Tim Herrin — OGILVIE

Tim Herrin P Cleveland Guardians

Age 29 LHP 6'6" / 230 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8795vR 103

ERA3.78

FIP3.93

K%23.9%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3030

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p9031.7%

p5122.3%

xwOBA vs

p670.295

SL+0.5 (25%)

FB (45%)

SI (24%)

CU (29%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	AZL Indians 1	13	0	19	92	22	7	1	0%	1.5	16.3%	9.5%	6.8%	1.5%	6.16	3.77	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	AZL Indians 1	13	0	19	92	22	7	1	0%	1.5	23.9%	7.6%	16.3%	1.1%	6.16	2.57	—
2019	22	A MLE	Lake County Captains	12	0	26	109	19	12	3	0%	2.2	12.9%	13.0%	-0.1%	3.6%	4.85	5.64	—
2019	22	A RAW	Lake County Captains	12	0	26	109	19	12	3	0%	2.2	17.4%	11.0%	6.4%	2.8%	4.85	4.52	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	36	0	74	309	85	32	3	0%	2.0	21.2%	11.9%	9.3%	1.0%	2.57	3.36	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	36	0	74	309	85	32	3	0%	2.0	27.5%	10.4%	17.2%	1.0%	2.57	2.62	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	2	69	296	101	23	7	4%	1.5	29.2%	8.3%	20.9%	2.6%	4.02	3.13	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	2	69	296	101	23	7	4%	1.5	34.1%	7.8%	26.4%	2.4%	4.02	2.49	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	65	270	75	32	6	0%	1.2	25.1%	11.1%	14.0%	2.3%	4.29	3.65	+0.7
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	65	270	75	32	6	0%	1.2	25.1%	11.1%	14.0%	2.3%	4.29	3.65	+0.7
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	65	270	75	32	6	0%	1.2	27.8%	11.9%	15.9%	2.2%	4.29	3.47	+0.8
2024	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	75	0	66	257	68	24	2	0%	0.9	26.5%	9.3%	17.1%	0.8%	1.92	2.48	+1.6
2024	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	75	0	66	257	68	24	2	0%	0.9	26.5%	9.3%	17.1%	0.8%	1.92	2.48	+1.6
2024	27	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	75	0	66	257	68	24	2	0%	0.9	26.5%	9.3%	17.1%	0.8%	1.92	2.52	+1.6
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	51	227	54	30	6	0%	0.8	23.2%	14.4%	8.8%	2.6%	4.62	4.39	+0.1
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	51	227	54	30	6	0%	0.8	23.2%	14.4%	8.8%	2.6%	4.62	4.39	+0.1
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	0	51	227	54	30	6	0%	0.8	23.8%	13.2%	10.6%	2.6%	4.62	4.28	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			213	0	188	787	193	86	15	0%	0.9	24.5%	10.9%	13.6%	1.9%	3.40	3.46	+2.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	63	2	53	222	52	24	5	3%	0.8	22.3%	10.2%	12.1%	2.3%	3.40	3.79	+0.5
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	63	2	53	222	52	24	5	3%	0.8	22.3%	10.2%	12.1%	2.3%	3.40	3.79	+0.5
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AA RAW	CLE	1	1	0	4	1	2	0	100%	0.3	25.0%	50.0%	-25.0%	0.0%	81.00	7.32	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	CLE	1	1	1	3	3	0	0	100%	1.0	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.00	-5.34	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	CLE	61	0	52	215	48	22	5	0%	0.8	22.3%	10.2%	12.1%	2.3%	2.96	3.79	+0.5
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	CLE	61	0	52	215	48	22	5	0%	0.8	22.3%	10.2%	12.1%	2.3%	2.96	3.79	+0.5
ROS	29	MLB MLE	CLE	4	0	5	20	5	2	0	0%	1.2	23.9%	11.8%	12.0%	2.4%	3.78	3.93	+0.0
ROS	29	MLB CTX	CLE	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	23.9%	11.8%	12.0%	2.4%	3.78	3.93	+0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	58	242	57	26	5	—	—	23.5%	10.9%	12.6%	2.3%	3.43	3.80	+0.5
FULL	29	MLB A+C	CLE	—	—	56	238	57	26	5	—	—	23.8%	11.1%	12.8%	2.3%	3.51	3.75	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	CLE	49	0	52	218	51	26	6	0%	1.1	23.5%	12.1%	11.4%	2.6%	4.33	4.47	+0.0
2028	31	MLB MLE	CLE	46	0	48	204	46	25	6	0%	1.0	22.7%	12.5%	10.3%	2.8%	4.55	4.70	-0.1
2029	32	MLB MLE	CLE	42	0	45	188	41	24	6	0%	1.1	21.9%	12.9%	9.1%	3.1%	4.79	4.96	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	CLE	47	0	49	207	49	25	5	0%	1.0	23.5%	12.1%	11.4%	2.6%	4.33	4.47	+0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	CLE	44	0	46	194	44	24	6	0%	1.0	22.7%	12.5%	10.3%	2.8%	4.55	4.70	-0.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	CLE	40	0	42	177	39	23	5	0%	1.1	21.9%	12.9%	9.1%	3.1%	4.79	4.96	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		348	0	330	1386	330	161	32	0%	0.9	23.8%	11.6%	12.2%	2.3%	3.89	3.82	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		211	0	200	841	200	98	19	0%	0.9	23.8%	11.6%	12.2%	2.3%	3.89	3.82	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		363	4	422	1782	419	194	35	1%	1.2	23.5%	10.9%	12.6%	2.0%	3.62	3.58	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		172	2	200	844	198	92	17	1%	1.2	23.5%	10.9%	12.6%	2.0%	3.62	3.58	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tim Herrin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	25.5%	12.8%	2.5%	—	4.70	22.8%	10.3%	144	+0.40	—	—	—
Jake Diekman L 2016 · 3.23 FIP	29	SU	3.23	26.7%	11.3%	1.7%	.241	3.09	28.6%	15.8%	115	-0.14	2.36	455	77
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	74
Chasen Shreve L 2019 · 3.95 FIP	29	SU	3.95	24.4%	11.1%	2.7%	.269	4.59	23.9%	13.0%	108	+0.64	3.89	470	73
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	72
Josh Smoker L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	29	SU	3.66	22.1%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	6.58	14.2%	3.4%	14	+2.92	2.71	230	72
Kevin Siegrist L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	25.0%	11.6%	2.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	176	72
Jake McGee L 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	18.5%	7.3%	3.9%	.329	3.93	22.1%	15.6%	150	-0.67	1.39	350	72
Scott Alexander L 2018 · 3.30 FIP	29	SU	3.30	20.9%	9.3%	1.4%	.290	4.64	13.3%	5.0%	45	+1.34	2.90	426	72
Justin Wilson L 2017 · 3.26 FIP	29	SU	3.26	32.3%	13.7%	2.1%	.271	3.40	27.8%	15.9%	113	+0.14	2.49	420	72
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	71
Sammy Solís L 2018 · 4.39 FIP	29	SU	4.39	24.9%	9.6%	4.0%	.330	4.05	26.2%	17.3%	23	-0.34	2.51	190	71
Antonio Bastardo L 2015 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	26.8%	10.0%	1.8%	.238	5.27	22.6%	11.3%	88	+2.17	3.10	145	70
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	70
Josh Edgin L 2016 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	22.1%	13.2%	1.3%	.359	3.81	23.2%	13.6%	80	+0.17	3.63	113	69
Wandy Peralta L 2020 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	21.9%	9.6%	2.8%	.253	3.70	21.1%	11.3%	161	-0.33	2.69	725	69
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	69
Jared Koenig L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	29	SU	4.16	20.7%	9.2%	3.0%	.364	2.92	23.7%	16.1%	146	-1.24	2.79	473	69
Adam Loewen L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	31	SU	3.84	25.1%	15.9%	1.6%	.287	3.63	23.2%	7.3%	98	-0.21	2.96	176	68
Dario Alvarez L 2018 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	20.7%	12.4%	1.0%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	160	68
Dan Runzler L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	30	SU	3.78	19.0%	13.1%	1.2%	.383	4.07	16.5%	4.0%	63	+0.29	3.78	127	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	50	23.5%	12.6%	1.06	4.44
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41