Dustin Saenz — OGILVIE

Dustin Saenz P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 27 LHP 5'11" / 197 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117125vR 133

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%10.0%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%2.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL6060

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	2	13	60	16	4	0	33%	2.2	17.1%	9.1%	8.0%	0.0%	4.72	2.81	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	2	13	60	16	4	0	33%	2.2	26.7%	6.7%	20.0%	0.0%	4.72	1.60	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	97	417	85	29	11	100%	4.6	15.3%	8.1%	7.2%	3.0%	4.73	4.49	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	97	417	85	29	11	100%	4.6	20.4%	7.0%	13.4%	2.6%	4.73	3.72	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	123	503	97	31	10	92%	4.9	15.2%	6.9%	8.3%	2.3%	3.43	3.93	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	123	503	97	31	10	92%	4.9	15.2%	6.9%	8.3%	2.3%	3.43	3.93	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	123	503	97	31	10	92%	4.9	19.3%	6.2%	13.1%	2.0%	3.43	3.34	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	43	199	30	17	2	100%	3.3	11.0%	11.0%	-0.0%	1.7%	6.54	4.52	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	43	199	30	17	2	100%	3.3	11.0%	11.0%	-0.0%	1.7%	6.54	4.52	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	13	43	199	30	17	2	100%	3.3	15.1%	8.5%	6.5%	1.0%	6.54	3.50	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	9	87	376	52	22	9	23%	2.2	11.5%	6.3%	5.2%	3.1%	4.34	4.61	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	9	87	376	52	22	9	23%	2.2	11.5%	6.3%	5.2%	3.1%	4.34	4.61	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	9	87	376	52	22	9	23%	2.2	13.8%	5.9%	8.0%	2.4%	4.34	4.01	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	18	0	28	131	21	15	2	0%	1.6	14.1%	12.0%	2.1%	1.3%	4.45	4.14	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	18	0	28	131	21	15	2	0%	1.6	14.1%	12.0%	2.1%	1.3%	4.45	4.14	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	TEX	12	0	20	92	16	10	1	0%	1.6	17.4%	10.9%	6.5%	1.1%	3.20	3.60	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	TEX	6	0	9	39	5	5	1	0%	1.4	12.8%	12.8%	0.0%	2.6%	7.27	5.05	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	TEX	6	0	6	25	2	2	1	0%	1.0	10.0%	8.0%	2.0%	2.9%	5.25	5.25	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	34	156	23	17	3	—	—	15.1%	10.9%	4.2%	1.7%	4.58	4.33	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TEX	65	0	68	287	32	24	9	0%	1.0	11.2%	8.3%	3.0%	3.0%	5.21	5.24	-0.5
2028	29	MLB MLE	TEX	62	0	65	274	33	23	9	0%	1.0	11.9%	8.6%	3.3%	3.2%	5.24	5.30	-0.5
2027	28	MLB CTX	TEX	25	0	26	110	12	9	3	0%	1.0	11.2%	8.3%	3.0%	3.0%	5.21	5.24	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	TEX	34	0	36	152	18	13	5	0%	1.1	11.9%	8.6%	3.3%	3.2%	5.24	5.30	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	261	30	22	8	0%	1.0	11.6%	8.4%	3.2%	3.1%	5.23	4.90	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	97	71	26	0%	1.1	11.6%	8.4%	3.2%	3.1%	5.23	4.90	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		122	68	392	1686	234	135	41	56%	3.2	13.9%	8.0%	5.9%	2.4%	4.41	4.27	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	35	200	861	120	69	21	56%	3.2	13.9%	8.0%	5.9%	2.4%	4.41	4.27	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dustin Saenz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	10.0%	8.0%	2.9%	—	5.27	11.6%	3.1%	133	+0.02	—	—	—
Eric Jokisch L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	27	SW	4.64	12.4%	9.6%	2.5%	.330	3.93	15.2%	7.6%	283	-0.71	3.78	412	78
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	78
Aaron Laffey L 2015 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	13.5%	9.7%	1.7%	.318	4.39	12.5%	5.2%	192	+0.27	3.51	282	78
Ryan Kellogg L 2021 · 4.33 FIP	27	SW	4.33	12.3%	5.2%	2.9%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	446	73
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	71
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2017 · 5.46 FIP	27	SW	5.46	11.4%	9.6%	3.8%	.381	3.68	17.1%	11.8%	49	-1.78	3.68	322	71
Kyle Hunter L 2016 · 4.48 FIP	27	SU	4.48	11.2%	9.9%	1.9%	.295	4.50	14.0%	7.9%	72	+0.02	4.32	188	70
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	70
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	69
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	69
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	69
Jose Molina L 2016 · 4.17 FIP	25	SW	4.17	14.4%	8.9%	2.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	144	68
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	68
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	68
Matt Whitehouse L 2018 · 4.55 FIP	27	SW	4.55	17.0%	12.8%	2.3%	.308	4.07	20.1%	9.2%	81	-0.48	3.37	353	67
Stephen Peterson L 2015 · 4.59 FIP	27	SU	4.59	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.55	3.04	120	67
Matt Stalcup L 2016 · 6.20 FIP	26	SW	6.20	11.5%	12.7%	4.5%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	145	67
Chris Cotton L 2016 · 4.17 FIP	25	SU	4.17	9.7%	6.4%	2.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	128	65
Greg Nappo L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	27	SU	5.09	17.2%	10.3%	3.9%	.285	6.26	12.3%	-0.3%	11	+1.17	3.37	144	64
Colten Schmidt L 2023 · 5.23 FIP	27	SW	5.23	14.4%	8.0%	4.2%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	163	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	11.0%	8.3%	1.17	5.23
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Ty Blach ('24)	2.5	84	12.8%	6.9%	1.23	5.56
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38