Austin Warren
P
Syracuse Mets
+0.2
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'0" / 170 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP-0.00
SIERA0.15
K%23.2%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%14.7%
IP40
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL5555
CMD5555
K†5555
SI (21%)
CT (2%)
CU (11%)
SL (51%)
FB-0.9 (35%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | A | Burlington Bees | 19 | 0 | 27 | 118 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 24.1% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.95 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Mobile BayBears | 36 | 0 | 58 | 252 | 77 | 30 | 5 | 23.8% | 13.5% | 2.6% | 3.12 | 4.25 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 38 | 1 | 57 | 250 | 65 | 23 | 5 | 23.8% | 9.6% | 2.4% | 4.61 | 3.59 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 43 | 0 | 50 | 215 | 39 | 20 | 5 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 2.3% | 3.24 | 4.20 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 7 | 0 | 9 | 35 | 10 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.04 | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 34 | 1 | 38 | 157 | 38 | 11 | 5 | 24.2% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.82 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 39 | 4 | 60 | 258 | 67 | 22 | 10 | 22.8% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 4.35 | 4.36 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 7 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 9 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 2.25 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | NYM | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 38 | 13 | 6 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.40 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 48 | 201 | 47 | 15 | 8 | 23.2% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 4.04 | 3.72 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 36 | 14 | 6 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 4.49 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 34 | 13 | 5 | 21.5% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 4.58 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 31 | 13 | 5 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 4.68 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 29 | 13 | 5 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 4.80 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 26 | 12 | 5 | 19.5% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 4.95 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 24 | 12 | 5 | 18.8% | 9.4% | 3.9% | 5.11 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 223 | 6 | 306 | 1319 | 299 | 124 | 44 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 3.74 | 4.19 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 146 | 4 | 200 | 862 | 195 | 81 | 29 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 3.74 | 4.19 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Warren (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 3.4% | — | 4.66 | 21.5% | 13.0% | 112 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 88 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 86 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 79 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.16 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .373 | 3.54 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.62 | 3.45 | 170 | 79 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 78 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 77 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 77 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 77 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 76 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.05 | 26.0% | 6.2% | 4.3% | .288 | 4.70 | 17.7% | 9.1% | 118 | +0.65 | 2.99 | 227 | 76 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 76 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2029 · 5.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.50 | 23.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | .353 | 5.51 | 17.5% | 9.2% | 120 | +0.01 | 4.34 | 138 | 76 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 76 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.56 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.73 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +1.17 | 2.72 | 392 | 75 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2024 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 75 |
| Rob Wooten R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.91 | 19.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | .299 | 3.86 | 17.7% | 14.4% | 111 | -1.05 | 3.19 | 191 | 75 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 75 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 75 |
| Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 75 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 27.7% | 8.0% | 4.5% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 281 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.