Ethan Roberts — OGILVIE

Ethan Roberts P Chicago Cubs

Age 29 RHP 5'10" / 180 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA3.86

FIP3.87

K%21.3%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%12.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p3122.6%

p1015.5%

xwOBA vs

p240.342

SL+1.8 (39%)

CT (44%)

SI (16%)

FB-0.8 (17%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	59	244	54	8	1	0%	1.4	16.7%	3.9%	12.8%	0.6%	2.59	2.50	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	59	244	54	8	1	0%	1.4	22.1%	3.3%	18.9%	0.4%	2.59	1.90	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	54	221	72	14	2	0%	1.4	27.2%	6.8%	20.4%	1.0%	3.00	2.23	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	54	221	72	14	2	0%	1.4	32.6%	6.3%	26.2%	0.9%	3.00	1.69	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	8	39	9	6	3	0%	0.8	23.1%	15.4%	7.7%	7.7%	7.88	7.32	-0.3
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	8	39	9	6	3	0%	0.8	23.1%	15.4%	7.7%	7.7%	7.88	7.97	-0.3
2024	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	37	0	45	192	47	18	4	0%	1.2	23.5%	8.3%	15.2%	2.2%	2.82	3.40	+0.6
2024	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	37	0	45	192	47	18	4	0%	1.2	23.5%	8.3%	15.2%	2.2%	2.82	3.40	+0.6
2024	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	37	0	45	192	47	18	4	0%	1.2	24.5%	9.4%	15.1%	2.1%	2.82	3.37	+0.6
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	51	220	60	21	5	2%	1.1	24.8%	9.4%	15.3%	1.1%	2.84	2.80	+1.1
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	51	220	60	21	5	2%	1.1	24.8%	9.4%	15.3%	1.1%	2.84	2.80	+1.1
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	51	220	60	21	5	2%	1.1	27.3%	9.5%	17.7%	2.3%	2.84	3.26	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			63	0	69	305	58	32	12	0%	1.1	19.0%	10.5%	8.5%	3.9%	4.70	5.07	-0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	48	0	52	219	42	23	7	0%	1.1	17.2%	10.1%	7.1%	3.4%	4.01	4.81	-0.2
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	48	0	52	219	42	23	7	0%	1.1	17.2%	10.1%	7.1%	3.4%	4.01	4.81	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	CHC	25	0	26	109	25	9	4	0%	1.0	22.9%	8.3%	14.7%	3.7%	3.81	4.22	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	CHC	23	0	26	110	17	14	3	0%	1.1	15.5%	12.7%	2.7%	2.7%	4.21	4.90	-0.1
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	CHC	23	0	26	110	17	14	3	0%	1.1	15.5%	12.7%	2.7%	2.7%	4.21	4.90	-0.1
ROS	29	MLB MLE	CHC	4	0	5	19	4	2	0	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.2%	12.2%	2.6%	3.86	3.87	+0.0
ROS	29	MLB CTX	CHC	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	9.2%	12.2%	2.6%	3.86	3.87	+0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	56	238	46	25	7	—	—	19.4%	10.4%	9.0%	3.1%	3.99	4.73	-0.1
FULL	29	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	30	128	46	25	7	—	—	36.1%	19.4%	16.7%	5.9%	7.43	5.73	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	CHC	49	0	51	216	45	22	6	0%	1.0	20.9%	10.0%	10.9%	2.8%	4.44	4.53	+0.0
2028	31	MLB MLE	CHC	45	0	48	201	41	21	6	0%	1.1	20.3%	10.3%	10.0%	3.0%	4.62	4.74	-0.1
2029	32	MLB MLE	CHC	42	0	44	186	37	20	6	0%	1.1	19.7%	10.7%	9.0%	3.3%	4.83	4.98	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	CHC	47	0	49	207	43	21	6	0%	1.0	20.9%	10.0%	10.9%	2.8%	4.44	4.53	+0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	CHC	43	0	45	190	39	20	6	0%	1.0	20.3%	10.3%	10.0%	3.0%	4.62	4.74	-0.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	CHC	40	0	42	177	35	19	6	0%	1.1	19.7%	10.7%	9.0%	3.3%	4.83	4.98	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		197	0	209	898	179	93	30	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.4%	9.6%	3.3%	4.63	4.56	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	858	171	89	29	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.4%	9.6%	3.3%	4.63	4.56	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		221	1	268	1135	247	89	21	0%	1.2	21.8%	7.9%	13.9%	1.8%	3.19	3.27	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		165	1	200	847	184	67	16	0%	1.2	21.8%	7.9%	13.9%	1.8%	3.19	3.27	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Roberts (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.00	23.6%	8.9%	2.5%	—	4.74	20.3%	10.0%	143	+0.74	—	—	—
Cory Gearrin R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	29	SU	3.52	22.1%	7.5%	2.5%	.283	3.54	22.2%	13.6%	174	+0.02	3.15	272	83
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	79
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	77
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	76
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	75
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	74
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	74
Drew Storen R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SU	3.83	19.5%	7.3%	2.6%	.289	4.31	19.4%	8.4%	10	+0.48	2.36	172	74
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	74
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	21.9%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.09	24.6%	16.4%	87	-0.42	2.32	186	74
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	74
Steve Cishek R 2015 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	19.8%	9.9%	1.8%	.305	3.06	27.1%	19.3%	179	-0.59	2.86	453	74
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	74
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	74
Erik Davis R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	29	SU	3.05	24.4%	9.5%	1.5%	.329	3.88	19.8%	9.8%	129	+0.83	3.05	227	73
Pedro Beato R 2016 · 4.20 FIP	29	SU	4.20	19.2%	8.5%	3.0%	.275	3.72	18.5%	11.1%	152	-0.48	3.47	295	73
Carlos Fisher R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.17	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.28	2.48	147	73
Hunter Strickland R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	29	SU	4.22	18.4%	9.5%	2.7%	.271	4.48	22.0%	13.3%	83	+0.26	2.30	523	72
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	72
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	48	21.2%	9.9%	1.13	4.46
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47