Randy Vásquez — OGILVIE

Randy Vásquez P San Diego Padres

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 165 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 0.8 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION132 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.16

FIP4.36

K%15.0%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%7.9%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p1019.3%

p1015.0%

xwOBA vs

p120.357

FB+2.6 (48%)

CT+1.8 (24%)

SI (16%)

CU (8%)

SL (12%)

CH-0.6 (8%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.3M
2027	Arb-2	$3M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.1M		$0.4M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees West	9	7	30	119	28	12	1	78%	3.4	16.0%	12.6%	3.4%	1.2%	1.78	3.99	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees West	9	7	30	119	28	12	1	78%	3.4	23.5%	10.1%	13.4%	0.8%	1.78	2.87	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	21	107	454	130	38	4	91%	4.7	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	1.1%	2.52	3.07	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	21	107	454	130	38	4	91%	4.7	28.6%	8.4%	20.3%	0.9%	2.52	2.22	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	25	25	115	496	120	41	11	100%	4.6	19.6%	9.1%	10.5%	2.6%	3.90	4.01	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	25	25	115	496	120	41	11	100%	4.6	24.2%	8.3%	15.9%	2.2%	3.90	3.33	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	22	118	523	129	58	15	79%	4.2	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	3.0%	4.04	4.22	+1.0
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	22	118	523	129	58	15	79%	4.2	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	3.0%	4.04	4.22	+1.0
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	22	118	523	129	58	15	79%	4.2	24.7%	11.1%	13.6%	2.9%	4.04	4.04	+1.2
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	140	631	106	41	23	100%	4.7	15.6%	6.3%	9.3%	3.6%	5.86	4.57	+0.5
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	140	631	106	41	23	100%	4.7	15.6%	6.3%	9.3%	3.6%	5.86	4.57	+0.5
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	140	631	106	41	23	100%	4.7	16.8%	6.5%	10.3%	3.6%	5.86	4.60	+0.5
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	28	142	607	84	56	17	93%	4.7	13.7%	8.9%	4.7%	2.7%	3.94	4.58	+0.5
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	28	142	607	84	56	17	93%	4.7	13.7%	8.9%	4.7%	2.7%	3.94	4.58	+0.5
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	28	142	607	84	56	17	93%	4.7	13.8%	9.2%	4.6%	2.8%	3.94	4.66	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			87	73	398	1707	254	131	49	84%	4.6	14.9%	7.7%	7.2%	2.9%	4.04	4.41	+2.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	29	23	132	549	84	34	15	79%	4.5	15.0%	6.3%	8.7%	2.7%	3.90	4.12	+1.2
YTD	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	29	23	132	549	84	34	15	79%	4.5	15.0%	6.3%	8.7%	2.7%	3.90	4.12	+1.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	ROK RAW	SD	1	1	3	9	3	0	0	100%	2.7	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	SD	28	22	129	540	81	34	15	79%	4.6	15.0%	6.3%	8.7%	2.8%	3.98	4.16	+1.1
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	SD	28	22	129	540	81	34	15	79%	4.6	15.0%	6.3%	8.7%	2.8%	3.98	4.16	+1.1
ROS	27	MLB MLE	SD	2	2	13	54	8	4	2	100%	6.4	15.0%	7.1%	7.9%	3.0%	4.16	4.36	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	SD	2	2	13	55	8	4	2	100%	6.5	15.0%	7.1%	7.9%	3.1%	4.21	4.41	+0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	144	603	92	38	17	—	—	15.3%	6.3%	9.0%	2.8%	3.92	4.14	+1.3
FULL	27	MLB A+C	SD	—	—	142	598	92	38	17	—	—	15.4%	6.3%	9.1%	2.8%	4.00	4.13	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SD	20	20	118	497	74	36	15	100%	5.9	14.9%	7.2%	7.6%	3.0%	4.68	4.79	+0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	112	474	68	35	15	100%	5.9	14.3%	7.5%	6.8%	3.2%	4.84	4.95	-0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	106	446	61	35	15	100%	5.9	13.6%	7.8%	5.8%	3.4%	5.03	5.16	-0.3
2027	28	MLB CTX	SD	20	20	118	498	74	36	15	100%	5.9	14.9%	7.2%	7.6%	3.1%	4.72	4.83	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	SD	19	19	112	473	68	35	15	100%	5.9	14.3%	7.5%	6.8%	3.2%	4.88	4.99	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	SD	18	18	106	448	61	35	15	100%	5.9	13.6%	7.8%	5.8%	3.4%	5.08	5.21	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		145	131	747	3177	464	241	97	90%	5.1	14.6%	7.6%	7.0%	3.0%	4.43	4.50	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	35	200	851	124	65	26	90%	5.1	14.6%	7.6%	7.0%	3.0%	4.43	4.50	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		174	156	784	3379	592	287	89	90%	4.5	17.5%	8.5%	9.0%	2.6%	4.01	4.14	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	40	200	862	151	73	23	90%	4.5	17.5%	8.5%	9.0%	2.6%	4.01	4.14	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Randy Vásquez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	15.0%	8.3%	3.1%	—	4.96	14.3%	6.8%	336	+0.02	—	—	—
Tyler Chatwood R 2017 · 4.54 FIP	27	SP-	4.54	19.0%	11.9%	2.8%	.279	4.53	20.6%	5.2%	199	-0.01	3.30	537	73
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	72
Nick Martinez R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	26	SP-	5.09	13.9%	5.6%	4.5%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	1,134	72
Tyler Wilson R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	27	SP-	4.45	12.1%	7.0%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	377	71
Zach Plesac R 2022 · 4.30 FIP	27	SP	4.30	17.6%	6.7%	3.4%	.285	6.44	13.5%	5.0%	286	+2.14	3.27	965	71
Jesse Hahn R 2016 · 4.90 FIP	27	SP	4.90	12.6%	10.7%	2.8%	.315	3.66	16.6%	6.9%	95	-1.24	2.19	426	70
David Hale R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	16.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.343	4.11	13.8%	8.1%	251	-0.04	3.30	493	70
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	69
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	69
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	69
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	68
Jimmy Nelson R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP	4.57	17.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.289	3.16	27.2%	18.6%	238	-1.41	1.32	650	68
Nathan Eovaldi R 2016 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP	4.71	18.5%	7.2%	4.1%	.272	4.29	22.6%	15.6%	179	-0.42	2.44	1,378	67
Gabriel Arias R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP	4.42	13.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	67
Caleb Kilian R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP	4.66	15.4%	6.2%	3.8%	.290	3.57	21.4%	13.2%	105	-1.09	2.42	444	67
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.73	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.66	4.07	203	67
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	66
Brannon Easterling R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	26	SP-	4.40	12.7%	8.2%	2.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	334	66
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	66
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	113	14.5%	7.7%	1.22	4.82
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Matt Manning ('24)	1.3	64	16.4%	7.8%	1.06	4.43
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37