Austin Warren — OGILVIE

Austin Warren P New York Mets

Age 30 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION61 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA3.90

FIP3.90

K%23.7%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%16.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p5526.0%

p7025.9%

xwOBA vs

p340.331

SI (27%)

CT (1%)

CU (8%)

CH (2%)

SL (46%)

FB-0.9 (43%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	27	118	38	9	4	0%	1.4	24.1%	7.1%	17.0%	5.2%	3.95	4.81	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	27	118	38	9	4	0%	1.4	32.2%	7.6%	24.6%	3.4%	3.95	3.21	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	58	252	77	30	5	0%	1.6	23.8%	13.5%	10.2%	2.6%	3.12	4.26	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	58	252	77	30	5	0%	1.6	30.6%	11.9%	18.7%	2.0%	3.12	3.12	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	57	250	65	23	5	3%	1.5	23.8%	9.6%	14.3%	2.4%	4.61	3.63	+0.6
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	1	57	250	65	23	5	3%	1.5	26.0%	9.2%	16.8%	2.0%	4.61	3.17	+0.9
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	50	215	39	20	5	0%	1.2	16.5%	9.7%	6.8%	2.4%	3.24	4.26	+0.2
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	50	215	39	20	5	0%	1.2	18.1%	9.3%	8.8%	2.3%	3.24	4.04	+0.3
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	9	35	10	3	1	0%	1.2	28.6%	8.6%	20.0%	2.9%	1.04	3.34	+0.1
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	9	35	10	3	1	0%	1.2	28.6%	8.6%	20.0%	2.9%	1.04	3.34	+0.1
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	9	35	10	3	1	0%	1.2	28.6%	8.6%	20.0%	2.9%	1.04	3.33	+0.1
2024	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	34	1	38	157	38	11	5	3%	1.1	22.9%	5.5%	17.4%	4.4%	3.82	4.31	+0.1
2024	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	34	1	38	157	38	11	5	3%	1.1	22.9%	5.5%	17.4%	4.4%	3.82	4.31	+0.1
2024	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	34	1	38	157	38	11	5	3%	1.1	24.2%	7.0%	17.2%	3.2%	3.82	3.68	+0.4
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	4	60	258	67	22	10	10%	1.5	21.5%	7.2%	14.3%	3.8%	4.35	4.28	+0.2
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	4	60	258	67	22	10	10%	1.5	21.5%	7.2%	14.3%	3.8%	4.35	4.28	+0.2
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	4	60	258	67	22	10	10%	1.5	26.0%	8.5%	17.4%	3.9%	4.35	4.13	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			78	2	101	429	97	38	12	3%	1.3	22.6%	8.9%	13.8%	2.8%	3.55	3.85	+0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	50	2	61	260	70	26	8	4%	1.2	26.0%	9.8%	16.1%	3.3%	4.01	3.96	+0.4
YTD	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	50	2	61	260	70	26	8	4%	1.2	26.0%	9.8%	16.1%	3.3%	4.01	3.96	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	A RAW	NYM	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	33.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.51	—
2026	30	A+ RAW	NYM	2	0	2	7	1	0	0	0%	1.0	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.89	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	NYM	12	0	14	57	18	4	2	0%	1.2	31.6%	7.0%	24.6%	3.5%	3.14	3.25	—
2026	30	MLB RAW	NYM	35	2	43	193	50	21	6	6%	1.2	25.9%	10.9%	15.0%	3.1%	4.57	4.00	+0.3
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	NYM	35	2	43	193	50	21	6	6%	1.2	25.9%	10.9%	15.0%	3.1%	4.57	4.00	+0.3
ROS	30	MLB MLE	NYM	6	0	6	26	6	2	1	0%	1.0	23.7%	7.8%	16.0%	3.3%	3.90	3.90	+0.0
ROS	30	MLB CTX	NYM	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	23.7%	7.8%	16.0%	3.3%	3.90	3.90	+0.0
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	67	286	76	28	9	—	—	26.6%	9.8%	16.8%	3.1%	4.00	3.95	+0.5
FULL	30	MLB A+C	NYM	—	—	49	209	76	28	9	—	—	36.4%	13.4%	23.0%	4.2%	5.40	4.05	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	NYM	60	0	63	267	60	23	9	0%	1.1	22.6%	8.5%	14.1%	3.5%	4.47	4.57	-0.0
2028	32	MLB MLE	NYM	56	0	59	247	54	22	9	0%	1.0	21.8%	8.9%	12.8%	3.7%	4.68	4.82	-0.2
2027	31	MLB CTX	NYM	57	0	60	253	57	22	9	0%	1.1	22.6%	8.5%	14.1%	3.5%	4.47	4.57	-0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	NYM	53	0	56	236	51	21	9	0%	1.1	21.8%	8.9%	12.8%	3.7%	4.68	4.82	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		194	2	223	944	212	83	30	1%	1.2	22.4%	8.8%	13.7%	3.2%	4.09	4.09	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		174	2	200	845	190	74	27	1%	1.2	22.4%	8.8%	13.7%	3.2%	4.09	4.09	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		266	8	359	1545	352	143	50	3%	1.3	22.8%	9.3%	13.5%	3.3%	3.81	4.14	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		148	4	200	862	196	80	28	3%	1.3	22.8%	9.3%	13.5%	3.3%	3.81	4.14	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Warren (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.32	21.7%	6.7%	3.3%	—	4.69	22.2%	13.5%	122	+0.37	—	—	—
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	87
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	85
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	81
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	80
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	80
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	78
Joakim Soria R 2015 · 3.70 FIP	31	SU	3.70	23.5%	6.6%	3.2%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.79	2.01	380	77
Cory Gearrin R 2016 · 3.15 FIP	30	SU	3.15	22.8%	6.1%	2.2%	.279	3.72	21.2%	11.5%	181	+0.57	3.15	272	77
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	76
Rubby De La Rosa R 2019 · 4.21 FIP	30	SU	4.21	27.7%	8.0%	4.4%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	281	76
Rob Wooten R 2015 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	19.3%	5.5%	4.9%	.299	3.87	17.7%	14.4%	111	-0.99	3.19	191	76
Junichi Tazawa R 2016 · 4.14 FIP	30	SU	4.14	26.0%	6.2%	4.4%	.288	4.74	17.7%	9.1%	118	+0.60	2.94	227	76
Matt Albers R 2015 · 3.19 FIP	32	SU	3.19	18.8%	4.7%	2.0%	.252	4.45	20.4%	13.3%	147	+1.26	3.15	244	75
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	75
Logan Ondrusek R 2018 · 5.51 FIP	33	SU	5.51	23.8%	7.4%	6.3%	.353	5.51	17.5%	9.2%	120	+0.00	4.34	138	75
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2015 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	18.6%	7.6%	4.9%	.373	3.56	18.5%	9.3%	93	-1.65	3.50	170	74
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	74
Carlos Torres R 2015 · 3.19 FIP	32	SU	3.19	19.8%	4.9%	2.1%	.315	3.67	20.8%	12.4%	206	+0.48	2.89	326	74
Drew Storen R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SU	3.83	19.5%	7.3%	2.6%	.289	4.31	19.4%	8.4%	10	+0.48	2.36	172	74
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	63	22.0%	8.0%	1.36	4.48
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63