Dustin Saenz
P
Frisco RoughRiders
Age 27
LHP
5'11" / 197 lbs
AA
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION22 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119129vR 138
ERA5.28
FIP5.28
K%10.0%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%1.9%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 2 | 13 | 60 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 33% | 2.2 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 0.0% | 4.72 | 2.81 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 2 | 13 | 60 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 33% | 2.2 | 26.7% | 6.7% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 4.72 | 1.60 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 97 | 417 | 85 | 29 | 11 | 100% | 4.6 | 15.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 4.35 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 97 | 417 | 85 | 29 | 11 | 100% | 4.6 | 20.4% | 7.0% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 4.73 | 3.72 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 23 | 123 | 503 | 97 | 31 | 10 | 92% | 4.9 | 15.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 2.2% | 3.43 | 3.87 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 23 | 123 | 503 | 97 | 31 | 10 | 92% | 4.9 | 19.3% | 6.2% | 13.1% | 2.0% | 3.43 | 3.34 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 13 | 43 | 199 | 30 | 17 | 2 | 100% | 3.3 | 11.0% | 11.0% | -0.0% | 1.8% | 6.54 | 4.53 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 13 | 43 | 199 | 30 | 17 | 2 | 100% | 3.3 | 15.1% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 1.0% | 6.54 | 3.50 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 9 | 87 | 376 | 52 | 22 | 9 | 23% | 2.2 | 11.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 4.34 | 4.68 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 9 | 87 | 376 | 52 | 22 | 9 | 23% | 2.2 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 4.34 | 4.01 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 14 | 0 | 22 | 98 | 15 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 13.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 4.03 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TEX | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 30 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.0% | 8.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 5.28 | 5.28 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TEX | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.0% | 8.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 5.28 | 5.28 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 92 | 394 | 45 | 35 | 11 | — | — | 11.3% | 8.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.98 | 5.09 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 10.0% | 8.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 5.28 | 4.90 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 32 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.2% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 5.24 | 5.27 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 33 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.9% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.26 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 58 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 31 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.1% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.36 | 5.46 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.2% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 5.24 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.9% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.26 | 5.33 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 21 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.1% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.36 | 5.46 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 99 | 0 | 104 | 441 | 52 | 39 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.8% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.30 | 4.98 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 100 | 75 | 27 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.8% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.30 | 4.98 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 118 | 68 | 386 | 1653 | 229 | 131 | 40 | 58% | 3.3 | 13.9% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 4.39 | 4.25 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 35 | 200 | 857 | 119 | 68 | 21 | 58% | 3.3 | 13.9% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 4.39 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dustin Saenz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.28 | 10.0% | 8.1% | 2.9% | — | 5.35 | 11.7% | 3.0% | 194 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Enrique Lechuga L 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.64 | 10.0% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .354 | 3.90 | 10.5% | 4.4% | 59 | -0.74 | 3.90 | 137 | 79 |
| Eric Jokisch L 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.96 | 12.4% | 9.6% | 3.1% | .330 | 3.92 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 283 | -1.04 | 3.80 | 412 | 77 |
| Jordan Carr L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.24 | 13.1% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .295 | 7.18 | 11.4% | -3.7% | 38 | +2.94 | 3.39 | 261 | 75 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.01 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.2% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 381 | 74 |
| Ryan Kellogg L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.23 | 12.3% | 5.2% | 2.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 446 | 73 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 4.31 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 300 | -0.22 | 3.88 | 523 | 73 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.77 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .278 | 5.20 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 45 | +0.43 | 4.77 | 118 | 72 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 72 |
| Demetrio Gutierrez L 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.30 | 11.4% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .381 | 3.63 | 17.1% | 11.8% | 49 | -1.67 | 3.63 | 322 | 71 |
| Matt Walker L 2024 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 12.7% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 156 | 70 |
| Chris Reed L 2025 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 137 | 70 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 69 |
| Eric Wooten L 2024 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 116 | 69 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.49 | 11.2% | 9.9% | 2.0% | .295 | 4.47 | 14.0% | 7.9% | 72 | -0.02 | 4.44 | 188 | 69 |
| Brian Holmes L 2025 · 6.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.01 | 15.5% | 11.7% | 5.0% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 205 | 68 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.13 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 2.2% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 300 | 68 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.70 | 17.0% | 12.8% | 2.6% | .308 | 4.02 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 81 | -0.68 | 3.38 | 353 | 67 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.39 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 310 | 67 |
| Matt Stalcup L 2025 · 6.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.06 | 11.5% | 12.7% | 4.2% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 145 | 67 |
| Jose Molina L 2024 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.23 | 14.4% | 8.9% | 2.2% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 144 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 66 | 11.3% | 8.5% | 1.21 | 5.28 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Josh Fleming ('24) | 5 | 51 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 1.17 | 4.77 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Ty Blach ('24) | 6 | 84 | 12.8% | 6.9% | 1.23 | 5.56 |