Randy Vásquez
P
San Diego Padres
Age 27
RHP
6'0" / 165 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION84 act + 56 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141132vR 122
ERA4.43
FIP4.66
K%15.8%
BB%7.8%
K-BB%7.9%
ROS IP56
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 140 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5594.9
Whiff%
p1520.4%
K%
p1016.3%
xwOBA vs
p100.397
FB+2.6 (45%)
CT+1.8 (24%)
SI (12%)
CU (11%)
SL (13%)
CH-0.6 (8%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Yankees West | 9 | 7 | 30 | 119 | 28 | 12 | 1 | 78% | 3.4 | 16.0% | 12.6% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 1.78 | 3.99 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Yankees West | 9 | 7 | 30 | 119 | 28 | 12 | 1 | 78% | 3.4 | 23.5% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 0.8% | 1.78 | 2.87 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 21 | 107 | 454 | 130 | 38 | 4 | 91% | 4.7 | 21.8% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 1.1% | 2.52 | 3.06 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 21 | 107 | 454 | 130 | 38 | 4 | 91% | 4.7 | 28.6% | 8.4% | 20.3% | 0.9% | 2.52 | 2.22 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 25 | 25 | 115 | 496 | 120 | 41 | 11 | 100% | 4.6 | 19.6% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 3.90 | 3.97 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 25 | 25 | 115 | 496 | 120 | 41 | 11 | 100% | 4.6 | 24.2% | 8.3% | 15.9% | 2.2% | 3.90 | 3.33 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 22 | 118 | 523 | 129 | 58 | 15 | 79% | 4.2 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 4.04 | 4.26 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 22 | 118 | 523 | 129 | 58 | 15 | 79% | 4.2 | 24.7% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 4.04 | 4.04 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 140 | 631 | 106 | 41 | 23 | 100% | 4.7 | 16.0% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 5.86 | 4.63 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 140 | 631 | 106 | 41 | 23 | 100% | 4.7 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 5.86 | 4.60 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 28 | 142 | 607 | 84 | 56 | 17 | 93% | 4.7 | 13.7% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 3.94 | 4.73 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 28 | 142 | 607 | 84 | 56 | 17 | 93% | 4.7 | 13.8% | 9.2% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 3.94 | 4.66 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 17 | 16 | 84 | 369 | 60 | 26 | 14 | 94% | 4.9 | 16.3% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 4.71 | 4.70 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 37 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 4.43 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 37 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 4.43 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | SD | — | — | 140 | 605 | 97 | 45 | 22 | — | — | 16.1% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 3.7% | 4.60 | 4.68 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | SD | — | — | 140 | 591 | 97 | 45 | 22 | — | — | 16.5% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 3.8% | 4.60 | 4.72 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SD | 20 | 20 | 118 | 497 | 77 | 40 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 5.01 | 5.13 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SD | 19 | 19 | 112 | 474 | 71 | 39 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 5.18 | 5.29 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SD | 18 | 18 | 106 | 446 | 63 | 38 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.2% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.37 | 5.50 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SD | 20 | 20 | 118 | 498 | 77 | 40 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 5.01 | 5.13 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SD | 19 | 19 | 112 | 473 | 71 | 39 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 5.18 | 5.29 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SD | 18 | 18 | 106 | 448 | 64 | 38 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.2% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.37 | 5.50 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 143 | 134 | 745 | 3189 | 482 | 258 | 109 | 94% | 5.2 | 15.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 4.72 | +5.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 36 | 200 | 856 | 129 | 69 | 29 | 94% | 5.2 | 15.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 4.72 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 162 | 149 | 736 | 3199 | 577 | 286 | 90 | 92% | 4.5 | 18.0% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.25 | +9.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 40 | 200 | 869 | 157 | 78 | 24 | 92% | 4.5 | 18.0% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Randy Vásquez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.08 | 14.9% | 8.7% | 3.2% | — | 5.30 | 14.9% | 6.7% | 336 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 70 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .343 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | +0.40 | 3.26 | 493 | 68 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 68 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 68 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.43 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 4.9% | .287 | 3.97 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 277 | -1.46 | 3.23 | 622 | 67 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2024 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.37 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 195 | 67 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.02 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .306 | 4.58 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.56 | 4.02 | 203 | 67 |
| Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.61 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.61 | 278 | 66 |
| Joe Wieland R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 66 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 66 |
| Nate Long R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 65 |
| Mario Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.60 | 12.6% | 6.0% | 3.3% | .302 | 4.01 | 16.2% | 10.8% | 233 | -0.59 | 3.86 | 368 | 65 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.37 | 10.9% | 5.6% | 2.7% | .322 | 4.25 | 12.5% | 4.0% | 85 | -0.12 | 4.25 | 275 | 65 |
| Manuel Flores R 2028 · 4.14 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.14 | 13.8% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .317 | 3.61 | 14.4% | 9.2% | 263 | -0.53 | 3.55 | 515 | 65 |
| Greg Peavey R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.27 | 11.2% | 6.5% | 2.4% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 147 | 65 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 64 |
| Brannon Easterling R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.25 | 12.7% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 334 | 64 |
| Jason Forjet R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.39 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 197 | 64 |
| Caleb Clay R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.63 | 9.9% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 111 | 64 |
| Anthony Ranaudo R 2025 · 5.17 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.17 | 15.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 275 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 111 | 14.9% | 8.3% | 1.39 | 5.10 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Doug Fister ('18) | 4 | 110 | 15.8% | 7.5% | 1.19 | 4.56 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Homer Bailey ('19) | 4 | 96 | 18.5% | 7.8% | 1.34 | 5.56 |
| Matt Cain ('17) | 3 | 91 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 1.51 | 5.58 |