Francis Rivera

P Spokane Indians

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 160 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	24	A+COL	35	39	5.31	4.72	22.1%	9.3%	—	K 17.0% · BB 10.7% · FIP 5.81
2026	25	A+COL	28	51	4.03	4.81	20.5%	11.2%	—	K 15.8% · BB 12.8% · FIP 5.95
2027PROJ	26	MLBCOL	31	33	5.33	5.33	17.7%	11.8%	-0.3
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBCOL	16	17	5.25	5.26	18.3%	11.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ59% MLB	28	MLBCOL	25	26	5.24	5.28	18.5%	11.6%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsCasey Fien (age 25) · Scott Proctor (age 27) · Francisco Rodriguez (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.33

FIP5.33

K%17.7%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%5.9%

Proj IP33

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	29	0	33	156	33	10	1	0%	1.1	14.4%	8.0%	6.4%	0.9%	3.55	3.39	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	29	0	33	156	33	10	1	0%	1.1	21.2%	6.4%	14.7%	0.6%	3.55	2.40	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	23	0	24	110	35	12	0	0%	1.0	21.6%	13.6%	8.0%	0.0%	4.94	3.00	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	23	0	24	110	35	12	0	0%	1.0	31.8%	10.9%	20.9%	0.0%	4.94	1.66	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	36	166	36	10	1	0%	1.2	15.2%	7.4%	7.9%	0.9%	3.47	3.25	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	36	166	36	10	1	0%	1.2	21.7%	6.0%	15.7%	0.6%	3.47	2.30	—
2024	23	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	8	2	8	39	9	5	0	25%	1.0	23.1%	12.8%	10.3%	0.0%	8.22	2.78	—
2024	23	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	8	2	8	39	9	5	0	25%	1.0	23.1%	12.8%	10.3%	0.0%	8.22	2.78	—
2024	23	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	8	2	8	39	9	5	0	25%	1.0	23.1%	12.8%	10.3%	0.0%	8.22	2.71	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	35	0	39	172	38	16	7	0%	1.1	17.0%	10.7%	6.3%	5.1%	5.31	5.81	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	35	0	39	172	38	16	7	0%	1.1	17.0%	10.7%	6.3%	5.1%	5.31	5.81	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	35	0	39	172	38	16	7	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.3%	12.8%	4.1%	5.31	4.72	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	28	0	51	215	44	24	8	0%	1.8	15.8%	12.8%	2.9%	4.7%	4.03	5.95	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	28	0	51	215	44	24	8	0%	1.8	15.8%	12.8%	2.9%	4.7%	4.03	5.95	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	28	0	51	215	44	24	8	0%	1.8	20.5%	11.2%	9.3%	3.7%	4.03	4.81	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	COL	31	0	33	139	25	16	5	0%	1.1	17.7%	11.8%	5.9%	3.4%	5.33	5.33	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	COL	43	0	46	192	35	22	6	0%	1.1	18.3%	11.6%	6.6%	3.4%	5.25	5.26	-0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	COL	42	0	44	186	34	22	6	0%	1.1	18.5%	11.6%	6.9%	3.5%	5.24	5.28	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	COL	16	0	17	72	13	8	2	0%	1.1	18.3%	11.6%	6.6%	3.4%	5.25	5.26	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	COL	25	0	26	110	20	13	4	0%	1.0	18.5%	11.6%	6.9%	3.5%	5.24	5.28	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	0	43	180	33	21	6	0%	1.0	18.4%	11.6%	6.8%	3.4%	5.24	4.89	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	155	98	28	0%	1.1	18.4%	11.6%	6.8%	3.4%	5.24	4.89	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		154	2	191	858	144	91	22	1%	1.2	16.7%	10.6%	6.2%	2.5%	4.38	4.41	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		161	2	200	898	150	95	23	1%	1.2	16.7%	10.6%	6.2%	2.5%	4.38	4.41	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Francis Rivera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.33	17.7%	11.8%	3.4%	—	5.27	18.4%	6.8%	90	-0.06	—	—	—
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	91
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	91
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	89
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	89
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	89
Jake Johansen R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	26	SU	4.65	15.9%	12.1%	2.5%	.273	3.65	12.8%	4.9%	48	-1.00	3.65	162	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	86
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	86
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	85
Adrian Garza R 2015 · 5.47 FIP	27	SU	5.47	14.9%	10.5%	4.2%	.360	4.17	13.1%	6.5%	84	-1.30	3.94	229	85
Morgan McSweeney R 2023 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.1%	12.6%	3.7%	.256	3.56	16.9%	9.7%	85	-1.57	3.20	213	85
Davison Palermo R 2024 · 5.31 FIP	24	SU	5.31	16.3%	11.2%	4.0%	.261	4.90	19.8%	7.4%	136	-0.41	4.32	220	85
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	85
Tyler Mizenko R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	13.3%	10.2%	3.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	104	84
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	84
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	84
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	84
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	84
Greg Aquino R 2004 · 4.39 FIP	26	SU	4.39	17.7%	10.2%	2.7%	.196	4.57	22.3%	12.7%	94	+0.18	4.10	154	84
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	41	18.2%	11.7%	1.32	5.27
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*