Thomas Schultz

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 27 RHP 6'6" / 243 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	41	0	49	3.65	4.17	25.4%	8.5%	—	K 19.1% · BB 9.8% · FIP 5.41
2025	25	MIX3 levels	46	5	69	3.78	3.96	24.4%	11.0%	—	K 20.0% · BB 11.9% · FIP 4.69
2026	26	AAWSH	43	3	54	4.50	3.93	26.3%	9.1%	—	K 21.3% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.83
2027PROJ	27	MLBWSH	67	0	70	5.10	5.10	20.1%	11.8%	-0.4
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBWSH	25	0	26	5.07	5.10	20.3%	11.7%	-0.2
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBWSH	34	0	36	5.11	5.17	20.3%	11.8%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control40Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsRicky Stone (age 27) · Luis Mateo (age 27) · Cole McDonald (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%20.1%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%8.3%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	16	64	17	5	3	0%	1.6	18.8%	8.0%	10.8%	7.2%	4.02	6.48	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	16	64	17	5	3	0%	1.6	26.6%	7.8%	18.8%	4.7%	4.02	4.38	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	49	201	51	17	8	0%	1.2	19.1%	9.8%	9.2%	4.9%	3.65	5.41	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	49	201	51	17	8	0%	1.2	19.1%	9.8%	9.2%	4.9%	3.65	5.41	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	49	201	51	17	8	0%	1.2	25.4%	8.5%	16.9%	4.0%	3.65	4.17	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	5	69	283	69	31	8	11%	1.5	20.0%	11.9%	8.2%	3.2%	3.78	4.69	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	5	69	283	69	31	8	11%	1.5	20.0%	11.9%	8.2%	3.2%	3.78	4.69	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	46	5	69	283	69	31	8	11%	1.5	24.4%	11.0%	13.4%	2.8%	3.78	3.96	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	43	3	54	232	61	21	8	7%	1.3	21.3%	10.0%	11.3%	4.1%	4.50	4.83	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	43	3	54	232	61	21	8	7%	1.3	21.3%	10.0%	11.3%	4.1%	4.50	4.83	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	43	3	54	232	61	21	8	7%	1.3	26.3%	9.1%	17.2%	3.4%	4.50	3.93	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	WSH	67	0	70	296	59	35	10	0%	1.0	20.1%	11.8%	8.3%	3.3%	5.10	5.10	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	65	0	68	287	58	34	10	0%	1.0	20.3%	11.7%	8.6%	3.4%	5.07	5.10	-0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	62	0	65	274	56	32	10	0%	1.0	20.3%	11.8%	8.5%	3.5%	5.11	5.17	-0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	25	0	26	110	22	13	4	0%	1.0	20.3%	11.7%	8.6%	3.4%	5.07	5.10	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	34	0	36	152	31	18	5	0%	1.1	20.3%	11.8%	8.5%	3.5%	5.11	5.17	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	260	53	31	9	0%	1.0	20.3%	11.8%	8.6%	3.4%	5.09	4.76	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	101	29	0%	1.1	20.3%	11.8%	8.6%	3.4%	5.09	4.76	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		140	8	188	780	156	82	33	6%	1.3	20.1%	10.5%	9.6%	4.3%	3.97	5.07	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		149	9	200	830	166	87	35	6%	1.3	20.1%	10.5%	9.6%	4.3%	3.97	5.07	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Thomas Schultz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	20.1%	11.8%	3.3%	—	5.13	20.3%	8.6%	133	+0.03	—	—	—
Ricky Stone R 2002 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	18.8%	9.3%	2.7%	.297	4.96	13.7%	7.4%	165	+0.80	4.16	243	88
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	87
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	87
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	86
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	85
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	85
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	85
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	85
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	84
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	83
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	83
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	83
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	83
Jason Motte R 2009 · 4.62 FIP	27	SU	4.62	22.1%	9.0%	4.1%	.297	2.84	26.9%	21.0%	192	-1.78	2.22	387	82
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	82
Ryan Middendorf R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	19.1%	9.0%	4.0%	.293	4.41	12.7%	-1.1%	34	-0.43	1.27	164	82
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	82
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	82
J.J. Putz R 2004 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	17.1%	7.3%	3.6%	.283	2.58	28.5%	23.0%	210	-1.99	1.43	563	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	20.2%	11.8%	1.31	5.09
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*