Will Brian — OGILVIE

Will Brian P Somerset Patriots

Age 27 LHP 5'11" / 236 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.68

FIP4.68

K%20.8%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	0	2	9	5	1	0	0%	1.0	55.6%	11.1%	44.4%	0.0%	9.00	-0.18	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	0	2	9	5	1	0	0%	1.0	55.6%	11.1%	44.4%	0.0%	9.00	-0.40	—
2023	24	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	2	2	6	31	8	10	0	100%	3.2	25.8%	32.3%	-6.5%	0.0%	4.26	5.01	—
2023	24	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	2	2	6	31	8	10	0	100%	3.2	25.8%	32.3%	-6.5%	0.0%	4.26	5.01	—
2023	24	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	2	2	6	31	8	10	0	100%	3.2	25.8%	32.3%	-6.5%	0.0%	4.26	5.31	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	0	4	16	5	1	0	0%	1.8	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	0.0%	7.36	1.25	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	0	4	16	5	1	0	0%	1.8	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	0.0%	7.36	1.25	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	0	4	16	5	1	0	0%	1.8	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	0.0%	7.36	1.19	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	43	181	50	19	1	3%	1.3	19.9%	12.8%	7.1%	0.8%	2.08	3.45	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	43	181	50	19	1	3%	1.3	19.9%	12.8%	7.1%	0.8%	2.08	3.45	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	1	43	181	50	19	1	3%	1.3	27.6%	10.5%	17.1%	0.6%	2.08	2.41	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	37	1	46	198	60	25	4	3%	1.2	24.7%	12.4%	12.4%	2.4%	3.91	3.88	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	37	1	46	198	60	25	4	3%	1.2	24.7%	12.4%	12.4%	2.4%	3.91	3.88	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	NYY	21	0	28	119	40	10	3	0%	1.3	33.6%	8.4%	25.2%	2.5%	4.23	2.71	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	NYY	16	1	18	79	20	15	1	6%	1.1	25.3%	19.0%	6.3%	1.3%	3.44	4.06	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	NYY	20	0	21	89	19	10	2	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.8%	9.1%	2.8%	4.69	4.73	-0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	NYY	8	0	8	34	7	4	1	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.8%	9.1%	2.8%	4.69	4.73	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	33	7	4	1	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.8%	9.1%	2.8%	4.69	4.35	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	101	25	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.8%	9.1%	2.8%	4.69	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		76	4	101	435	103	60	6	5%	1.3	23.7%	13.7%	10.0%	1.4%	3.37	3.60	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		150	8	200	859	203	118	12	5%	1.3	23.7%	13.7%	10.0%	1.4%	3.37	3.60	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Brian (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	20.8%	11.9%	2.6%	—	4.73	20.9%	9.1%	21	+0.05	—	—	—
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	84
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	84
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	84
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	83
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	82
Ashur Tolliver L 2015 · 3.49 FIP	27	SU	3.49	19.8%	12.8%	0.8%	.312	4.58	17.8%	3.7%	76	+1.09	3.49	134	81
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	81
Braulio Lara L 2016 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	17.7%	11.0%	2.5%	.289	5.80	19.8%	2.0%	40	+1.45	3.96	118	80
Bryan Harper L 2016 · 4.13 FIP	26	SU	4.13	19.3%	9.6%	2.6%	.197	4.63	14.9%	1.0%	46	+0.50	4.13	133	80
Tony Cingrani L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	18.1%	13.3%	1.7%	.271	3.50	32.4%	26.1%	65	-0.69	1.68	186	80
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	80
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	80
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	79
Adrian Gusman L 2019 · 4.31 FIP	27	SU	4.31	17.9%	9.7%	2.7%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	141	79
Josh Edgin L 2016 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	22.1%	13.2%	1.3%	.359	3.81	23.2%	13.6%	80	+0.17	3.63	113	79
Brad Kuntz L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	26	SU	4.10	20.9%	11.7%	2.4%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	2.35	197	78
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	78
Andy Oliver L 2015 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	23.4%	16.9%	1.6%	.283	4.56	19.2%	8.6%	108	+0.40	3.93	165	78
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	77
Tom Windle L 2019 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.7%	12.9%	1.1%	.272	5.88	11.7%	-9.3%	23	+2.20	3.68	330	77