Alvin Guzman — OGILVIE

Alvin Guzman P Visalia Rawhide

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 166 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 28 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

K%20.4%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%7.5%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	4	0	4	18	5	3	0	0%	0.9	27.8%	16.7%	11.1%	0.0%	4.91	2.87	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	4	0	4	18	5	3	0	0%	0.9	27.8%	16.7%	11.1%	0.0%	4.91	2.87	—
2024	22	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	4	0	4	18	5	3	0	0%	0.9	27.8%	16.7%	11.1%	0.0%	4.91	2.83	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	48	202	46	25	3	0%	1.4	16.4%	14.7%	1.7%	1.5%	2.64	4.40	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	48	202	46	25	3	0%	1.4	16.4%	14.7%	1.7%	1.5%	2.64	4.40	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	48	202	46	25	3	0%	1.4	22.8%	12.4%	10.4%	1.5%	2.64	3.56	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	ARI	27	0	28	118	24	15	3	0%	1.0	20.4%	12.9%	7.5%	2.9%	5.01	5.01	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	41	0	43	181	38	23	5	0%	1.0	21.0%	12.5%	8.4%	2.9%	4.92	4.91	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	17	0	18	76	16	10	2	0%	1.1	21.0%	12.5%	8.4%	2.8%	4.83	4.82	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	77	16	10	2	0%	1.1	21.0%	12.5%	8.4%	2.8%	4.83	4.44	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	174	109	22	0%	1.1	21.0%	12.5%	8.4%	2.8%	4.83	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		37	0	51	220	38	33	3	0%	1.4	17.4%	14.9%	2.5%	1.4%	2.81	4.28	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		144	0	200	857	149	127	12	0%	1.4	17.4%	14.9%	2.5%	1.4%	2.81	4.28	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alvin Guzman (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	20.4%	12.9%	2.9%	—	4.91	21.0%	8.4%	43	-0.10	—	—	—
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	92
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	88
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	87
Rhiner Cruz R 2012 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	18.2%	11.5%	3.2%	.335	4.81	10.2%	-1.0%	21	+0.01	3.21	127	87
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	87
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	87
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	87
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	87
Luis Vizcaino R 2000 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	18.8%	11.5%	2.1%	.354	4.31	22.7%	14.9%	180	+0.20	3.07	564	87
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	87
Morgan McSweeney R 2023 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.1%	12.6%	3.7%	.256	3.56	16.9%	9.7%	85	-1.57	3.20	213	86
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	86
Tyler Mitzel R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	20.8%	12.0%	2.1%	.323	4.14	23.4%	17.9%	58	+0.11	4.03	142	86
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	86
Vinnie Chulk R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	17.7%	10.5%	2.4%	.308	3.95	16.9%	9.6%	171	-0.31	2.97	271	86
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	86
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	86
Esmerling Vasquez R 2009 · 3.86 FIP	25	SU	3.86	18.9%	11.3%	1.7%	.296	4.30	17.3%	4.7%	116	+0.44	3.70	204	86
Garrett Apker R 2024 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	19.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.288	8.46	15.4%	-7.6%	11	+4.45	4.01	101	85
Will Latcham R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	25	SU	4.30	18.8%	11.5%	2.4%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	134	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	36	20.8%	12.7%	1.14	4.96
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44