3.7%	4.74	4.69	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		114	108	513	2149	460	185	64	95%	4.5	21.4%	8.6%	12.8%	3.0%	3.75	4.02	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	838	179	72	25	95%	4.5	21.4%	8.6%	12.8%	3.0%	3.75	4.02	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Young (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	19.8%	9.0%	3.1%	—	5.04	18.5%	9.0%	409	+0.37	—	—	—
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	83
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	78
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	72
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	672	71
Victor Santos R 2005 · 4.67 FIP	28	SP	4.67	13.9%	8.1%	3.1%	.278	4.90	16.0%	7.8%	179	+0.23	4.09	602	71
Hiram Burgos R 2016 · 4.08 FIP	28	SP	4.08	16.3%	9.1%	2.2%	.330	4.94	19.3%	11.8%	62	+0.86	3.40	384	70
Paul Clemens R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	28	SP	4.58	17.6%	9.1%	3.3%	.271	4.72	14.9%	3.9%	53	+0.14	4.58	345	69
Matt Shoemaker R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	20.4%	5.8%	4.1%	.280	3.74	21.8%	15.9%	269	-0.64	3.12	728	69
Tylor Megill R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	28	SP	4.61	17.0%	9.8%	3.1%	.322	3.33	27.2%	16.9%	205	-1.28	3.02	603	68
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.73	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.66	4.07	203	68
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	67
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	67
Matt Buschmann R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	31	SP	4.03	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.84	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.03	277	67
James Kaprielian R 2022 · 4.63 FIP	28	SP	4.63	17.0%	10.2%	3.0%	.260	5.62	17.6%	6.1%	110	+0.99	2.80	446	67
Todd Ritchie R 2000 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	15.4%	6.2%	3.2%	.301	4.29	13.2%	6.9%	369	-0.07	3.03	828	67
Hector Velázquez R 2017 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	18.0%	6.6%	2.2%	.251	4.28	16.7%	7.4%	158	+0.63	2.75	536	66
Jeremy Hefner R 2013 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP	4.33	17.8%	5.9%	3.6%	.277	4.64	16.8%	7.7%	98	+0.31	3.56	322	66
Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	26	SP	4.65	15.0%	8.9%	3.1%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	278	66
Armando Galarraga R 2010 · 5.06 FIP	28	SP	5.06	12.0%	8.1%	3.5%	.258	6.67	14.1%	2.6%	67	+1.61	3.92	584	66
Mike Thurman R 2001 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	14.6%	6.5%	3.2%	.303	3.46	15.1%	7.9%	33	-0.99	3.46	482	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	129	19.0%	9.2%	1.34	4.67
Max Surkont ('49-'57, 5 WAR*)	6.0	149	20.0%*	8.4%*	1.27*	4.76*
Manny Salvo ('39-'43, 4 WAR*)	3.6	144	17.2%*	9.2%*	1.19*	4.37*
Eddie Stack ('10-'14, 2 WAR*)	2.5	123	19.1%*	9.2%*	1.24*	4.60*
Dan Straily ('19)	4.0	115	19.8%	9.1%	1.60	4.56
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
Scott Olsen ('10)	3.6	120	16.6%	9.2%	1.34	4.85