Austin Roberts
P
Frisco RoughRiders
+0.3
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'0" / 215 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.6%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%11.8%
IP61
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 40 | 0 | 67 | 288 | 103 | 25 | 15 | 26.8% | 10.1% | 5.3% | 4.46 | 5.01 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | 37 | 3 | 48 | 220 | 56 | 19 | 9 | 20.6% | 9.5% | 4.4% | 4.28 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 44 | 0 | 72 | 326 | 75 | 35 | 9 | 19.5% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 5.72 | 4.56 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 50 | 0 | 67 | 262 | 85 | 29 | 4 | 26.9% | 12.0% | 1.8% | 2.28 | 3.31 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 40 | 1 | 58 | 255 | 61 | 26 | 5 | 20.3% | 10.9% | 2.4% | 4.21 | 4.10 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 5 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 4 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.26 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 58 | 28 | 7 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 68 | 287 | 62 | 32 | 7 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 2.6% | 4.47 | 4.07 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 57 | 27 | 7 | 22.5% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 55 | 26 | 7 | 22.4% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.56 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 53 | 25 | 7 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 50 | 25 | 7 | 21.9% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.70 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 52 | — | 52 | 217 | 47 | 24 | 7 | 21.6% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 44 | 23 | 7 | 21.3% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 4.84 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 41 | 22 | 7 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 4.96 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 37 | 21 | 6 | 20.5% | 11.7% | 3.5% | 5.08 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 216 | 4 | 318 | 1379 | 313 | 151 | 45 | 22.7% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.21 | 4.38 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 136 | 3 | 200 | 866 | 197 | 95 | 28 | 22.7% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.21 | 4.38 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Roberts (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.57 | 22.4% | 11.7% | 174 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 89 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 88 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 88 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 86 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.41 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.4% | .283 | 4.31 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.90 | 3.41 | 104 | 86 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.30 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .271 | 2.97 | 26.0% | 17.7% | 215 | -0.33 | 1.54 | 521 | 85 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .327 | 4.82 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.30 | 2.39 | 676 | 85 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 85 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 84 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2024 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 84 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.83 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .247 | 3.31 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.52 | 3.31 | 159 | 84 |
| Sam Dyson R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.42 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.85 | 18.9% | 11.9% | 187 | +0.43 | 2.67 | 333 | 84 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.96 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 2.8% | .307 | 6.39 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 13 | +2.43 | 2.85 | 299 | 84 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.54 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .277 | 3.88 | 21.1% | 12.7% | 203 | +0.34 | 2.86 | 596 | 84 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.38 | 25.8% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .253 | 3.83 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 154 | +0.45 | 2.84 | 484 | 84 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2029 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 83 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.63 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 124 | 83 |
| Trevin Michael R 2025 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 83 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 83 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 83 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.