Ethan Roberts
P
Iowa Cubs
+0.3
WAR
Age 29
RHP
5'10" / 180 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA3.88
FIP3.99
xFIP4.93
SIERA2.90
K%24.5%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%14.7%
IP35
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF6060
CTRL4545
CMD5555
K†5555
FB Velo
p1091.3
Whiff%
p6227.2%
K%
p4922.0%
xwOBA vs
p440.319
SL+1.8 (39%)
CT (52%)
SI (7%)
FB-0.8 (9%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 41 | 0 | 59 | 244 | 54 | 8 | 1 | 16.7% | 3.9% | 0.6% | 2.59 | 2.50 | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 39 | 0 | 54 | 221 | 72 | 14 | 2 | 27.2% | 6.8% | 1.0% | 3.00 | 2.21 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 10 | 0 | 8 | 39 | 9 | 6 | 3 | — | — | — | 7.88 | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 37 | 0 | 45 | 192 | 47 | 18 | 4 | 24.0% | 8.8% | 2.2% | 2.82 | 3.39 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 46 | 1 | 51 | 220 | 60 | 21 | 5 | 26.3% | 11.0% | 1.1% | 2.84 | 2.87 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 6 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.29 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | CHC | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 31 | 13 | 3 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 3.84 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 39 | 167 | 39 | 14 | 3 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 2.1% | 3.39 | 3.43 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.11 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.38 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 26 | 13 | 4 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 29 | — | 29 | 121 | 24 | 12 | 4 | 20.0% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 179 | 1 | 223 | 946 | 222 | 73 | 13 | 23.4% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 2.94 | 2.86 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 160 | 1 | 200 | 847 | 199 | 65 | 12 | 23.4% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 2.94 | 2.86 | +5.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ethan Roberts (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.17 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 2.6% | — | 4.38 | 21.9% | 12.1% | 98 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 85 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 79 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.83 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 3.54 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.29 | 3.54 | 348 | 76 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 75 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2029 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.32 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.11 | 3.21 | 425 | 74 |
| Stephen Fife R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.10 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 1.0% | .329 | 3.65 | 14.1% | 8.3% | 152 | +0.55 | 3.10 | 179 | 74 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.95 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.92 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.03 | 3.51 | 134 | 74 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 73 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 72 |
| Steve Cishek R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.69 | 19.8% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .305 | 3.09 | 27.1% | 19.3% | 179 | -0.60 | 2.89 | 453 | 72 |
| Hunter Strickland R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.23 | 18.4% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.41 | 22.0% | 13.3% | 83 | +0.18 | 2.30 | 511 | 72 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 72 |
| Michael Dimock R 2025 · 3.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.39 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.7% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 166 | 71 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 71 |
| Mark Serrano R 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.10 | 17.7% | 6.5% | 1.2% | .290 | 4.39 | 21.1% | 14.0% | 88 | +1.29 | 3.10 | 120 | 71 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.05 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .329 | 3.89 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 129 | +0.84 | 3.05 | 227 | 71 |
| Louis Coleman R 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.12 | 21.7% | 8.2% | 1.5% | .260 | 3.67 | 22.2% | 11.5% | 178 | +0.55 | 3.10 | 256 | 71 |
| Grant Sides R 2027 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 1.5% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 159 | 71 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 71 |
| Carlos Villanueva R 2028 · 3.67 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.67 | 22.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .259 | 4.50 | 19.0% | 15.9% | 74 | +0.83 | 3.67 | 135 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.