Irvin Machuca

P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 187 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2019	19	AAAPiratas de Ca…	36	1	38	4.54	3.39	22.5%	12.1%	—	K 19.8% · BB 12.7% · FIP 3.62
2025	25	MIX2 levels	29	0	42	4.50	2.20	35.0%	11.3%	—	K 26.2% · BB 12.2% · FIP 3.35
2026	26	AACIN	14	0	19	8.38	8.12	22.6%	17.2%	—	K 18.3% · BB 18.9% · FIP 8.91
2027PROJ	27	MLBCIN	13	0	14	5.45	5.45	21.6%	14.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBCIN	8	0	8	5.38	5.42	21.6%	14.1%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsSpencer Bivens (age 28) · Scott Proctor (age 27) · Cole McDonald (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 120

ERA5.45

FIP5.45

K%21.6%

BB%14.5%

K-BB%7.0%

Proj IP14

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	19	AAA MLE	Piratas de Campeche	36	1	38	173	39	21	2	3%	1.0	19.8%	12.7%	7.1%	1.1%	4.54	3.62	—
2019	19	AAA RAW	Piratas de Campeche	36	1	38	173	39	21	2	3%	1.0	22.5%	12.1%	10.4%	1.2%	4.54	3.39	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	42	177	62	20	2	0%	1.4	26.2%	12.2%	14.1%	1.7%	4.50	3.35	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	42	177	62	20	2	0%	1.4	26.2%	12.2%	14.1%	1.7%	4.50	3.35	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	42	177	62	20	2	0%	1.4	35.0%	11.3%	23.7%	1.1%	4.50	2.20	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	14	0	19	93	21	16	7	0%	1.4	18.3%	18.9%	-0.6%	9.0%	8.38	8.91	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	14	0	19	93	21	16	7	0%	1.4	18.3%	18.9%	-0.6%	9.0%	8.38	8.91	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	14	0	19	93	21	16	7	0%	1.4	22.6%	17.2%	5.4%	7.5%	8.38	8.12	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CIN	13	0	14	59	13	9	2	0%	1.1	21.6%	14.5%	7.0%	3.6%	5.45	5.45	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CIN	19	0	20	84	18	12	3	0%	1.1	21.6%	14.1%	7.5%	3.6%	5.38	5.42	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	CIN	8	0	8	34	7	5	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	14.1%	7.5%	3.6%	5.38	5.42	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	8	32	7	4	1	0%	1.1	21.6%	14.1%	7.5%	3.6%	5.38	5.04	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	106	27	0%	1.1	21.6%	14.1%	7.5%	3.6%	5.38	5.04	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		79	1	99	443	98	61	13	1%	1.3	22.1%	13.8%	8.3%	3.0%	5.27	4.63	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		160	2	200	895	198	124	27	1%	1.3	22.1%	13.8%	8.3%	3.0%	5.27	4.63	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Irvin Machuca (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.45	21.6%	14.5%	3.6%	—	5.42	21.6%	7.5%	20	-0.03	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	86
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	85
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	85
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	82
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	82
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	82
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	82
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	81
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	81
Scott Dohmann R 2005 · 4.93 FIP	27	SU	4.93	24.5%	12.6%	4.2%	.321	4.69	18.9%	7.5%	96	-0.24	4.28	173	80
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	80
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	80
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	80
Jake Haberer R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	27	SU	5.24	24.3%	16.0%	4.0%	.324	5.08	16.4%	0.9%	62	-0.16	3.46	183	80
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	80
Brian Sanches R 2006 · 5.30 FIP	27	SU	5.30	22.4%	10.2%	5.1%	.295	4.52	19.0%	10.1%	82	-0.78	3.39	229	79
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	79
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	79
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	79
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	79