Ethan Roberts
P
Chicago Cubs
Age 29
RHP
5'10" / 180 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 24 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 93
ERA3.99
FIP4.02
K%21.3%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%10.8%
ROS IP24
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3793.6
Whiff%
p3122.6%
K%
p1015.5%
xwOBA vs
p240.342
SL+1.8 (39%)
CT (44%)
SI (16%)
FB-0.8 (17%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 59 | 244 | 54 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 16.7% | 3.9% | 12.8% | 0.6% | 2.59 | 2.53 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 59 | 244 | 54 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.1% | 3.3% | 18.9% | 0.4% | 2.59 | 1.90 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 54 | 221 | 72 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.2% | 6.8% | 20.4% | 1.0% | 3.00 | 2.21 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 54 | 221 | 72 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 32.6% | 6.3% | 26.2% | 0.9% | 3.00 | 1.69 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 8 | 39 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 23.1% | 15.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.88 | 7.32 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 8 | 39 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 23.1% | 15.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.88 | 7.97 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 37 | 0 | 45 | 192 | 47 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.0% | 8.8% | 15.2% | 2.1% | 2.82 | 3.34 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 37 | 0 | 45 | 192 | 47 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.5% | 9.4% | 15.1% | 2.1% | 2.82 | 3.37 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 1 | 51 | 220 | 60 | 21 | 5 | 2% | 1.1 | 26.3% | 11.0% | 15.2% | 1.0% | 2.84 | 2.81 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 1 | 51 | 220 | 60 | 21 | 5 | 2% | 1.1 | 27.3% | 9.5% | 17.7% | 2.3% | 2.84 | 3.26 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 31 | 0 | 35 | 151 | 28 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.5% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.60 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | CHC | 23 | 0 | 24 | 102 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 2.5% | 3.99 | 4.02 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | CHC | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 2.5% | 3.99 | 4.02 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 59 | 253 | 50 | 30 | 7 | — | — | 19.7% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 3.76 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 50 | 211 | 50 | 30 | 7 | — | — | 23.6% | 14.1% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 49 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 46 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 45 | 0 | 48 | 201 | 42 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 38 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 4.84 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 44 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 40 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 36 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 4.84 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 215 | 0 | 229 | 981 | 199 | 106 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.53 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 188 | 0 | 200 | 856 | 174 | 93 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 204 | 1 | 251 | 1067 | 237 | 91 | 17 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 13.7% | 1.6% | 3.08 | 3.18 | +6.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 162 | 1 | 200 | 849 | 189 | 72 | 14 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 13.7% | 1.6% | 3.08 | 3.18 | +5.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ethan Roberts (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.03 | 24.4% | 9.8% | 2.5% | — | 4.76 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 143 | +0.73 | — | — | — |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 82 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 79 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 77 |
| Hunter Strickland R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.23 | 18.4% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.60 | 22.0% | 13.3% | 83 | +0.37 | 2.30 | 523 | 76 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 75 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 75 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 74 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.49 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.63 | 2.36 | 172 | 74 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 74 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 73 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2028 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 73 |
| Steve Cishek R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.59 | 19.8% | 9.9% | 1.7% | .305 | 3.06 | 27.1% | 19.3% | 179 | -0.53 | 2.80 | 453 | 73 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2029 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 73 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.07 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .329 | 3.81 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 129 | +0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 73 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 22.7% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.87 | 232 | 73 |
| Michael Dimock R 2025 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.34 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 166 | 72 |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .261 | 3.30 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 143 | -0.96 | 2.39 | 332 | 72 |
| Mark Serrano R 2027 · 3.03 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.03 | 17.7% | 6.5% | 1.1% | .290 | 4.44 | 21.1% | 14.0% | 88 | +1.41 | 3.03 | 120 | 72 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 72 |
| Joe Colón J R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 48 | 21.8% | 10.7% | 1.11 | 4.47 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |