Tim Herrin
P
Cleveland Guardians
Age 29
LHP
6'6" / 230 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 18 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95104vR 113
ERA3.99
FIP4.14
K%23.1%
BB%12.6%
K-BB%10.6%
ROS IP18
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5094.5
Whiff%
p9031.6%
K%
p3119.4%
xwOBA vs
p440.318
SL+0.5 (27%)
FB (44%)
SI (24%)
CU (28%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | AZL Indians 1 | 13 | 0 | 19 | 92 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 16.3% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 1.5% | 6.16 | 3.77 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | AZL Indians 1 | 13 | 0 | 19 | 92 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.9% | 7.6% | 16.3% | 1.1% | 6.16 | 2.57 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Lake County Captains | 12 | 0 | 26 | 109 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 2.2 | 12.9% | 13.0% | -0.1% | 3.7% | 4.85 | 5.66 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Lake County Captains | 12 | 0 | 26 | 109 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 2.2 | 17.4% | 11.0% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 4.85 | 4.52 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 36 | 0 | 74 | 309 | 85 | 32 | 3 | 0% | 2.0 | 21.2% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 0.8% | 2.57 | 3.28 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 36 | 0 | 74 | 309 | 85 | 32 | 3 | 0% | 2.0 | 27.5% | 10.4% | 17.2% | 1.0% | 2.57 | 2.62 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 2 | 69 | 296 | 101 | 23 | 7 | 4% | 1.5 | 29.2% | 8.3% | 20.9% | 2.6% | 4.02 | 3.12 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 2 | 69 | 296 | 101 | 23 | 7 | 4% | 1.5 | 34.1% | 7.8% | 26.4% | 2.4% | 4.02 | 2.49 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 65 | 270 | 75 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.9% | 12.2% | 13.6% | 2.3% | 4.29 | 3.70 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 65 | 270 | 75 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.8% | 11.9% | 15.9% | 2.2% | 4.29 | 3.47 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 75 | 0 | 66 | 257 | 68 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.5% | 9.3% | 17.1% | 0.8% | 1.92 | 2.48 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 75 | 0 | 66 | 257 | 68 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.5% | 9.3% | 17.1% | 0.8% | 1.92 | 2.52 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 62 | 0 | 51 | 227 | 54 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 0.8 | 23.2% | 14.4% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.62 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 62 | 0 | 51 | 227 | 54 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 0.8 | 23.8% | 13.2% | 10.6% | 2.6% | 4.62 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 41 | 0 | 32 | 139 | 27 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 0.8 | 19.4% | 11.5% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 3.06 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | CLE | 17 | 0 | 18 | 77 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 12.6% | 10.6% | 2.6% | 3.99 | 4.14 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | CLE | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 12.6% | 10.6% | 2.6% | 3.99 | 4.14 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 50 | 216 | 45 | 26 | 6 | — | — | 20.7% | 11.9% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 3.40 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 50 | 213 | 45 | 26 | 6 | — | — | 21.0% | 12.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 3.40 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 49 | 0 | 52 | 218 | 50 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 46 | 0 | 48 | 204 | 45 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 13.2% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 42 | 0 | 45 | 188 | 40 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 13.6% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 5.01 | 5.17 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 48 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 43 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 13.2% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 38 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 13.6% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 5.01 | 5.17 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 341 | 0 | 324 | 1367 | 319 | 166 | 33 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.3% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 2.4% | 4.05 | 4.01 | +5.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 211 | 0 | 200 | 845 | 197 | 103 | 20 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.3% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 2.4% | 4.05 | 4.01 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 341 | 2 | 402 | 1699 | 398 | 190 | 34 | 1% | 1.2 | 23.4% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 2.0% | 3.61 | 3.63 | +8.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 170 | 1 | 200 | 846 | 198 | 95 | 17 | 1% | 1.2 | 23.4% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 2.0% | 3.61 | 3.63 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tim Herrin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 25.6% | 13.0% | 2.5% | — | 4.91 | 22.2% | 9.0% | 144 | +0.60 | — | — | — |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.49 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.53 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.04 | 2.29 | 130 | 74 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 73 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .241 | 3.03 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 115 | -0.22 | 2.33 | 455 | 72 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 3.4% | .329 | 3.67 | 22.1% | 15.6% | 150 | -0.64 | 1.52 | 350 | 71 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 70 |
| Mike Dunn L 2027 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 69 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.2% | .359 | 3.67 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.09 | 3.36 | 113 | 69 |
| Dan Runzler L 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.77 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.24 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.47 | 3.77 | 127 | 69 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.73 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.0% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 228 | 69 |
| Adam Loewen L 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.90 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.32 | 2.96 | 176 | 69 |
| Chasen Shreve L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.98 | 24.4% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.53 | 23.9% | 13.0% | 108 | +0.55 | 3.94 | 470 | 69 |
| Jared Koenig L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.15 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 2.9% | .364 | 3.00 | 24.6% | 17.5% | 128 | -1.15 | 2.86 | 455 | 68 |
| Scott Alexander L 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.38 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 1.6% | .290 | 4.81 | 13.3% | 5.0% | 45 | +1.43 | 2.90 | 414 | 68 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.84 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 2.8% | .318 | 6.37 | 14.2% | 3.4% | 14 | +2.53 | 2.66 | 230 | 68 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 176 | 68 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.51 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.71 | 3.59 | 110 | 68 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.60 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 67 |
| Tommy Layne L 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.58 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.4% | .284 | 3.34 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.24 | 1.32 | 182 | 67 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 20.7% | 12.4% | 1.1% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 160 | 67 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .330 | 4.16 | 26.2% | 17.3% | 23 | -0.23 | 2.51 | 190 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 23.1% | 13.1% | 1.10 | 4.60 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |