Tim Herrin

P Cleveland Guardians

Age 30 LHP 6'6" / 230 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MLBCLE	75	0	66	1.92	2.52	26.5%	9.3%	1.6
2025	28	MIX2 levels	62	0	51	4.62	4.28	23.8%	13.2%	0.2	K 23.2% · BB 14.4% · FIP 4.39
2026	29	MIX3 levels	69	2	58	3.41	3.62	23.5%	10.9%	0.6	K 22.5% · BB 10.4% · FIP 3.67
2027PROJ	30	MLBCLE	48	0	50	4.08	4.33	24.4%	11.9%	0.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBCLE	30	0	31	4.37	4.56	23.6%	12.3%	-0.0
2029PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBCLE	20	0	21	4.64	4.82	22.8%	12.7%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs58

FB Velo52

K%52

Form2.35 ERA (proj 4.08) · K 28.0% (proj 24.4%) · BB 9.7% (proj 11.9%) ▲ last 90d · 23 IP through Oct 27

CompsJustin Wilson (age 30) · Raul Valdes (age 32) · Ryan Buchter (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 94102vR 110

ERA4.08

FIP4.33

K%24.4%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%12.4%

Proj IP50

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3030

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p8430.7%

p5222.5%

xwOBA vs

p580.304

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	AZL Indians 1	13	0	19	92	22	7	1	0%	1.5	16.3%	9.5%	6.8%	1.5%	6.16	3.77	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	AZL Indians 1	13	0	19	92	22	7	1	0%	1.5	23.9%	7.6%	16.3%	1.1%	6.16	2.57	—
2019	22	A MLE	Lake County Captains	12	0	26	109	19	12	3	0%	2.2	12.9%	13.0%	-0.1%	3.6%	4.85	5.64	—
2019	22	A RAW	Lake County Captains	12	0	26	109	19	12	3	0%	2.2	17.4%	11.0%	6.4%	2.8%	4.85	4.52	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	36	0	74	309	85	32	3	0%	2.0	21.2%	11.9%	9.3%	1.0%	2.57	3.36	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	36	0	74	309	85	32	3	0%	2.0	27.5%	10.4%	17.2%	1.0%	2.57	2.62	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	2	69	296	101	23	7	4%	1.5	29.2%	8.3%	20.9%	2.6%	4.02	3.13	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	2	69	296	101	23	7	4%	1.5	34.1%	7.8%	26.4%	2.4%	4.02	2.49	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	65	270	75	32	6	0%	1.2	25.5%	11.1%	14.4%	2.3%	4.29	3.61	+0.7
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	65	270	75	32	6	0%	1.2	27.8%	11.9%	15.9%	2.2%	4.29	3.47	+0.8
2024	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	75	0	66	257	68	24	2	0%	0.9	26.5%	9.3%	17.1%	0.8%	1.92	2.48	+1.6
2024	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	75	0	66	257	68	24	2	0%	0.9	26.5%	9.3%	17.1%	0.8%	1.92	2.48	+1.6
2024	27	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	75	0	66	257	68	24	2	0%	0.9	26.5%	9.3%	17.1%	0.8%	1.92	2.52	+1.6
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	51	227	54	30	6	0%	0.8	23.2%	14.4%	8.8%	2.6%	4.62	4.39	+0.1
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	51	227	54	30	6	0%	0.8	23.2%	14.4%	8.8%	2.6%	4.62	4.39	+0.1
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	0	51	227	54	30	6	0%	0.8	23.8%	13.2%	10.6%	2.6%	4.62	4.28	+0.2
2026	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	69	2	58	247	58	27	5	3%	0.8	22.5%	10.4%	12.1%	2.1%	3.41	3.67	+0.6
2026	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	69	2	58	247	58	27	5	3%	0.8	22.5%	10.4%	12.1%	2.1%	3.41	3.67	+0.6
2026	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	69	2	58	247	58	27	5	3%	0.8	23.5%	10.9%	12.6%	2.0%	3.41	3.62	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			219	0	193	812	199	89	15	0%	0.9	24.5%	11.0%	13.5%	1.8%	3.41	3.43	+2.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	CLE	48	0	50	211	51	25	5	0%	1.0	24.4%	11.9%	12.4%	2.5%	4.08	4.33	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	CLE	31	0	33	139	33	17	4	0%	1.1	23.6%	12.3%	11.3%	2.8%	4.37	4.56	-0.0
2029	32	MLB MLE	CLE	21	0	22	92	21	12	3	0%	1.0	22.8%	12.7%	10.2%	3.0%	4.64	4.82	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	CLE	30	0	31	131	31	16	4	0%	1.0	23.6%	12.3%	11.3%	2.8%	4.37	4.56	-0.0
2029	32	MLB CTX	CLE	20	0	21	89	20	11	3	0%	1.1	22.8%	12.7%	10.2%	3.0%	4.64	4.82	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		268	0	245	1031	250	116	21	0%	0.9	24.3%	11.3%	13.0%	2.1%	3.64	3.61	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		220	0	200	843	204	95	17	0%	0.9	24.3%	11.3%	13.0%	2.1%	3.64	3.61	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		369	4	427	1807	426	197	35	1%	1.2	23.6%	10.9%	12.7%	2.0%	3.62	3.56	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		173	2	200	846	199	92	17	1%	1.2	23.6%	10.9%	12.7%	2.0%	3.62	3.56	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAColumbus Clippers · 8 IPFIP 3.23 → 3.49 (+0.26)K% 27.3% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.860	23.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.06%	—	×0.900	5.45%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.093	×1.100	3.05%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 3.23 → 3.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAColumbus Clippers · 37 IPFIP 3.47 → 3.71 (+0.24)K% 28.9% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.86%	—	×0.860	24.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.42%	—	×0.900	12.08%
HR / BF /BF	2.01%	÷1.037	×1.100	2.14%

Result: FIP 3.47 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAColumbus Clippers · 47 IPFIP 3.12 → 3.64 (+0.52)K% 30.9% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.92%	—	×0.880	27.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.21%	—	×1.050	8.62%
HR / BF /BF	2.90%	÷1.001	×1.100	3.19%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.12 → 3.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAkron RubberDucks · 22 IPFIP 1.06 → 1.93 (+0.87)K% 41.6% → 33.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.57%	—	×0.810	33.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.74%	—	×1.100	7.42%
HR / BF /BF	1.12%	÷1.014	×1.200	1.33%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 1.06 → 1.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Lake County Captains · 74 IPFIP 2.62 → 3.36 (+0.74)K% 27.5% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.51%	—	×0.770	21.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.36%	—	×1.150	11.91%
HR / BF /BF	0.97%	÷1.222	×1.250	0.99%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 144).

Result: FIP 2.62 → 3.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ALake County Captains · 26 IPFIP 4.53 → 5.64 (+1.11)K% 17.4% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.43%	—	×0.740	12.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.01%	—	×1.180	12.99%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷0.990	×1.300	3.62%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 4.53 → 5.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKAZL Indians 1 · 19 IPFIP 2.64 → 3.77 (+1.13)K% 23.9% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.91%	—	×0.680	16.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.61%	—	×1.250	9.51%
HR / BF /BF	1.09%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.52%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.64 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tim Herrin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	24.4%	11.9%	2.5%	—	4.66	23.3%	10.9%	55	+0.33	—	—	—
Justin Wilson L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	30	SU	3.56	29.2%	13.6%	2.2%	.308	3.85	24.0%	13.5%	93	+0.29	2.49	554	73
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	72
Ryan Buchter L 2017 · 4.45 FIP	30	SU	4.45	24.3%	9.3%	4.0%	.202	4.19	25.3%	15.6%	85	-0.26	2.37	296	72
Doug Slaten L 2010 · 3.22 FIP	30	SU	3.22	20.7%	9.8%	1.1%	.269	4.85	13.5%	3.1%	29	+1.63	3.22	139	70
Nick Hagadone L 2015 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	22.6%	8.9%	2.4%	.329	3.74	22.6%	13.3%	33	+0.09	2.97	141	70
Armando Almanza L 2003 · 4.95 FIP	30	SU	4.95	21.3%	10.0%	4.3%	.331	5.29	24.1%	14.8%	12	+0.34	2.90	211	70
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	69
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	2.82	432	69
Jack Taschner L 2008 · 4.09 FIP	30	SU	4.09	17.2%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	4.73	15.2%	3.0%	49	+0.64	3.14	189	68
Brian Fuentes L 2006 · 3.47 FIP	30	SU	3.47	26.6%	8.0%	2.9%	.246	3.22	24.6%	15.8%	179	-0.25	2.08	602	68
Tony Sipp L 2013 · 4.38 FIP	30	SU	4.38	24.0%	11.4%	3.4%	.271	3.74	27.3%	19.7%	149	-0.64	2.22	504	67
Clay Rapada L 2011 · 4.34 FIP	30	SU	4.34	26.1%	10.1%	3.9%	.268	3.00	24.5%	14.2%	38	-1.34	3.00	120	67
Damaso Marte L 2005 · 3.97 FIP	30	SU	3.97	25.4%	13.6%	2.4%	.320	2.99	26.1%	16.8%	169	-0.98	2.41	495	67
Brian Tallet L 2008 · 3.36 FIP	30	SU	3.36	19.6%	7.9%	1.7%	.282	5.06	16.0%	6.3%	251	+1.70	2.59	443	66
Ricardo Rincon L 2000 · 3.52 FIP	30	SU	3.52	22.2%	13.3%	1.1%	.281	3.24	20.4%	12.6%	165	-0.28	2.72	436	66
John Grabow L 2009 · 3.93 FIP	30	SU	3.93	18.2%	11.8%	1.6%	.265	5.00	14.2%	5.2%	88	+1.07	3.66	471	66
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	66
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	66
Sammy Solís L 2019 · 4.05 FIP	30	SU	4.05	26.2%	8.9%	3.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	190	65
Aaron Fultz L 2004 · 4.16 FIP	30	SU	4.16	17.1%	9.7%	2.3%	.294	3.54	18.9%	11.5%	181	-0.62	3.46	480	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	42	24.3%	11.9%	0.83	3.72
Daniel Bard ('23)	2.3	57	24.2%	12.3%	0.85	3.74
Michael Wuertz ('11)	2.1	52	25.3%	11.3%	0.96	3.71
George Sherrill ('12)	1.6	46	22.9%	11.0%	0.80	3.77
Ray Searage ('81-'90, 4 WAR*)	1.4	41	21.0%*	10.8%*	0.84*	3.70*
Dave Geisel ('78-'85, 2 WAR*)	1.0	42	23.5%*	10.6%*	0.84*	4.12*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*