Austin Roberts
P
Frisco RoughRiders
Age 28
RHP
6'0" / 215 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 43 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 103
ERA4.53
FIP4.53
K%22.6%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%11.8%
ROS IP43
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 83 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 67 | 288 | 103 | 25 | 15 | 0% | 1.7 | 26.8% | 10.1% | 16.7% | 4.5% | 4.46 | 4.57 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 67 | 288 | 103 | 25 | 15 | 0% | 1.7 | 35.8% | 8.7% | 27.1% | 5.2% | 4.46 | 4.06 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | 37 | 3 | 48 | 220 | 56 | 19 | 9 | 8% | 1.3 | 20.6% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 4.2% | 4.28 | 4.87 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | 37 | 3 | 48 | 220 | 56 | 19 | 9 | 8% | 1.3 | 25.5% | 8.6% | 16.8% | 4.1% | 4.28 | 4.38 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 72 | 326 | 75 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.6 | 19.5% | 11.5% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 5.72 | 4.46 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 72 | 326 | 75 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.6 | 23.0% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 5.72 | 4.10 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 67 | 262 | 85 | 29 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.9% | 12.0% | 15.0% | 1.8% | 2.28 | 3.33 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 67 | 262 | 85 | 29 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 32.4% | 11.1% | 21.4% | 1.5% | 2.28 | 2.64 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 1 | 58 | 255 | 61 | 26 | 5 | 2% | 1.4 | 20.3% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.23 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 1 | 58 | 255 | 61 | 26 | 5 | 2% | 1.4 | 23.9% | 10.2% | 13.7% | 2.0% | 4.21 | 3.46 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 28 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 60 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 30.1% | 12.7% | 17.4% | 3.8% | 3.35 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | TEX | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 41 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | TEX | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 83 | 350 | 101 | 39 | 11 | — | — | 28.8% | 11.3% | 17.5% | 3.2% | 3.96 | 4.41 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.6% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.15 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 39 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.59 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.59 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 0 | 14 | 58 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.25 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 190 | 88 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 239 | 4 | 352 | 1520 | 359 | 168 | 49 | 2% | 1.5 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.11 | 4.29 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 136 | 2 | 200 | 863 | 204 | 95 | 28 | 2% | 1.5 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.11 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Roberts (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.64 | 22.4% | 11.6% | 41 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 87 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 85 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 85 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 85 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 84 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 84 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 84 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 84 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .327 | 4.77 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.31 | 2.32 | 676 | 84 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 83 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 83 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 83 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 82 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.18 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .307 | 6.22 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 13 | +2.04 | 2.75 | 299 | 82 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 82 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 81 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 81 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 4.4% | .350 | 5.85 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 137 | +1.16 | 4.26 | 258 | 81 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 81 |
| Javy Guerra R 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 42 | 22.5% | 10.8% | 1.15 | 4.56 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |