Ky Bush

P Birmingham Barons

Age 27 LHP 6'6" / 250 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

AASPD6040-MANROOKIEFG #417

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	22	AALAA	21	21	103	3.67	3.75	23.7%	6.8%	—	K 19.2% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.34
2023	23	MIX2 levels	17	17	72	6.91	5.37	24.1%	11.4%	—	K 18.6% · BB 13.2% · FIP 6.67
2024	24	MIX3 levels	24	22	124	3.63	3.94	21.3%	11.7%	1.4	K 17.9% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.48
2027PROJ	27	MLBCWS	14	14	87	4.80	5.02	18.8%	11.9%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBCWS	10	10	59	4.90	5.02	19.0%	11.7%	-0.1
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBCWS	13	13	79	5.01	5.12	18.6%	11.6%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

Whiff%32

FB Velo11

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsJared Koenig (age 27) · Misael Siverio (age 26) · Darin Gorski (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 129

ERA4.80

FIP5.02

K%18.8%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%6.8%

Proj IP87

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5055

CTRL—45

CMD4045

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1191.7

Whiff%

p3222.8%

p1012.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.363

CH+1.4 (10%)

CU (15%)

SL (24%)

FB-5.4 (51%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	5	5	12	54	20	5	0	100%	2.4	28.5%	10.6%	17.9%	0.0%	4.50	2.04	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	5	5	12	54	20	5	0	100%	2.4	37.0%	9.3%	27.8%	0.0%	4.50	1.02	—
2022	22	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	21	21	103	427	101	29	14	100%	4.9	19.2%	7.5%	11.7%	3.5%	3.67	4.34	—
2022	22	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	21	21	103	427	101	29	14	100%	4.9	23.7%	6.8%	16.9%	3.3%	3.67	3.75	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	72	324	78	37	16	100%	4.2	18.6%	13.2%	5.4%	6.3%	6.91	6.67	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	72	324	78	37	16	100%	4.2	24.1%	11.4%	12.7%	4.9%	6.91	5.37	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	22	124	520	111	61	11	92%	5.2	17.9%	12.1%	5.8%	2.5%	3.63	4.48	+0.6
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	22	124	520	111	61	11	92%	5.2	17.9%	12.1%	5.8%	2.5%	3.63	4.48	+0.6
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	22	124	520	111	61	11	92%	5.2	21.3%	11.7%	9.6%	2.1%	3.63	3.94	+1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	4	18	87	11	15	2	100%	4.4	12.6%	17.2%	-4.6%	2.3%	5.60	5.87	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CWS	14	14	87	367	69	44	11	100%	6.2	18.8%	11.9%	6.8%	2.9%	4.80	5.02	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	23	23	140	590	112	69	18	100%	6.1	19.0%	11.7%	7.3%	3.0%	4.90	5.02	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	133	563	105	65	18	100%	6.1	18.6%	11.6%	7.0%	3.2%	5.01	5.12	-0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	CWS	21	21	125	529	96	62	18	100%	6.0	18.1%	11.7%	6.4%	3.4%	5.16	5.29	-0.6
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	10	10	59	249	47	29	8	100%	5.9	19.0%	11.7%	7.3%	3.0%	4.90	5.02	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	79	334	62	39	11	100%	6.1	18.6%	11.6%	7.0%	3.2%	5.01	5.12	-0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	CWS	15	15	88	372	67	44	13	100%	5.9	18.1%	11.7%	6.4%	3.4%	5.16	5.29	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	42	244	1043	188	126	33	100%	5.8	18.0%	12.1%	5.9%	3.1%	5.08	4.84	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	855	154	103	27	100%	5.8	18.0%	12.1%	5.9%	3.1%	5.08	4.84	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		67	65	311	1325	251	143	48	97%	4.6	18.9%	10.8%	8.1%	3.6%	4.43	4.87	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	42	200	853	161	92	31	97%	4.6	18.9%	10.8%	8.1%	3.6%	4.43	4.87	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ky Bush (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	18.8%	11.9%	2.9%	—	5.14	18.6%	6.9%	398	+0.12	—	—	—
Jared Koenig L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	27	SP	5.11	16.0%	9.4%	4.0%	.270	3.78	20.1%	12.4%	267	-1.33	2.79	475	79
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	77
Darin Gorski L 2015 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP	4.93	15.2%	11.4%	3.0%	.323	4.50	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.43	4.50	206	76
Miguel Pena L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	16.8%	8.2%	2.3%	.288	5.08	16.0%	9.0%	68	+1.11	2.98	282	75
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	73
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	73
Jonathan Bermúdez L 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SP	4.67	21.5%	10.5%	3.8%	.310	4.79	19.2%	7.0%	101	+0.12	3.24	469	72
Michael O'Connor L 2006 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	105	72
Blair Walters L 2016 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP	4.66	14.6%	14.2%	1.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	262	71
Alejandro Astorga L 2015 · 4.35 FIP	28	SP	4.35	11.5%	10.2%	1.7%	.283	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	220	-0.48	3.72	311	71
Kramer Sneed L 2016 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	13.2%	8.2%	2.2%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	116	71
Wandy Rodriguez L 2006 · 4.43 FIP	27	SP-	4.43	16.0%	9.2%	2.8%	.311	3.58	21.7%	14.6%	526	-0.85	3.37	1,572	70
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	70
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	69
David Purcey L 2009 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	17.5%	13.0%	2.7%	.322	4.13	18.2%	5.4%	68	-0.62	3.60	206	69
Kaz Ishii L 2002 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	20.7%	14.9%	2.9%	.275	4.94	16.1%	2.9%	410	+0.11	4.51	564	69
Ben Holmes L 2019 · 5.57 FIP	27	SP	5.57	19.7%	11.1%	5.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	451	69
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	68
Colton Gordon L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SP	3.89	20.4%	6.7%	3.0%	.286	4.69	18.3%	13.4%	281	+0.80	2.73	586	68
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	128	18.4%	12.0%	1.20	5.00
Tyler Green ('98)	1.9	128	15.4%	11.8%	1.10	5.16
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Don Black ('43-'48, 0 WAR*)	4.0	133	17.4%*	10.4%*	1.28*	5.32*
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Mysterious Walker ('10-'15, -1 WAR*)	1.5	99	20.6%*	11.4%*	1.25*	5.38*