Austin Roberts — OGILVIE

Austin Roberts P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 215 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%21.5%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%11.2%

ROS IP43

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	67	288	103	25	15	0%	1.7	26.8%	10.1%	16.7%	5.3%	4.46	5.04	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	67	288	103	25	15	0%	1.7	35.8%	8.7%	27.1%	5.2%	4.46	4.06	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	37	3	48	220	56	19	9	8%	1.3	20.6%	9.5%	11.1%	4.5%	4.28	5.05	—
2022	24	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	37	3	48	220	56	19	9	8%	1.3	25.5%	8.6%	16.8%	4.1%	4.28	4.38	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	72	326	75	35	9	0%	1.6	18.9%	10.6%	8.3%	3.0%	5.72	4.50	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	72	326	75	35	9	0%	1.6	18.9%	10.6%	8.3%	3.0%	5.72	4.50	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	72	326	75	35	9	0%	1.6	23.0%	10.7%	12.3%	2.8%	5.72	4.10	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	67	262	85	29	4	0%	1.3	26.5%	11.3%	15.1%	1.8%	2.28	3.27	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	67	262	85	29	4	0%	1.3	26.5%	11.3%	15.1%	1.8%	2.28	3.27	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	67	262	85	29	4	0%	1.3	32.4%	11.1%	21.4%	1.5%	2.28	2.64	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	1	58	255	61	26	5	2%	1.4	19.7%	9.8%	9.8%	2.4%	4.21	3.99	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	1	58	255	61	26	5	2%	1.4	19.7%	9.8%	9.8%	2.4%	4.21	3.99	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	1	58	255	61	26	5	2%	1.4	23.9%	10.2%	13.7%	2.0%	4.21	3.46	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	43	1	58	255	84	33	10	2%	1.3	26.8%	13.6%	13.1%	4.6%	3.26	5.10	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	43	1	58	255	84	33	10	2%	1.3	26.8%	13.6%	13.1%	4.6%	3.26	5.10	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	TEX	34	1	49	204	75	25	8	3%	1.4	36.8%	12.3%	24.5%	3.9%	2.96	3.70	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	TEX	9	0	9	51	9	8	2	0%	1.0	17.6%	15.7%	2.0%	3.9%	4.82	5.75	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	TEX	39	0	41	173	37	18	5	0%	1.1	21.4%	10.4%	11.1%	3.0%	4.57	4.62	-0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	TEX	12	0	13	55	12	6	2	0%	1.1	21.4%	10.4%	11.1%	3.0%	4.57	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	54	12	6	2	0%	1.1	21.4%	10.4%	11.1%	3.0%	4.57	4.24	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	94	31	0%	1.1	21.4%	10.4%	11.1%	3.0%	4.57	4.24	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		254	5	370	1606	372	174	58	2%	1.5	23.2%	10.8%	12.3%	3.6%	4.06	4.49	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	3	200	868	201	94	31	2%	1.5	23.2%	10.8%	12.3%	3.6%	4.06	4.49	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Roberts (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	21.5%	10.2%	2.8%	—	4.62	21.4%	11.1%	41	+0.11	—	—	—
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	87
Jaye Chapman R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	21.6%	8.5%	1.8%	.276	4.08	20.3%	11.3%	85	+0.76	3.25	150	86
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	86
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	85
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	85
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	85
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	85
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	84
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	84
Michael Mariot R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	22.6%	9.0%	2.1%	.327	4.79	20.9%	11.8%	74	+1.28	2.40	676	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	84
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	84
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	84
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	83
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	83
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	83
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	83
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	83
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	83
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	42	21.5%	10.3%	1.12	4.54
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21