Austin Warren
P
New York Mets
Age 30
RHP
6'0" / 170 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION43 act + 27 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.01
FIP4.01
K%23.1%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%14.4%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p5626.3%
K%
p5823.6%
xwOBA vs
p180.350
SI (25%)
CT (1%)
CU (10%)
SL (47%)
FB-0.9 (40%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 0 | 27 | 118 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.1% | 7.1% | 17.0% | 5.8% | 3.95 | 5.13 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 0 | 27 | 118 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 32.2% | 7.6% | 24.6% | 3.4% | 3.95 | 3.21 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 58 | 252 | 77 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 23.8% | 13.5% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 3.12 | 4.36 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 58 | 252 | 77 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 30.6% | 11.9% | 18.7% | 2.0% | 3.12 | 3.12 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 1 | 57 | 250 | 65 | 23 | 5 | 3% | 1.5 | 23.8% | 9.6% | 14.3% | 2.7% | 4.61 | 3.78 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 1 | 57 | 250 | 65 | 23 | 5 | 3% | 1.5 | 26.0% | 9.2% | 16.8% | 2.0% | 4.61 | 3.17 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 50 | 215 | 39 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 3.24 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 50 | 215 | 39 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 2.3% | 3.24 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 0 | 9 | 35 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.6% | 8.6% | 20.0% | 2.9% | 1.04 | 3.34 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 0 | 9 | 35 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.6% | 8.6% | 20.0% | 2.9% | 1.04 | 3.33 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 34 | 1 | 38 | 157 | 38 | 11 | 5 | 3% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 6.4% | 17.8% | 4.4% | 3.82 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 34 | 1 | 38 | 157 | 38 | 11 | 5 | 3% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 7.0% | 17.2% | 3.2% | 3.82 | 3.68 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 4 | 60 | 258 | 67 | 22 | 10 | 10% | 1.5 | 22.8% | 8.4% | 14.3% | 3.3% | 4.35 | 4.06 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 4 | 60 | 258 | 67 | 22 | 10 | 10% | 1.5 | 26.0% | 8.5% | 17.4% | 3.9% | 4.35 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 33 | 2 | 43 | 189 | 45 | 20 | 6 | 6% | 1.3 | 23.6% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 3.98 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | NYM | 26 | 0 | 27 | 115 | 27 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 8.8% | 14.4% | 3.2% | 4.01 | 4.01 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | NYM | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 26 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 8.8% | 14.4% | 3.2% | 4.01 | 4.01 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 70 | 304 | 72 | 30 | 10 | — | — | 23.6% | 9.9% | 13.7% | 3.2% | 3.99 | 4.19 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 62 | 263 | 72 | 30 | 10 | — | — | 27.3% | 11.5% | 15.8% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 60 | 0 | 63 | 267 | 60 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 3.4% | 4.53 | 4.62 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 54 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 3.6% | 4.71 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 57 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 3.4% | 4.53 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 51 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 3.6% | 4.71 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 205 | 2 | 236 | 997 | 218 | 91 | 32 | 1% | 1.2 | 21.9% | 9.1% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.10 | 4.16 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 174 | 2 | 200 | 845 | 185 | 77 | 27 | 1% | 1.2 | 21.9% | 9.1% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.10 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 249 | 8 | 341 | 1474 | 335 | 144 | 49 | 3% | 1.4 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 3.3% | 3.80 | 4.23 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 146 | 5 | 200 | 865 | 196 | 84 | 28 | 3% | 1.4 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 3.3% | 3.80 | 4.23 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Warren (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.27 | 22.8% | 7.7% | 3.2% | — | 4.73 | 22.0% | 12.6% | 122 | +0.46 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 87 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 86 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 81 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 79 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 79 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .288 | 4.75 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 392 | 79 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.81 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.2% | .373 | 3.58 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.23 | 3.37 | 170 | 78 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 137 | 77 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 77 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 160 | 76 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.49 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.63 | 2.36 | 172 | 76 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 76 |
| Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 75 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.15 | 22.8% | 6.1% | 2.2% | .279 | 3.69 | 21.2% | 11.5% | 181 | +0.54 | 3.15 | 272 | 75 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2027 · 3.09 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.09 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.84 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.75 | 3.09 | 148 | 75 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 75 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.04 | 27.7% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 281 | 75 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 75 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 75 |
| Matt Albers R 2028 · 3.18 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.18 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.51 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 147 | +1.33 | 3.15 | 244 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 61 | 22.3% | 8.8% | 1.31 | 4.50 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |