Dustin Saenz
P
Harrisburg Senators
+0.0
WAR
Age 27
LHP
5'11" / 197 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.69
FIP4.69
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%16.4%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%8.6%
IP71
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF3030
CTRL6060
CMD3535
K†3030
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 6 | 2 | 13 | 60 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 4.72 | 2.81 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 21 | 21 | 97 | 417 | 85 | 29 | 11 | 15.3% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.73 | 4.48 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 25 | 23 | 123 | 503 | 97 | 31 | 10 | 15.2% | 6.9% | 2.3% | 3.43 | 3.94 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 13 | 13 | 43 | 199 | 30 | 17 | 2 | 11.0% | 11.0% | 1.7% | 6.54 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 39 | 9 | 87 | 376 | 52 | 22 | 9 | 11.5% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.62 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 71 | 300 | 42 | 26 | 9 | 14.0% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.99 | 4.99 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 70 | 295 | 44 | 26 | 9 | 14.9% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.93 | 4.95 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 44 | 25 | 9 | 15.4% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 4.94 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 44 | 25 | 9 | 15.6% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.94 | 4.97 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 42 | 24 | 8 | 15.6% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.99 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 40 | 24 | 8 | 15.3% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 5.07 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 59 | — | 59 | 247 | 37 | 23 | 8 | 15.0% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 5.16 | 5.21 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 34 | 22 | 8 | 14.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 5.26 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 52 | — | 52 | 222 | 32 | 22 | 8 | 14.3% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 5.37 | 5.44 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 29 | 21 | 8 | 13.8% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 5.50 | 5.58 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 104 | 68 | 363 | 1555 | 216 | 120 | 39 | 13.9% | 7.7% | 2.5% | 4.41 | 4.28 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 37 | 200 | 856 | 119 | 66 | 21 | 13.9% | 7.7% | 2.5% | 4.41 | 4.28 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dustin Saenz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.99 | 14.0% | 8.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.95 | 15.3% | 6.5% | 204 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Stephen Peterson L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.04 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 55 | -1.56 | 3.04 | 120 | 94 |
| Ozzie Mendez L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 14.6% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .269 | 3.94 | 11.3% | 3.0% | 68 | -0.21 | 3.90 | 161 | 90 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.67 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2.3% | .278 | 5.04 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 45 | +0.37 | 4.67 | 118 | 89 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.12 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 4.0% | .285 | 6.29 | 12.3% | -0.3% | 11 | +1.17 | 3.36 | 144 | 87 |
| Eric Jokisch L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.66 | 12.4% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .330 | 3.94 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 283 | -0.72 | 3.79 | 412 | 87 |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.94 | 13.8% | 8.3% | 1.7% | .328 | 4.22 | 15.3% | 5.5% | 129 | +0.28 | 3.24 | 298 | 86 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.83 | 14.6% | 6.2% | 2.2% | .313 | 4.88 | 13.8% | 5.8% | 66 | +1.05 | 3.03 | 200 | 86 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.26 | 13.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 256 | 85 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.27 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 172 | 83 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.18 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 304 | 82 |
| Jonah Hurney L 2024 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.82 | 14.0% | 6.8% | 1.9% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 119 | 82 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2028 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 81 |
| Chris Cotton L 2024 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.17 | 9.7% | 6.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 128 | 80 |
| Enrique Lechuga L 2028 · 4.67 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.67 | 10.0% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .354 | 3.79 | 10.5% | 4.4% | 59 | -0.88 | 3.79 | 137 | 79 |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 79 |
| Marlon Arias L 2029 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 79 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.21 | 18.1% | 13.3% | 1.8% | .271 | 3.66 | 32.4% | 26.1% | 65 | -0.55 | 1.66 | 186 | 78 |
| Wei-Chung Wang L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.88 | 16.0% | 8.7% | 3.7% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 387 | 78 |
| Juan Martinez L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.80 | 14.4% | 9.2% | 3.2% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 273 | 78 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.69 | 13.3% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .331 | 4.01 | 15.3% | 6.7% | 44 | -0.68 | 3.70 | 110 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.