Juan Martinez

P Quad Cities River Bandits

Age 26 RHP 5'11" / 195 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	21	ROKKC	8	0	8	8.64	3.46	36.2%	17.0%	—	K 36.2% · BB 17.0% · FIP 3.37
2024	23	MIX2 levels	20	1	31	5.28	4.18	21.6%	12.9%	—	K 15.4% · BB 15.7% · FIP 5.54
2025	24	A+KC	36	1	52	2.08	3.20	22.4%	9.5%	—	K 17.2% · BB 11.0% · FIP 4.03
2027PROJ	26	MLBKC	67	0	70	5.20	5.20	17.1%	12.4%	-0.5
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBKC	24	0	25	5.13	5.15	17.7%	12.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBKC	37	0	39	5.13	5.17	18.0%	12.1%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control45Command40

CompsD.J. Carrasco (age 26) · Justin Courtney (age 26) · Roman Phansalkar (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.20

FIP5.20

K%17.1%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%4.7%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals 2	13	0	20	109	13	13	2	0%	1.5	8.1%	14.9%	-6.8%	2.6%	10.35	5.71	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals 2	13	0	20	109	13	13	2	0%	1.5	11.9%	11.9%	0.0%	1.8%	10.35	5.05	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	11	2	20	90	23	15	1	18%	1.8	17.4%	20.8%	-3.5%	1.6%	1.83	5.12	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Blue	11	2	20	90	23	15	1	18%	1.8	25.6%	16.7%	8.9%	1.1%	1.83	3.71	—
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	8	0	8	47	17	8	1	0%	1.0	36.2%	17.0%	19.1%	2.1%	8.64	3.37	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	8	0	8	47	17	8	1	0%	1.0	36.2%	17.0%	19.1%	2.1%	8.64	3.46	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	1	31	139	30	18	3	5%	1.5	15.4%	15.7%	-0.3%	3.2%	5.28	5.54	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	1	31	139	30	18	3	5%	1.5	15.4%	15.7%	-0.3%	3.2%	5.28	5.54	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	1	31	139	30	18	3	5%	1.5	21.6%	12.9%	8.6%	2.2%	5.28	4.18	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	36	1	52	210	47	20	3	3%	1.4	17.2%	11.0%	6.3%	1.8%	2.08	4.03	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	36	1	52	210	47	20	3	3%	1.4	17.2%	11.0%	6.3%	1.8%	2.08	4.03	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	36	1	52	210	47	20	3	3%	1.4	22.4%	9.5%	12.9%	1.4%	2.08	3.20	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	KC	67	0	70	296	51	37	9	0%	1.0	17.1%	12.4%	4.7%	2.9%	5.20	5.20	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	KC	66	0	69	291	52	35	9	0%	1.0	17.7%	12.2%	5.6%	3.0%	5.13	5.15	-0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	KC	64	0	67	282	51	34	9	0%	1.0	18.0%	12.1%	5.9%	3.1%	5.13	5.17	-0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	KC	61	0	64	270	49	33	9	0%	1.0	18.1%	12.2%	5.9%	3.2%	5.19	5.26	-0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	KC	24	0	25	106	19	13	3	0%	1.0	17.7%	12.2%	5.6%	3.0%	5.13	5.15	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	KC	37	0	39	165	30	20	5	0%	1.1	18.0%	12.1%	5.9%	3.1%	5.13	5.17	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	KC	43	0	45	190	34	23	6	0%	1.0	18.1%	12.2%	5.9%	3.2%	5.19	5.26	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		104	0	110	463	83	56	14	0%	1.1	18.0%	12.1%	5.8%	3.1%	5.15	4.82	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	151	102	26	0%	1.1	18.0%	12.1%	5.8%	3.1%	5.15	4.82	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		88	4	131	595	99	88	13	5%	1.5	16.6%	14.8%	1.9%	2.3%	4.48	4.80	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		135	6	200	911	152	134	21	5%	1.5	16.6%	14.8%	1.9%	2.3%	4.48	4.80	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	17.1%	12.4%	2.9%	—	5.19	17.9%	5.8%	200	-0.01	—	—	—
D.J. Carrasco R 2003 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	16.1%	10.1%	2.2%	.291	4.66	10.5%	1.4%	150	+0.39	3.23	490	90
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	88
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	88
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	88
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	88
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	87
Brad Schreiber R 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SU	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	171	87
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	86
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	86
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	86
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	85
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	85
Chris Jefferson R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	26	SU	4.45	16.6%	11.8%	2.3%	.333	5.65	16.4%	2.8%	46	+1.20	3.53	140	85
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	85
Raul Fernandez R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	13.6%	9.3%	2.2%	.270	5.54	20.4%	6.2%	38	+1.19	4.03	165	84
Jake Johansen R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	26	SU	4.65	15.9%	12.1%	2.5%	.273	3.65	12.8%	4.9%	48	-1.00	3.65	162	84
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	25	SU	4.59	15.1%	10.4%	2.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	218	84
Tyler Mizenko R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	13.3%	10.2%	3.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	104	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	84
Dusty Isaacs R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	26	SU	5.26	19.3%	14.1%	3.7%	.287	3.16	26.8%	20.6%	26	-2.10	3.16	253	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	17.7%	12.2%	1.17	5.16
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*