Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 0 | 28 | 124 | 32 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.4% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 5.7% | 5.08 | 5.80 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 0 | 28 | 124 | 32 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.8% | 8.9% | 16.9% | 4.0% | 5.08 | 4.30 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 59 | 244 | 63 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.6% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 1.2% | 3.19 | 3.20 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 59 | 244 | 63 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.8% | 8.6% | 17.2% | 0.8% | 3.19 | 2.48 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 28 | 0 | 38 | 164 | 34 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 16.8% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TB | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 61 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TB | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | TB | — | — | 108 | 460 | 95 | 46 | 12 | — | — | 20.7% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 2.6% | 4.54 | 4.55 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | TB | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 20.7% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.22 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TB | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 60 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.62 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TB | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 57 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.69 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | TB | 58 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 53 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.81 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TB | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 23 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.62 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TB | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 32 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.69 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | TB | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 36 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.81 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 99 | 0 | 104 | 441 | 91 | 48 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.41 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 174 | 92 | 25 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 100 | 0 | 126 | 532 | 102 | 51 | 15 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.2% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.00 | 4.20 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 159 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 162 | 80 | 23 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.2% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.00 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Derrick Edington (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 20.7% | 10.8% | 2.7% | — | 4.77 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 194 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 90 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .325 | 4.53 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.65 | 3.88 | 500 | 87 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.11 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .296 | 3.74 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.37 | 3.74 | 146 | 86 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 86 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.26 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .211 | 4.51 | 24.6% | 14.3% | 98 | +0.25 | 4.26 | 258 | 86 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 86 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 86 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 86 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 85 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.43 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .321 | 2.78 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.65 | 2.29 | 538 | 85 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 85 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 85 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.87 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.34 | 18.5% | 10.4% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.74 | 277 | 85 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 84 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 84 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 83 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.43 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.0% | .241 | 3.28 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 43 | -0.15 | 2.51 | 131 | 83 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.52 | 17.4% | 10.0% | 1.1% | .317 | 2.96 | 17.5% | 13.1% | 49 | -0.56 | 2.96 | 137 | 83 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 83 |
| Pedro Beato R 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.40 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 1.5% | .276 | 4.18 | 19.0% | 11.2% | 192 | +0.78 | 3.40 | 295 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 66 | 20.7% | 10.9% | 1.14 | 4.67 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |