Miguel Alfonseca

P St. Lucie Mets

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	22	MIX2 levels	26	1	44	4.67	3.37	24.9%	12.2%	—	K 20.1% · BB 16.4% · FIP 4.78
2023	23	MIX2 levels	23	0	33	7.56	4.63	16.0%	10.4%	—	K 13.4% · BB 12.8% · FIP 4.40
2024	24	ANYM	22	0	28	5.79	5.92	13.0%	15.2%	—	K 9.7% · BB 18.0% · FIP 7.06
2027PROJ	27	MLBNYM	16	0	17	4.87	4.87	21.3%	12.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ36% MLB	28	MLBNYM	7	0	7	4.86	4.90	21.3%	11.9%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsSpencer Bivens (age 28) · Joe Colón J (age 27) · Luis Mateo (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%21.3%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%9.2%

Proj IP17

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 2	4	4	9	46	5	14	0	100%	2.3	10.9%	30.4%	-19.6%	0.0%	11.57	6.04	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 2	4	4	9	46	5	14	0	100%	2.3	10.9%	30.4%	-19.6%	0.0%	11.57	6.53	—
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	14	7	31	145	39	14	2	50%	2.2	18.3%	12.1%	6.2%	2.0%	5.52	4.19	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	14	7	31	145	39	14	2	50%	2.2	26.9%	9.7%	17.2%	1.4%	5.52	2.78	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	1	44	205	51	25	3	4%	1.7	20.1%	16.4%	3.7%	2.4%	4.67	4.78	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	1	44	205	51	25	3	4%	1.7	24.9%	12.2%	12.7%	1.5%	4.67	3.37	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	33	163	26	17	4	0%	1.4	13.4%	12.8%	0.6%	1.5%	7.56	4.40	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	33	163	26	17	4	0%	1.4	16.0%	10.4%	5.5%	2.5%	7.56	4.63	—
2024	24	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	22	0	28	138	18	21	4	0%	1.3	9.7%	18.0%	-8.3%	4.6%	5.79	7.06	—
2024	24	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	22	0	28	138	18	21	4	0%	1.3	9.7%	18.0%	-8.3%	4.6%	5.79	7.06	—
2024	24	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	22	0	28	138	18	21	4	0%	1.3	13.0%	15.2%	-2.2%	2.9%	5.79	5.92	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	NYM	16	0	17	72	15	9	2	0%	1.1	21.3%	12.0%	9.2%	3.0%	4.87	4.87	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	NYM	19	0	20	84	18	10	3	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.9%	9.4%	3.1%	4.86	4.90	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	NYM	7	0	7	30	6	4	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	11.9%	9.4%	3.1%	4.86	4.90	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	4	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	11.9%	9.4%	3.1%	4.86	4.52	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	110	28	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.9%	9.4%	3.1%	4.86	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		89	12	146	697	108	111	16	13%	1.6	15.5%	15.9%	-0.4%	2.4%	6.16	5.10	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	16	200	955	148	152	23	13%	1.6	15.5%	15.9%	-0.4%	2.4%	6.16	5.10	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Alfonseca (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	21.3%	12.0%	3.0%	—	4.90	21.3%	9.4%	20	+0.03	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	84
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	83
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	82
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	81
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	81
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	81
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	80
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	80
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	80
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	80
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	80
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	80
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	80
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	79
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	79
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	79
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	79
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	79
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	79
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	78