Sergio TapiaC Lakeland Flying Tigers
Age 23 R/R 5'10" / 160 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
2026 ROS PROJECTION95 act + 63 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†61
AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .268 / .343
PA63
HR2
K%25
BB%6
BABIP248
ISO137
MLB%0%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -10.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-11BATRUN: +0.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +2.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+3POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+4REPTotal WAR: -0.30-0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.20.40.60.70.60.50.30.0+$21M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT40
scouting grade only
POWER40
scouting grade only
EYE25
scouting grade only
SPEED40
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.6$2M+$1M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.5$1M+$0.8M
2033Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.3$0.7M+$0.2M
2034Arb-1$3M———
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $3M $4M +$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
201916 ROKDSL Tigers 1 — 114102 19500 5303 25 186245235481 49257 264 205 15 — — — — — —
201916 ROKDSL Tigers 1 — 11499 25700 8213 25 253327323651 71312 187 290 80 — — — — — —
202118 ROKFCL Tigers East — 4134 7100 472 10 206325235560 29250 1710 248 48 — — — — — —
202118 ROKFCL Tigers East — 4132 9100 652 10 281425312738 31321 1215 346 123 — — — — — —
202219 ROKFCL Tigers — 7870 15411 6150 21 214276343619 129250 198 270 65 — — — — — —
202219 ROKFCL Tigers — 7866 19511 10100 21 288382439821 152316 1313 358 132 — — — — — —
202320 ALakeland Flying Tigers — 124108 15401 11314 11 139244204448 65184 259 216 24 — — — — — —
202320 ALakeland Flying Tigers — 124102 18502 17214 11 176317284601 108203 1714 285 76 — — — — — —
202421 ROKFCL Tigers — 10294 17313 6211 00 181238330567 149200 216 233 37 — — — — — —
202421 ROKFCL Tigers — 10289 21413 11141 00 236327404731 169250 1411 325 107 — — — — — —
202522 ALakeland Flying Tigers — 150137 28606 8302 00 204259380638 175212 205 267 63 — — — — — —
202522 ALakeland Flying Tigers — 150135 31605 9212 00 230286385671 156232 146 293 82 — — — — — —
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD23 ADET — 9586 15302 7240 00 174237279516 105210 257 218 25 -8 +0 +0 +2 +3 -0.4
YTD23 ADET — 9584 17302 9170 00 202280310589 107224 189 265 61 -4 +0 +0 +2 +3 0.0
ROS23 ADET 0% 6358 12202 4161 10 206268343611 137248 256 265 61 -3 +0 +0 +1 +2 0.0
ROS23 MLBDET 0% 01 0000 000 00 —— 244 —— 253 52 — — +0 +0 — —
FULL23 ADET — 9587 15302 7240 00 172237276512 103206 257 218 25 -8 +0 +0 +2 +3 -0.4
TOT23 ADET — 158144 27504 11401 10 187249305554 118225 257 237 39 -11 +0 +0 +3 +4 -0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202724 MLBDET 30% 214197 42816 13532 31 213269355624 142253 256 272 66 -8 +0 +0 +4 +6 0.2
202825 MLBDET 44% 301276 581118 19733 41 210268344613 134256 246 277 70 -10 +0 +0 +5 +9 0.4
202926 MLBDET 51% 361331 7113210 23874 41 215274356630 142258 246 280 72 -11 +0 +0 +6 +10 0.6
203027 MLBDET 52% 390357 7815211 26954 51 218279364643 146259 247 281 73 -12 +1 +0 +7 +11 0.7
203128 MLBDET 53% 407373 8015211 27994 51 214275354629 139258 247 280 73 -13 +1 -1 +7 +12 0.6
203229 MLBDET 53% 410375 8015211 281014 41 213275352627 139257 257 278 71 -13 +0 -1 +7 +12 0.5
203330 MLBDET 52% 410375 7915111 281024 41 211273344617 133256 257 275 69 -14 +0 -2 +7 +12 0.3
203431 MLBDET 52% 388355 7314110 26984 31 206268335603 130254 257 271 66 -15 +0 -3 +7 +11 0.0
202724 MLBDET 30% 6459 12202 4161 10 203266339605 136249 256 260 57 -3 +0 +0 +1 +2 0.0
202825 MLBDET 44% 133123 26513 8321 20 211265341607 130252 246 265 61 -6 +0 +0 +2 +4 0.1
202926 MLBDET 51% 183167 36715 12442 21 216276359636 144254 247 267 63 -8 +0 +0 +3 +5 0.1
203027 MLBDET 52% 204186 39715 14492 21 210272339611 129254 247 269 64 -8 +0 +0 +4 +6 0.1
203128 MLBDET 53% 217198 42816 15532 21 212274354628 141254 247 268 63 -9 +0 -0 +4 +6 0.1
203229 MLBDET 53% 215196 42816 15532 21 214277357634 143253 257 266 62 -9 +0 -1 +4 +6 -0.0
203330 MLBDET 52% 214195 41815 15532 21 210274338612 128252 257 263 60 -10 +0 -1 +4 +6 -0.1
203431 MLBDET 52% 201183 38715 14512 20 208271339610 131249 257 259 57 -10 +0 -1 +4 +6 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career— — 14311308 27652737 9735114 155 211273346619 135258 257 265 61 -63 +1 -4 +26 +41 0.1
/ 162G— — 650594 12624317 441596 72 212273348622 136259 247 265 61 -29 +1 -2 +12 +18 0.0
Career— — 35533242 6741311491 23485842 3915 208270341611 133252 247 270 65 -140 +2 -7 +63 +101 1.9
/ 162G— — 650593 12424317 431578 73 209272346617 137253 247 270 65 -26 +0 -1 +12 +18 0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
201916 ROKDSL Tigers 1 — 11499 25700 8213 25 253327323651 71312 187 290 80 -3 -2 — — +3 -0.1
202118 ROKFCL Tigers East — 4132 9100 652 10 281425312738 31321 1215 346 123 +1 +0 — — +1 0.2
202219 ROKFCL Tigers — 7866 19511 10100 21 288382439821 152316 1313 358 132 +3 +0 — — +2 0.5
202320 ALakeland Flying Tigers — 124102 18502 17214 11 176317284601 108203 1714 285 76 -3 -0 — — +4 -0.0
202421 ROKFCL Tigers — 10289 21413 11141 00 236327404731 169250 1411 325 107 +1 +0 — — +3 0.4
202522 ALakeland Flying Tigers — 150135 31605 9212 00 230286385671 156232 146 293 82 -3 +0 — — +4 0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22
career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA
91,648311209276313+29+566.46.7
/162664120+11.9+22.42.6pk7: 7
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13
career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA
92,7834039246289354+28+195.55.6
/162664109+6.7+4.51.3pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09
career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA
101,524292226288351+19+143.84.3
/162664131+8.5+6.21.6pk7: 5
#4J.P. Arencibialast yr '15
career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA
51,650782213260414+29-44.24.2
/162664311+11.9-1.71.7pk7: 4
#5Adam Engellast yr '22
career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA
61,5403047225280350+4+334.24.2
/1626641320+1.8+14.41.8pk7: 4
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19
career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA
71,680226230279335+9+212.02.0
/16266492+3.7+8.50.8pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons
51,5744217213269350+28+201.91.8
/162664187+11.9+8.40.8pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Sergio Tapia (OGILVIE) 23 40 40 40 25 187/249/305 118225 41 25% 7% 39 -0.3 ————————— —————————
✕Marcus Greene Jr.
2018 · A 		23 39 47→50 42→40 41 202/261/332 130266 154 30% 6% 63 -0.9 213/265/319 106304 115 32% 6% 60 -1.0 194/242/263692928035%6%31-0.9
✕Scott Manea
2019 · A 		23 43→41 46→45 46→30 42 215/287/347 132265 143 24% 5% 79 +0.3 208/288/337 129275 153 29% 7% 76 +0.1 186/279/29110626513032%9%57-0.7
✕Mike Bell
2008 · A 		23 45→47 45 45 42 226/275/348 123270 127 21% 5% 72 -0.2 219/260/339 120269 115 23% 4% 63 -0.9 213/246/33512225811122%4%53-1.3
✕Gavin Collins
2019 · A 		24 40 45→50 41→40 39 203/251/330 127259 134 27% 5% 57 -1.2 213/269/332 119258 134 22% 6% 66 -0.6 206/278/33012425116125%6%66-0.2
✕Kade Scivicque
2016 · A 		23 44→48 44→45 47→40 41 219/269/330 110263 137 22% 4% 65 -0.7 227/266/308 81293 72 24% 4% 56 -1.3 231/270/33210128810023%4%62-0.4
✕Óscar Hernández
2015 · A 		22 42 44→50 41→40 39 210/253/331 121271 114 27% 4% 58 -1.2 198/245/313 115261 125 28% 5% 50 -1.7 166/216/27010421412128%5%24-1.2
✕Michael Barash
2018 · A 		23 43 44→45 42→45 44 213/275/328 115284 123 28% 7% 67 -0.5 212/285/335 123285 136 28% 9% 73 -0.1 182/276/31313123116427%11%62-0.3
✕Jason Lopez
2021 · A 		23 40 44→55 46→45 37 202/247/323 121282 127 32% 5% 53 -1.5 194/256/297 103298 1010 36% 7% 50 -1.7 163/228/25491247101036%8%25-0.9
✕Jett Bandy
2013 · A 		23 44 46→50 45 41 220/277/354 135253 134 19% 4% 76 +0.0 224/281/358 134263 143 21% 4% 78 +0.2 225/283/36313826118221%4%78+0.1
✕Cristian Inoa
2022 · A 		23 46→43 47→45 48→45 44 233/279/367 133269 149 20% 5% 79 +0.3 222/275/335 113283 106 24% 6% 69 -0.4 211/268/3141032739225%6%59-0.8
✕Juan Fernandez
2022 · AA 		23 42→52 47→40 47→50 42 214/274/349 134277 157 28% 6% 72 -0.2 242/302/334 92301 910 22% 6% 79 +0.3 251/312/3267530771120%6%77+0.1
✕Jimmy Glowenke
2022 · A 		23 41→38 46→45 43→45 37 205/269/332 127299 135 34% 6% 66 -0.6 196/266/316 120276 135 32% 6% 61 -1.0 180/258/29010924512530%6%48-1.1
✕Lucas May
2008 · A 		23 39→43 50→55 45 37 209/251/362 154265 196 29% 4% 66 -0.6 215/265/359 144285 166 30% 5% 71 -0.3 213/266/35113828415530%6%68-0.3
✕Jose Vizcaino Jr.
2017 · A 		23 45→41 43→45 41→45 42 220/280/333 113296 106 28% 6% 70 -0.3 208/258/301 93317 88 35% 5% 52 -1.6 194/239/273793077837%4%34-2.1
✕Rodolfo Durán
2021 · A 		23 39 47→55 47→40 36 204/241/332 128275 164 32% 4% 53 -1.5 201/241/337 136264 154 29% 5% 54 -1.4 225/266/38616127619326%4%75-0.0
✕Nick Hutchins
2019 · A 		23 43 45→50 47→40 39 213/270/345 132297 123 31% 6% 69 -0.4 207/248/306 99290 85 30% 4% 49 -1.8 193/221/277842687430%2%27-1.6
✕Chadd Krist
2013 · A 		23 43 45→40 45 42 214/265/345 131275 125 27% 6% 67 -0.5 194/256/292 98267 95 29% 7% 50 -1.8 172/235/258862408431%7%29-1.3
✕Mitch Delfino
2014 · A 		23 45→52 47→45 44→40 43 229/270/358 130262 155 20% 5% 72 -0.2 236/275/338 102281 104 19% 5% 69 -0.4 235/276/320852848320%5%61-0.7
✕Ramón Rodríguez
2022 · AA 		23 43 42→40 47→45 40 213/257/317 104272 105 26% 5% 56 -1.3 225/280/319 94262 98 18% 6% 66 -0.6 215/285/31910423612515%8%66-0.2
✕Tyler Marlette
2016 · AA 		23 46→42 46→50 47→45 40 229/272/360 131295 147 27% 5% 73 -0.1 219/264/354 135290 165 29% 6% 69 -0.4 214/262/34713428217430%6%62-0.6