Will Childers

P Nashville Sounds

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	43	0	52	4.15	2.98	25.2%	8.1%	—	K 20.1% · BB 9.0% · FIP 3.60
2025	24	MIX2 levels	54	0	65	3.20	4.03	25.6%	13.2%	—	K 21.1% · BB 13.1% · FIP 4.43
2026	25	MIX2 levels	36	1	39	4.35	5.06	19.5%	7.7%	—	K 15.3% · BB 8.0% · FIP 5.72
2027PROJ	26	MLBMIL	25	0	26	5.08	5.08	18.2%	10.1%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	27	MLBMIL	23	0	24	5.02	5.04	18.7%	10.1%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	28	MLBMIL	33	0	35	5.03	5.07	19.0%	10.2%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsCasey Fien (age 25) · Josh Zeid (age 26) · Scott Proctor (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 113

ERA5.08

FIP5.08

K%18.2%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%8.1%

Proj IP26

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	14	8	59	263	42	27	7	57%	4.2	11.8%	12.1%	-0.3%	3.2%	5.95	5.41	—
2023	22	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	14	8	59	263	42	27	7	57%	4.2	16.0%	10.3%	5.7%	2.7%	5.95	4.59	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	52	222	56	18	4	0%	1.2	20.1%	9.0%	11.1%	1.9%	4.15	3.60	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	52	222	56	18	4	0%	1.2	20.1%	9.0%	11.1%	1.9%	4.15	3.60	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	52	222	56	18	4	0%	1.2	25.2%	8.1%	17.1%	1.8%	4.15	2.98	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	65	266	68	35	7	0%	1.2	21.1%	13.1%	8.0%	2.6%	3.20	4.43	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	65	266	68	35	7	0%	1.2	21.1%	13.1%	8.0%	2.6%	3.20	4.43	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	65	266	68	35	7	0%	1.2	25.6%	13.2%	12.4%	2.6%	3.20	4.03	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	1	39	169	33	13	8	3%	1.1	15.3%	8.0%	7.3%	5.3%	4.35	5.72	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	1	39	169	33	13	8	3%	1.1	15.3%	8.0%	7.3%	5.3%	4.35	5.72	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	1	39	169	33	13	8	3%	1.1	19.5%	7.7%	11.8%	4.7%	4.35	5.06	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	MIL	25	0	26	110	20	11	4	0%	1.0	18.2%	10.1%	8.1%	3.4%	5.08	5.08	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIL	55	0	57	242	45	24	8	0%	1.0	18.7%	10.1%	8.6%	3.4%	5.02	5.04	-0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIL	53	0	56	235	45	24	8	0%	1.0	19.0%	10.2%	8.8%	3.5%	5.03	5.07	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIL	23	0	24	101	19	10	3	0%	1.0	18.7%	10.1%	8.6%	3.4%	5.02	5.04	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIL	33	0	35	148	28	15	5	0%	1.1	19.0%	10.2%	8.8%	3.5%	5.03	5.07	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	250	47	25	9	0%	1.1	18.9%	10.2%	8.7%	3.4%	5.03	4.68	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	159	85	30	0%	1.1	18.9%	10.2%	8.7%	3.4%	5.03	4.68	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		147	9	215	920	158	100	29	6%	1.5	17.1%	10.9%	6.3%	3.1%	4.40	4.75	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	8	200	856	147	93	27	6%	1.5	17.1%	10.9%	6.3%	3.1%	4.40	4.75	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Childers (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.08	18.2%	10.1%	3.4%	—	5.05	18.8%	8.7%	113	-0.03	—	—	—
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	90
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	89
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	87
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	87
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	87
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	86
Zach Bryant R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	26	SU	4.85	18.0%	9.6%	3.7%	.313	4.87	16.1%	5.0%	106	+0.02	4.51	215	86
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	86
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	85
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	85
Woo-Suk Go R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	17.3%	8.8%	3.7%	.359	4.16	21.5%	10.2%	64	-0.64	3.57	116	85
Aaron Kurcz R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	15.4%	8.4%	3.6%	.301	3.97	26.2%	21.8%	50	-0.87	3.31	213	85
Greg Burke R 2009 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	16.2%	8.8%	2.0%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	85
Jonathan Hughes R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	17.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.283	3.54	17.1%	4.9%	50	-0.77	3.44	219	85
Chris Hatcher R 2012 · 5.60 FIP	27	SU	5.60	15.2%	9.1%	4.8%	.298	2.68	26.4%	20.9%	95	-2.92	2.51	246	84
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	84
Ryan Middendorf R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	19.1%	9.0%	4.0%	.293	4.41	12.7%	-1.1%	34	-0.43	1.27	164	84
Greg Aquino R 2004 · 4.39 FIP	26	SU	4.39	17.7%	10.2%	2.7%	.196	4.57	22.3%	12.7%	94	+0.18	4.10	154	84
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	84
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	18.7%	10.2%	1.32	5.04
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*