Tim Herrin
P
Cleveland Guardians
+0.3
WAR
Age 29
LHP
6'6" / 230 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA3.97
FIP4.16
xFIP6.68
SIERA5.95
K%24.3%
BB%11.5%
K-BB%12.8%
IP40
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL3030
CMD4545
K†6060
FB Velo
p5294.7
Whiff%
p7629.4%
K%
p5523.2%
xwOBA vs
p390.325
SL+0.5 (29%)
FB (43%)
SI (22%)
CU (29%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | AZL Indians 1 | 13 | 0 | 19 | 92 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 16.3% | 9.5% | 1.5% | 6.16 | 3.77 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Lake County Captains | 12 | 0 | 26 | 109 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 12.9% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 4.85 | 5.64 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 36 | 0 | 74 | 309 | 85 | 32 | 3 | 21.2% | 11.9% | 1.0% | 2.57 | 3.38 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 46 | 2 | 69 | 296 | 101 | 23 | 7 | 29.2% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 4.02 | 3.13 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 56 | 0 | 65 | 270 | 75 | 32 | 6 | 25.9% | 12.2% | 2.3% | 4.29 | 3.72 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 75 | 0 | 66 | 257 | 68 | 24 | 2 | 26.5% | 9.3% | 0.7% | 1.92 | 2.44 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 62 | 0 | 51 | 227 | 54 | 30 | 6 | 23.2% | 14.4% | 2.5% | 4.62 | 4.32 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 7 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | CLE | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 39 | 19 | 4 | 26.0% | 12.4% | 2.4% | 4.01 | 4.20 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 40 | 171 | 42 | 21 | 4 | 24.8% | 12.2% | 2.2% | 3.61 | 3.78 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 42 | 21 | 4 | 25.4% | 12.6% | 2.5% | 4.18 | 4.30 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 37 | — | 37 | 158 | 39 | 20 | 4 | 24.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | 4.31 | 4.40 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 37 | 19 | 4 | 24.2% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 34 | 19 | 4 | 23.6% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 31 | 18 | 4 | 22.9% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.69 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 29 | 17 | 4 | 22.1% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 29 | — | 29 | 121 | 26 | 17 | 4 | 21.3% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 4.99 | 5.10 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 307 | 2 | 373 | 1579 | 374 | 176 | 30 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | 3.62 | 3.55 | +7.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 164 | 1 | 200 | 846 | 200 | 94 | 16 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | 3.62 | 3.55 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tim Herrin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.20 | 26.0% | 12.4% | 2.4% | — | 4.40 | 24.8% | 12.2% | 112 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.23 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 1.7% | .241 | 3.08 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 115 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 74 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 73 |
| Boone Logan L 2027 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .352 | 3.11 | 29.7% | 20.6% | 78 | +0.06 | 2.64 | 113 | 72 |
| Yusei Kikuchi L 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.17 | 24.2% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .306 | 4.43 | 25.7% | 16.5% | 425 | +1.26 | 3.17 | 1,006 | 71 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.18 | 32.3% | 13.7% | 1.9% | .271 | 3.39 | 27.8% | 15.9% | 113 | +0.21 | 2.43 | 420 | 71 |
| Mike Dunn L 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 70 |
| Zach Phillips L 2026 · 3.01 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.01 | 27.4% | 11.9% | 1.3% | .370 | 3.20 | 19.2% | 10.6% | 86 | +0.19 | 2.34 | 202 | 69 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.74 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 176 | 68 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.62 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .318 | 6.63 | 14.2% | 3.4% | 14 | +3.01 | 2.70 | 230 | 68 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.44 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .330 | 4.07 | 26.2% | 17.3% | 23 | -0.37 | 2.50 | 190 | 68 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.63 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.3% | .359 | 3.83 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.20 | 3.62 | 113 | 67 |
| Chasen Shreve L 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.95 | 24.4% | 11.1% | 2.7% | .269 | 4.54 | 23.9% | 13.0% | 108 | +0.59 | 3.79 | 470 | 67 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.72 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .329 | 3.96 | 22.1% | 15.6% | 150 | -0.76 | 1.36 | 350 | 66 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 66 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 66 |
| Kyle Regnault L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.83 | 27.6% | 9.7% | 3.4% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 204 | 66 |
| Jesse Biddle L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.35 | 30.2% | 12.6% | 2.2% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 311 | 65 |
| Adam Loewen L 2028 · 3.84 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.84 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.5% | .287 | 3.62 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.22 | 2.96 | 176 | 65 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 65 |
| Jared Koenig L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.26 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .364 | 2.86 | 24.6% | 17.5% | 128 | -1.40 | 2.72 | 455 | 65 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.