Randy Vásquez
P
San Diego Padres
+0.5
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'0" / 165 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 1.0 · 2027
ERA4.50
FIP4.78
xFIP3.49
SIERA3.37
K%15.7%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%7.3%
IP118
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2027
K†3045
FB Velo
p5594.9
Whiff%
p7128.6%
K%
p7226.3%
xwOBA vs
p350.329
FB+2.6 (43%)
CT+1.8 (25%)
SI (12%)
CU (13%)
SL (12%)
CH-0.6 (9%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Yankees West | 9 | 7 | 30 | 119 | 28 | 12 | 1 | 16.0% | 12.6% | 1.2% | 1.78 | 3.99 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 23 | 21 | 107 | 454 | 130 | 38 | 4 | 21.8% | 9.7% | 1.1% | 2.52 | 3.07 | +2.7 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 25 | 25 | 115 | 496 | 120 | 41 | 11 | 19.6% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 3.90 | 4.01 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | New York Yankees | 28 | 22 | 118 | 523 | 129 | 58 | 15 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.04 | 4.27 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 30 | 30 | 140 | 631 | 106 | 41 | 23 | 16.0% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 5.86 | 4.50 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 30 | 28 | 142 | 607 | 84 | 56 | 17 | 13.7% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 3.94 | 4.44 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 4 | 4 | 22 | 90 | 25 | 8 | 1 | 27.8% | 8.9% | 1.1% | 2.49 | 2.49 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SD | 16 | 16 | 88 | 370 | 72 | 32 | 10 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 3.77 | 3.99 | +1.2 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | SD | — | — | 109 | 460 | 97 | 40 | 11 | 21.1% | 8.6% | 2.3% | 3.52 | 3.69 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SD | 19 | 19 | 102 | 432 | 84 | 37 | 12 | 19.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 4.40 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SD | 17 | 17 | 93 | 392 | 74 | 34 | 11 | 19.0% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.41 | 4.48 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 84 | 354 | 65 | 31 | 10 | 18.4% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 4.57 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 75 | 318 | 63 | 26 | 9 | 19.8% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.40 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 54 | 23 | 8 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.52 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SD | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 47 | 21 | 8 | 18.6% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.64 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | SD | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 40 | 19 | 7 | 17.8% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | SD | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 33 | 17 | 6 | 17.1% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.84 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | SD | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 28 | 15 | 6 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 5.00 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 149 | 137 | 674 | 2920 | 542 | 268 | 72 | 18.5% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 3.98 | 4.06 | +9.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 41 | 200 | 866 | 161 | 80 | 21 | 18.5% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 3.98 | 4.06 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Randy Vásquez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.83 | 15.8% | 8.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.48 | 19.0% | 10.3% | 279 | -0.35 | — | — | — |
| Mike McCarthy R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.78 | 9.4% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .280 | 5.08 | 6.2% | -3.5% | 37 | +0.30 | 4.78 | 153 | 71 |
| Frank Batista R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 118 | 70 |
| Caleb Clay R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.67 | 9.9% | 6.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 111 | 69 |
| Colin Bates R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.57 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 111 | 69 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.96 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.96 | 106 | 69 |
| Scott McGregor R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 107 | 69 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.25 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -1.02 | 3.92 | 272 | 69 |
| Keith Couch R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.08 | 11.0% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 252 | 69 |
| Luke Irvine R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 68 |
| Nick Petree R 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.15 | 11.4% | 6.9% | 2.1% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 122 | 68 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 195 | 68 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.13 | 9.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .262 | 4.69 | 11.9% | 6.3% | 135 | +0.56 | 4.13 | 300 | 68 |
| David Reyes R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.30 | 10.9% | 6.1% | 2.5% | .330 | 4.92 | 13.8% | 6.5% | 84 | +0.62 | 3.37 | 465 | 68 |
| Brannon Easterling R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.37 | 12.7% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 334 | 67 |
| Sugar Ray Marimon R 2025 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.11 | 12.4% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 107 | 67 |
| Jesse Hahn R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.94 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2.8% | .315 | 3.58 | 16.6% | 6.9% | 95 | -1.36 | 2.19 | 404 | 67 |
| Zeke Spruill R 2024 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.94 | 11.8% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 114 | 67 |
| Mike Augliera R 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.27 | 12.0% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 114 | 67 |
| Tony Bucciferro R 2024 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.09 | 6.8% | 6.2% | 3.3% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.09 | 107 | 67 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 67 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-1
MLB Debut 2023
Service 3.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2029
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.6 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $4M | +1.0 | $8M | +$5M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.8 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $8M | $14M | +$6M | ||