Luis Curvelo

P Round Rock Express

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	AASEA	49	67	2.56	2.54	30.6%	7.1%	—	K 24.8% · BB 7.8% · FIP 3.57
2025	24	MIX2 levels	53	60	4.37	3.99	23.1%	10.6%	0.4	K 20.9% · BB 9.9% · FIP 4.17
2026	25	MIX2 levels	43	51	7.06	5.63	18.8%	10.6%	-0.6	K 16.5% · BB 9.8% · FIP 5.50
2027PROJ	26	MLBTEX	62	65	4.89	5.11	19.4%	10.2%	-0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	27	MLBTEX	26	27	4.96	5.06	19.8%	10.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	28	MLBTEX	37	39	5.02	5.09	20.0%	10.3%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo64

Whiff%25

K%10

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsJosh Zeid (age 26) · Casey Fien (age 25) · Scott Proctor (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA4.89

FIP5.11

K%19.4%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%9.2%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p2521.8%

p1011.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.387

SI (20%)

SL (29%)

FB-0.8 (50%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	9	3	31	120	22	4	0	33%	3.4	12.5%	4.2%	8.3%	0.0%	1.17	2.58	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	9	3	31	120	22	4	0	33%	3.4	18.3%	3.3%	15.0%	0.0%	1.17	2.06	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	12	0	23	92	32	3	1	0%	1.9	23.7%	4.1%	19.6%	1.5%	2.31	2.45	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	12	0	23	92	32	3	1	0%	1.9	34.8%	3.3%	31.5%	1.1%	2.31	1.30	—
2021	20	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	37	0	55	235	80	18	4	0%	1.5	25.2%	9.0%	16.2%	2.6%	3.58	3.53	—
2021	20	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	37	0	55	235	80	18	4	0%	1.5	34.0%	7.7%	26.4%	1.7%	3.58	2.12	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	37	1	52	228	57	28	9	3%	1.4	19.2%	14.1%	5.1%	4.0%	4.82	5.45	—
2022	21	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	37	1	52	228	57	28	9	3%	1.4	25.0%	12.3%	12.7%	3.9%	4.82	4.76	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	41	0	52	221	60	16	9	0%	1.3	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	5.0%	3.78	5.15	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	41	0	52	221	60	16	9	0%	1.3	27.1%	7.2%	19.9%	4.1%	3.78	3.96	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	49	0	67	255	78	18	5	0%	1.4	24.8%	7.8%	17.0%	2.9%	2.56	3.57	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	49	0	67	255	78	18	5	0%	1.4	24.8%	7.8%	17.0%	2.9%	2.56	3.57	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	49	0	67	255	78	18	5	0%	1.4	30.6%	7.1%	23.5%	2.0%	2.56	2.54	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	60	264	61	28	7	0%	1.1	20.9%	9.9%	11.0%	2.9%	4.37	4.17	+0.3
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	60	264	61	28	7	0%	1.1	20.9%	9.9%	11.0%	2.9%	4.37	4.17	+0.3
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	60	264	61	28	7	0%	1.1	23.1%	10.6%	12.5%	2.7%	4.37	3.99	+0.4
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	51	245	46	26	11	0%	1.2	16.5%	9.8%	6.7%	4.7%	7.06	5.50	-0.6
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	51	245	46	26	11	0%	1.2	16.5%	9.8%	6.7%	4.7%	7.06	5.50	-0.6
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	51	245	46	26	11	0%	1.2	18.8%	10.6%	8.2%	4.5%	7.06	5.63	-0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			26	0	29	139	26	14	7	0%	1.1	18.7%	10.1%	8.6%	5.0%	7.06	5.86	-0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TEX	62	0	65	274	53	28	10	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.2%	9.2%	3.6%	4.89	5.11	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TEX	61	0	64	270	53	27	10	0%	1.0	19.8%	10.2%	9.6%	3.6%	4.96	5.06	-0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	TEX	59	0	62	262	52	27	10	0%	1.1	20.0%	10.3%	9.7%	3.6%	5.02	5.09	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	TEX	26	0	27	114	23	12	4	0%	1.0	19.8%	10.2%	9.6%	3.6%	4.96	5.06	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	TEX	37	0	39	165	33	17	6	0%	1.1	20.0%	10.3%	9.7%	3.6%	5.02	5.09	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		89	0	95	418	81	42	17	0%	1.1	19.5%	10.2%	9.3%	4.1%	5.63	4.99	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		186	0	200	876	170	88	36	0%	1.1	19.5%	10.2%	9.3%	4.1%	5.63	4.99	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		281	4	391	1660	345	150	54	1%	1.4	20.8%	9.1%	11.7%	3.3%	3.91	4.28	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		144	2	200	848	176	77	28	1%	1.4	20.8%	9.1%	11.7%	3.3%	3.91	4.28	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Curvelo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	19.4%	10.2%	3.6%	—	5.07	19.9%	9.7%	126	-0.04	—	—	—
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	85
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	84
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	83
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	83
Chris Hatcher R 2012 · 5.60 FIP	27	SU	5.60	15.2%	9.1%	4.8%	.298	2.68	26.4%	20.9%	95	-2.92	2.51	246	83
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	82
Zach Bryant R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	26	SU	4.85	18.0%	9.6%	3.7%	.313	4.87	16.1%	5.0%	106	+0.02	4.51	215	82
Brian Sanches R 2006 · 5.30 FIP	27	SU	5.30	22.4%	10.2%	5.1%	.295	4.52	19.0%	10.1%	82	-0.78	3.39	229	81
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	81
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	81
Jake Barrett R 2017 · 5.20 FIP	26	SU	5.20	20.1%	11.5%	4.2%	.267	2.90	26.9%	15.2%	69	-2.30	1.48	230	80
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	80
Jack Hartman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	26	SU	4.34	20.9%	8.8%	3.4%	.310	4.29	17.6%	5.6%	46	-0.05	3.46	161	80
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	79
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	79
Greg Aquino R 2004 · 4.39 FIP	26	SU	4.39	17.7%	10.2%	2.7%	.196	4.57	22.3%	12.7%	94	+0.18	4.10	154	79
Woo-Suk Go R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	17.3%	8.8%	3.7%	.359	4.16	21.5%	10.2%	64	-0.64	3.57	116	79
Derrick Edington R 2024 · 5.84 FIP	25	SU	5.84	19.4%	9.7%	5.8%	.288	3.83	19.2%	9.3%	101	-2.01	3.15	125	79
Ross Wolf R 2010 · 3.95 FIP	27	SU	3.95	16.1%	8.9%	2.0%	.268	4.37	10.1%	3.3%	48	+0.42	3.43	179	79
Kyle Whitten R 2024 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	18.0%	9.9%	4.2%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	152	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	73	19.6%	10.5%	1.47	5.24
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*