Austin Warren

P New York Mets

Age 31 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX4 levels	34	1	38	3.82	3.68	24.2%	7.0%	0.4	K 23.7% · BB 5.5% · FIP 4.24
2025	29	MIX2 levels	39	4	60	4.35	4.13	26.0%	8.5%	0.3	K 22.3% · BB 7.2% · FIP 4.22
2026	30	MIX4 levels	56	2	68	3.72	3.71	26.5%	10.2%	0.7	K 25.8% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.85
2027PROJ	31	MLBNYM	45	0	47	4.22	4.35	24.4%	9.0%	0.1
2028PROJ92% MLB	32	MLBNYM	37	0	39	4.45	4.60	23.6%	9.4%	-0.0
2029PROJ93% MLB	33	MLBNYM	28	0	29	4.71	4.88	22.8%	9.8%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%68

FB Velo41

xwOBA vs34

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Chris Hatcher (age 31) · Mike Broadway (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.22

FIP4.35

K%24.4%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%15.4%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p6327.3%

p6825.5%

xwOBA vs

p340.330

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	27	118	38	9	4	0%	1.4	24.1%	7.1%	17.0%	5.2%	3.95	4.81	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	27	118	38	9	4	0%	1.4	32.2%	7.6%	24.6%	3.4%	3.95	3.21	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	58	252	77	30	5	0%	1.6	23.8%	13.5%	10.2%	2.6%	3.12	4.26	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	58	252	77	30	5	0%	1.6	30.6%	11.9%	18.7%	2.0%	3.12	3.12	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	57	250	65	23	5	3%	1.5	23.8%	9.6%	14.3%	2.4%	4.61	3.63	+0.6
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	1	57	250	65	23	5	3%	1.5	26.0%	9.2%	16.8%	2.0%	4.61	3.17	+0.9
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	50	215	39	20	5	0%	1.2	16.5%	9.7%	6.8%	2.4%	3.24	4.26	+0.2
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	50	215	39	20	5	0%	1.2	18.1%	9.3%	8.8%	2.3%	3.24	4.04	+0.3
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	9	35	10	3	1	0%	1.2	28.6%	8.6%	20.0%	2.9%	1.04	3.34	+0.1
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	9	35	10	3	1	0%	1.2	28.6%	8.6%	20.0%	2.9%	1.04	3.33	+0.1
2024	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	34	1	38	157	38	11	5	3%	1.1	23.7%	5.5%	18.2%	4.4%	3.82	4.24	+0.1
2024	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	34	1	38	157	38	11	5	3%	1.1	23.7%	5.5%	18.2%	4.4%	3.82	4.24	+0.1
2024	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	34	1	38	157	38	11	5	3%	1.1	24.2%	7.0%	17.2%	3.2%	3.82	3.68	+0.4
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	4	60	258	67	22	10	10%	1.5	22.3%	7.2%	15.0%	3.8%	4.35	4.22	+0.2
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	4	60	258	67	22	10	10%	1.5	22.3%	7.2%	15.0%	3.8%	4.35	4.22	+0.2
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	4	60	258	67	22	10	10%	1.5	26.0%	8.5%	17.4%	3.9%	4.35	4.13	+0.3
2026	30	MIX MLE	4 levels	56	2	68	283	75	29	8	4%	1.2	25.8%	10.1%	15.7%	3.0%	3.72	3.85	+0.6
2026	30	MIX MLE	4 levels	56	2	68	283	75	29	8	4%	1.2	25.8%	10.1%	15.7%	3.0%	3.72	3.85	+0.6
2026	30	MIX RAW	4 levels	56	2	68	283	75	29	8	4%	1.2	26.5%	10.2%	16.3%	2.8%	3.72	3.71	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			84	2	108	452	102	41	12	2%	1.3	22.6%	9.1%	13.5%	2.7%	3.41	3.79	+1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	NYM	45	0	47	198	48	18	6	0%	1.0	24.4%	9.0%	15.4%	3.3%	4.22	4.35	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	NYM	40	0	42	178	42	17	6	0%	1.1	23.6%	9.4%	14.2%	3.5%	4.45	4.60	-0.0
2029	33	MLB MLE	NYM	29	0	31	130	30	13	5	0%	1.1	22.8%	9.8%	13.0%	3.8%	4.71	4.88	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	NYM	37	0	39	165	39	15	6	0%	1.1	23.6%	9.4%	14.2%	3.5%	4.45	4.60	-0.0
2029	33	MLB CTX	NYM	28	0	29	122	28	12	5	0%	1.0	22.8%	9.8%	13.0%	3.8%	4.71	4.88	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		148	2	176	736	168	68	22	1%	1.2	22.8%	9.3%	13.6%	3.0%	3.85	4.01	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		169	2	200	838	191	77	25	1%	1.2	22.8%	9.3%	13.6%	3.0%	3.85	4.01	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		272	8	366	1568	361	146	50	3%	1.3	23.0%	9.3%	13.7%	3.2%	3.77	4.10	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		149	4	200	858	197	80	28	3%	1.3	23.0%	9.3%	13.7%	3.2%	3.77	4.10	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 14 IPFIP 3.25 → 3.73 (+0.48)K% 31.6% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.58%	—	×0.860	27.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.02%	—	×0.900	6.32%
HR / BF /BF	3.51%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.86%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.25 → 3.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASyracuse Mets · 51 IPFIP 4.14 → 4.22 (+0.08)K% 25.9% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.89%	—	×0.860	22.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.04%	—	×0.900	7.23%
HR / BF /BF	4.02%	÷1.167	×1.100	3.79%

Result: FIP 4.14 → 4.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASacramento River Cats · 23 IPFIP 3.79 → 4.24 (+0.45)K% 27.6% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.55%	—	×0.860	23.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.12%	—	×0.900	5.51%
HR / BF /BF	4.08%	÷1.010	×1.100	4.44%

Result: FIP 3.79 → 4.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASalt Lake Bees · 7 IPFIP 2.08 → 2.28 (+0.20)K% 27.6% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.59%	—	×0.860	23.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.34%	—	×0.900	9.31%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.003	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.08 → 2.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASalt Lake Bees · 34 IPFIP 3.60 → 3.97 (+0.38)K% 20.7% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.69%	—	×0.880	18.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.72%	—	×1.050	12.31%
HR / BF /BF	1.38%	÷0.978	×1.100	1.55%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 3.60 → 3.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASalt Lake Bees · 36 IPFIP 3.84 → 4.53 (+0.70)K% 27.1% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.11%	—	×0.880	23.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.84%	—	×1.050	11.39%
HR / BF /BF	3.01%	÷0.907	×1.100	3.65%

Result: FIP 3.84 → 4.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Inland Empire 66ers · 44 IPFIP 3.15 → 4.50 (+1.35)K% 33.7% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.69%	—	×0.770	25.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.23%	—	×1.150	12.91%
HR / BF /BF	2.67%	÷0.939	×1.250	3.56%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 3.15 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAMobile BayBears · 14 IPFIP 3.04 → 3.56 (+0.52)K% 21.5% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.54%	—	×0.810	17.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.85%	—	×1.100	15.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.050	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 3.04 → 3.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Warren (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	24.4%	9.0%	3.3%	—	4.72	23.3%	13.7%	73	+0.37	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	85
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	84
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	83
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	81
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	335	81
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	79
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	79
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	78
Brian Sanches R 2010 · 4.24 FIP	31	SU	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.217	4.35	19.6%	8.5%	62	+0.11	3.39	229	77
Manny Acosta R 2012 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.3%	11.1%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	350	77
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	77
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	77
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	76
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	76
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	2.60	292	76
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	76
Matt Bush R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	31	SU	3.60	24.2%	7.9%	2.8%	.321	4.72	17.6%	4.6%	23	+1.12	2.87	249	76
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	76
Carlos Torres R 2014 · 3.66 FIP	31	SU	3.66	23.7%	8.4%	2.7%	.295	3.72	20.2%	12.4%	213	+0.06	2.89	604	74
Chad Fox R 2001 · 3.17 FIP	30	SU	3.17	27.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.221	3.70	23.2%	9.6%	43	+0.53	2.82	194	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	47	23.2%	9.4%	1.20	3.95
Ryan Tepera ('23)	1.8	52	24.3%	8.8%	1.13	3.62
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
John Johnstone ('00)	1.4	56	19.4%	9.5%	1.23	4.01
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Carlos Diaz ('82-'86, 2 WAR*)	1.3	52	25.1%*	8.7%*	0.91*	3.84*