Randy Vásquez

P San Diego Padres

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 165 lbs MLB peak 0.7 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	30	30	140	5.86	4.60	16.8%	6.5%	1.3	K 15.8% · BB 6.3% · FIP 4.55
2025	26	MIX2 levels	30	28	142	3.94	4.66	13.8%	9.2%	1.2	K 13.7% · BB 8.9% · FIP 4.58
2026	27	MIX2 levels	33	24	143	3.83	4.05	15.1%	6.0%	2.3	K 14.8% · BB 6.1% · FIP 4.08
2027PROJ	28	MLBSD	15	15	92	4.61	4.70	15.0%	7.0%	0.7
2028PROJ	29	MLBSD	10	10	63	4.76	4.86	14.4%	7.3%	0.4
2029PROJ	30	MLBSD	7	7	44	4.94	5.06	13.7%	7.6%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo58

xwOBA vs13

K%10

Form3.06 ERA (proj 4.61) · K 15.5% (proj 15.0%) · BB 4.2% (proj 7.0%) ▲ last 60d · 18 IP through Oct 27

CompsDavid Phelps (age 28) · Chase Anderson (age 28) · Armando Galarraga (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.61

FIP4.70

K%15.0%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%8.0%

Proj IP92

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 92 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p1019.1%

p1014.8%

xwOBA vs

p130.356

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees West	9	7	30	119	28	12	1	78%	3.4	16.0%	12.6%	3.4%	1.2%	1.78	3.99	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees West	9	7	30	119	28	12	1	78%	3.4	23.5%	10.1%	13.4%	0.8%	1.78	2.87	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	21	107	454	130	38	4	91%	4.7	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	1.1%	2.52	3.07	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	21	107	454	130	38	4	91%	4.7	28.6%	8.4%	20.3%	0.9%	2.52	2.22	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	25	25	115	496	120	41	11	100%	4.6	19.6%	9.1%	10.5%	2.6%	3.90	4.01	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	25	25	115	496	120	41	11	100%	4.6	24.2%	8.3%	15.9%	2.2%	3.90	3.33	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	22	118	523	129	58	15	79%	4.2	22.1%	10.3%	11.8%	3.0%	4.04	4.17	+1.7
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	22	118	523	129	58	15	79%	4.2	24.7%	11.1%	13.6%	2.9%	4.04	4.04	+1.9
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	140	631	106	41	23	100%	4.7	15.8%	6.3%	9.5%	3.6%	5.86	4.55	+1.4
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	140	631	106	41	23	100%	4.7	15.8%	6.3%	9.5%	3.6%	5.86	4.55	+1.4
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	140	631	106	41	23	100%	4.7	16.8%	6.5%	10.3%	3.6%	5.86	4.60	+1.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	28	142	607	84	56	17	93%	4.7	13.7%	8.9%	4.7%	2.7%	3.94	4.58	+1.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	28	142	607	84	56	17	93%	4.7	13.7%	8.9%	4.7%	2.7%	3.94	4.58	+1.3
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	28	142	607	84	56	17	93%	4.7	13.8%	9.2%	4.6%	2.8%	3.94	4.66	+1.2
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	24	143	596	90	36	16	73%	4.3	14.8%	6.1%	8.7%	2.7%	3.83	4.08	+2.2
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	24	143	596	90	36	16	73%	4.3	14.8%	6.1%	8.7%	2.7%	3.83	4.08	+2.2
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	24	143	596	90	36	16	73%	4.3	15.1%	6.0%	9.1%	2.7%	3.83	4.05	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			91	74	410	1754	260	133	50	81%	4.5	14.8%	7.6%	7.2%	2.9%	4.02	4.39	+4.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	SD	15	15	92	388	58	27	11	100%	6.1	15.0%	7.0%	8.0%	2.9%	4.61	4.70	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	63	264	38	19	8	100%	6.3	14.4%	7.3%	7.1%	3.0%	4.76	4.86	+0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	SD	7	7	44	185	25	14	6	100%	6.3	13.7%	7.6%	6.1%	3.2%	4.94	5.06	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	63	266	38	19	8	100%	6.3	14.4%	7.3%	7.1%	3.0%	4.76	4.86	+0.4
2029	30	MLB CTX	SD	7	7	44	186	25	14	6	100%	6.3	13.7%	7.6%	6.1%	3.2%	4.94	5.06	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		109	92	516	2204	323	166	64	84%	4.7	14.7%	7.5%	7.1%	2.9%	4.19	4.41	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		42	36	200	853	125	64	25	84%	4.7	14.7%	7.5%	7.1%	2.9%	4.19	4.41	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		178	157	796	3426	602	289	90	88%	4.5	17.6%	8.4%	9.1%	2.6%	3.99	4.12	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	39	200	861	151	73	23	88%	4.5	17.6%	8.4%	9.1%	2.6%	3.99	4.12	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 8 IPFIP 4.93 → 5.13 (+0.20)K% 16.2% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.22%	—	×0.860	13.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.51%	—	×0.900	12.16%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷0.981	×1.100	3.03%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 4.93 → 5.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 42 IPFIP 4.81 → 5.04 (+0.23)K% 22.0% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.00%	—	×0.860	18.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.50%	—	×0.900	5.85%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷1.078	×1.100	5.10%

Result: FIP 4.81 → 5.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 80 IPFIP 3.79 → 4.09 (+0.30)K% 26.9% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.89%	—	×0.860	23.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.20%	—	×0.900	10.08%
HR / BF /BF	2.80%	÷1.017	×1.100	3.03%

Result: FIP 3.79 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AASomerset Patriots · 115 IPFIP 3.32 → 4.01 (+0.69)K% 24.2% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.19%	—	×0.810	19.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.27%	—	×1.100	9.09%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷1.032	×1.200	2.58%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 3.32 → 4.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ATampa Tarpons · 50 IPFIP 2.68 → 3.69 (+1.00)K% 27.4% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.36%	—	×0.740	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.85%	—	×1.180	12.80%
HR / BF /BF	0.94%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.23%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.68 → 3.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 36 IPFIP 0.71 → 1.53 (+0.81)K% 36.6% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.55%	—	×0.770	28.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.52%	—	×1.150	6.34%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.71 → 1.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AASomerset Patriots · 21 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.06 (+0.56)K% 19.6% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.59%	—	×0.810	15.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.22%	—	×1.100	7.94%
HR / BF /BF	2.06%	÷1.053	×1.200	2.35%

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKGCL Yankees West · 30 IPFIP 2.85 → 3.99 (+1.14)K% 23.5% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.53%	—	×0.680	16.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.08%	—	×1.250	12.61%
HR / BF /BF	0.84%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.18%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.85 → 3.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Randy Vásquez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.94	14.1%	6.7%	106	+0.24	—	—	—
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	672	81
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	78
Armando Galarraga R 2010 · 5.06 FIP	28	SP	5.06	12.0%	8.1%	3.5%	.258	6.67	14.1%	2.6%	67	+1.61	3.92	584	73
Victor Santos R 2005 · 4.67 FIP	28	SP	4.67	13.9%	8.1%	3.1%	.278	4.90	16.0%	7.8%	179	+0.23	4.09	602	72
Josh Fogg R 2005 · 4.85 FIP	28	SP-	4.85	11.5%	5.7%	3.6%	.287	4.77	12.4%	5.7%	416	-0.08	0.87	1,159	71
Mike Thurman R 2001 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	14.6%	6.5%	3.2%	.303	3.46	15.1%	7.9%	33	-0.99	3.46	482	70
Jason Hammel R 2011 · 4.52 FIP	28	SP	4.52	12.7%	8.8%	2.5%	.275	3.89	20.3%	13.2%	434	-0.63	3.10	1,810	69
Rodrigo Lopez R 2004 · 4.21 FIP	28	SP-	4.21	16.9%	7.3%	2.9%	.275	4.57	14.2%	7.8%	478	+0.36	4.06	1,344	68
Claudio Vargas R 2006 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.5%	6.7%	3.6%	.289	4.48	17.2%	8.9%	213	-0.06	3.66	765	67
Jesse Hahn R 2017 · 3.66 FIP	28	SP	3.66	16.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.327	2.19	29.2%	16.9%	17	-1.47	2.19	499	66
Bud Norris R 2013 · 3.68 FIP	28	SP	3.68	19.0%	8.7%	2.0%	.330	4.05	20.0%	11.9%	361	+0.37	3.51	1,221	66
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	613	65
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	65
Randy Wells R 2011 · 5.10 FIP	28	SP	5.10	14.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.271	4.71	9.8%	-6.3%	29	-0.39	3.71	524	65
Brian Bannister R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP	3.97	14.7%	6.9%	2.2%	.287	5.42	13.3%	4.7%	128	+1.45	3.97	667	65
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	64
Matt Harvey R 2017 · 5.76 FIP	28	SP	5.76	15.5%	10.2%	4.9%	.298	4.71	19.0%	12.0%	249	-1.05	1.87	1,044	64
Todd Ritchie R 2000 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	15.4%	6.2%	3.2%	.301	4.29	13.2%	6.9%	369	-0.07	3.03	828	64
Tyler Wilson R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	27	SP-	4.45	12.1%	7.0%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	377	63
Jeff Niemann R 2011 · 4.12 FIP	28	SP	4.12	18.4%	6.3%	3.2%	.274	2.96	21.8%	14.1%	38	-1.16	2.96	544	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	87	14.7%	7.6%	1.13	4.25
Paul Kilgus ('87-'93, 3 WAR*)	2.7	109	14.0%*	8.0%*	1.09*	4.38*
Tom Hausman ('75-'82, 1 WAR*)	2.2	74	14.3%*	6.5%*	1.22*	4.45*
Ron Herbel ('63-'71, 1 WAR*)	4.5	112	14.9%*	8.0%*	1.15*	4.51*
Gustavo Chacin ('10)	1.8	92	13.4%	8.6%	1.17	4.23
Kendall Graveman ('25)	3.3	96	17.6%	8.1%	1.06	4.03
Ross Detwiler ('22)	3.8	68	15.3%	8.2%	1.11	4.56