Alvin Guzman
P
Visalia Rawhide
+0.2
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 166 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.53
FIP4.53
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.0%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%11.5%
IP40
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.91 | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 33 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 46 | 25 | 3 | 16.4% | 14.7% | 1.4% | 2.64 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 38 | 18 | 5 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 22.6% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 22.8% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 22.9% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 22.8% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 22.7% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 22.5% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 34 | 16 | 5 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 31 | 15 | 5 | 21.7% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.72 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 29 | 14 | 5 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.82 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 27 | 14 | 4 | 20.9% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 4.93 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 28 | — | 28 | 119 | 24 | 13 | 4 | 20.5% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 5.06 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 37 | 0 | 51 | 220 | 38 | 33 | 3 | 17.4% | 14.9% | 1.3% | 2.81 | 4.24 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 144 | 0 | 200 | 857 | 148 | 129 | 12 | 17.4% | 14.9% | 1.3% | 2.81 | 4.24 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alvin Guzman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.39 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 123 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 93 |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 93 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 92 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .260 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 283 | 90 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .239 | 5.62 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.91 | 3.71 | 325 | 90 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .282 | 5.28 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.56 | 3.72 | 105 | 90 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.53 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.08 | 3.01 | 214 | 90 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.46 | 3.49 | 140 | 89 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 3.00 | 24.2% | 12.6% | 70 | -1.56 | 2.12 | 117 | 89 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 89 |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.86 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .314 | 4.51 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.35 | 4.05 | 164 | 89 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.62 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .233 | 3.64 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.98 | 3.54 | 156 | 88 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.48 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.6% | .316 | 4.40 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +0.92 | 3.48 | 142 | 88 |
| Cameron Gann R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.37 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.16 | 3.60 | 146 | 88 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 88 |
| Roman Mendez R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 87 |
| Cole Gordon R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .243 | 5.19 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.09 | 4.10 | 112 | 87 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 87 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.37 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.86 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.49 | 4.37 | 412 | 86 |
| Sam Carlson R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.59 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 1.9% | .302 | 3.45 | 22.4% | 10.4% | 108 | -0.14 | 3.20 | 313 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.5M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $3M | $3M | -$0.1M | ||