Roel Garcia III

P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 245 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	A+TB	26	18	103	4.30	3.90	22.1%	6.2%	—	K 17.0% · BB 7.1% · FIP 4.87
2025	26	MIX2 levels	17	0	32	3.41	3.29	23.8%	7.1%	—	K 19.9% · BB 7.7% · FIP 3.65
2026	27	AATB	28	0	44	6.90	6.03	15.4%	10.3%	—	K 12.5% · BB 11.3% · FIP 6.85
2027PROJ	28	MLBTB	26	0	27	5.32	5.32	16.0%	9.7%	-0.2
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBTB	8	0	8	5.30	5.35	16.5%	9.8%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsDonovan Hand (age 27) · Ramon Delgado (age 29) · Alfonso Sanchez (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.32

FIP5.32

K%16.0%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%6.3%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	0	13	55	23	3	1	0%	1.6	30.5%	4.6%	25.8%	2.7%	2.13	2.60	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	0	13	55	23	3	1	0%	1.6	41.8%	5.5%	36.4%	1.8%	2.13	1.21	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	20	14	80	341	80	37	9	70%	4.0	18.1%	12.5%	5.6%	3.1%	3.84	4.85	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	20	14	80	341	80	37	9	70%	4.0	23.5%	10.9%	12.6%	2.6%	3.84	3.95	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	26	18	103	439	97	27	15	69%	3.9	17.0%	7.1%	9.9%	4.2%	4.30	4.87	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	26	18	103	439	97	27	15	69%	3.9	17.0%	7.1%	9.9%	4.2%	4.30	4.87	—
2024	25	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	26	18	103	439	97	27	15	69%	3.9	22.1%	6.2%	15.9%	3.4%	4.30	3.90	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	32	126	30	9	3	0%	1.9	19.9%	7.7%	12.2%	2.3%	3.41	3.65	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	32	126	30	9	3	0%	1.9	19.9%	7.7%	12.2%	2.3%	3.41	3.65	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	32	126	30	9	3	0%	1.9	23.8%	7.1%	16.7%	2.4%	3.41	3.29	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	28	0	44	195	30	20	10	0%	1.6	12.5%	11.3%	1.2%	6.2%	6.90	6.85	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	28	0	44	195	30	20	10	0%	1.6	12.5%	11.3%	1.2%	6.2%	6.90	6.85	—
2026	27	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	28	0	44	195	30	20	10	0%	1.6	15.4%	10.3%	5.1%	5.1%	6.90	6.03	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TB	26	0	27	114	18	11	4	0%	1.0	16.0%	9.7%	6.3%	3.6%	5.32	5.32	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TB	24	0	26	108	18	11	4	0%	1.1	16.5%	9.8%	6.7%	3.7%	5.30	5.35	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	TB	8	0	8	34	6	3	1	0%	1.0	16.5%	9.8%	6.7%	3.7%	5.30	5.35	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	34	6	3	1	0%	1.0	16.5%	9.8%	6.7%	3.7%	5.30	4.97	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	150	75	25	0%	1.1	16.5%	9.8%	6.7%	3.7%	5.30	4.97	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		99	32	271	1156	202	108	45	32%	2.7	17.5%	9.3%	8.2%	3.9%	4.38	4.96	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	24	200	853	149	80	33	32%	2.7	17.5%	9.3%	8.2%	3.9%	4.38	4.96	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Roel Garcia III (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.32	16.0%	9.7%	3.6%	—	5.35	16.5%	6.7%	26	+0.03	—	—	—
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	81
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	80
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	79
Jorge Campillo R 2007 · 4.84 FIP	28	SU	4.84	14.3%	9.5%	3.2%	.348	3.93	16.3%	10.8%	159	-0.91	3.93	172	78
Eddie Bonine R 2009 · 5.60 FIP	28	SW	5.60	13.1%	7.6%	4.8%	.306	4.54	8.6%	2.0%	68	-1.06	4.40	129	78
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	78
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	77
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	76
Jeff Manship R 2013 · 5.11 FIP	28	SW	5.11	12.9%	7.9%	3.8%	.298	3.57	20.0%	11.7%	137	-1.54	2.83	250	76
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	76
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	75
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	75
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	75
Lindsey Caughel R 2018 · 5.12 FIP	27	SW	5.12	13.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	187	75
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	75
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	74
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	73
Jared Fernandez R 2001 · 4.66 FIP	29	SW	4.66	8.8%	10.5%	1.8%	.267	3.95	14.0%	5.6%	89	-0.71	3.57	101	73
Reinier Roibal R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	27	SW	4.37	16.9%	7.1%	3.3%	.371	4.91	17.5%	5.7%	37	+0.54	3.11	133	73
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	16.2%	9.7%	1.41	5.31
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*