Chris Villaman — OGILVIE

Chris Villaman P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 26 LHP 6'2" / 217 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 22 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%20.4%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	23	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	13	8	49	180	57	7	2	62%	3.7	23.4%	4.6%	18.8%	1.8%	2.03	2.66	—
2024	23	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	13	8	49	180	57	7	2	62%	3.7	23.4%	4.6%	18.8%	1.8%	2.03	2.66	—
2024	23	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	13	8	49	180	57	7	2	62%	3.7	31.7%	3.9%	27.8%	1.1%	2.03	1.72	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	35	158	32	12	6	0%	1.5	16.1%	8.5%	7.6%	5.4%	5.66	5.81	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	35	158	32	12	6	0%	1.5	16.1%	8.5%	7.6%	5.4%	5.66	5.81	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	35	158	32	12	6	0%	1.5	20.3%	7.6%	12.7%	3.8%	5.66	4.53	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TB	21	0	22	93	19	7	3	0%	1.0	20.4%	8.0%	12.4%	3.1%	4.48	4.48	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TB	30	0	31	131	27	11	4	0%	1.0	20.7%	8.2%	12.5%	3.2%	4.49	4.51	+0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	TB	10	0	11	46	10	4	1	0%	1.1	20.7%	8.2%	12.5%	3.2%	4.49	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	48	10	4	2	0%	1.0	20.7%	8.2%	12.5%	3.2%	4.49	4.13	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	70	35	0%	1.1	20.7%	8.2%	12.5%	3.2%	4.49	4.13	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		36	8	84	338	68	22	12	22%	2.3	20.0%	6.4%	13.6%	3.5%	3.55	4.13	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	19	200	808	162	52	28	22%	2.3	20.0%	6.4%	13.6%	3.5%	3.55	4.13	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chris Villaman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	20.4%	8.0%	3.1%	—	4.51	20.7%	12.5%	31	+0.03	—	—	—
Pedro Feliciano L 2003 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.7%	8.3%	2.3%	.309	3.52	20.2%	11.1%	79	-0.22	2.69	378	81
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	81
Wesley Wright L 2010 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	19.6%	8.8%	4.2%	.310	3.38	23.9%	16.5%	106	-1.47	3.03	375	79
Braulio Lara L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	16.7%	8.7%	2.1%	.367	5.20	18.9%	3.9%	67	+1.24	3.96	118	78
Chris Narveson L 2009 · 4.01 FIP	27	SW	4.01	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.277	4.00	18.5%	10.0%	329	-0.01	4.00	625	78
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	77
Tyler Holton L 2022 · 4.30 FIP	26	SU	4.30	20.7%	9.8%	3.1%	.288	3.67	21.7%	16.8%	258	-0.63	2.97	439	77
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	76
Colton Turner L 2017 · 3.55 FIP	26	SU	3.55	19.6%	5.4%	2.6%	.311	3.84	21.9%	13.0%	158	+0.29	2.79	325	76
Michael Johnson L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	26	SU	4.20	21.7%	9.5%	3.1%	.272	5.19	13.4%	3.4%	67	+0.99	3.92	256	75
Greg Nappo L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	26	SU	3.37	22.7%	7.5%	2.2%	.267	5.25	16.5%	5.9%	79	+1.88	3.37	144	75
David Speer L 2019 · 4.06 FIP	26	SU	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	2.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	293	75
Carson Teel L 2022 · 4.26 FIP	26	SU	4.26	17.7%	7.1%	3.2%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	248	75
Everett Teaford L 2011 · 5.47 FIP	27	SU	5.47	16.0%	8.0%	4.9%	.224	5.47	13.3%	5.3%	61	+0.00	4.42	208	74
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	74
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	74
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	73
Reid Love L 2018 · 3.98 FIP	26	SW	3.98	19.6%	7.2%	3.0%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	280	73
James Reeves L 2019 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	22.4%	10.3%	2.2%	.226	5.11	27.0%	10.8%	51	+1.37	2.02	280	73
Aaron Fultz L 2000 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.7%	9.4%	2.7%	.294	3.88	19.4%	12.5%	180	-0.12	3.46	480	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	20.5%	8.1%	1.22	4.49
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44