Chris Williams Jr.

Chris Williams Jr. P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 27 LHP 6'2" / 205 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 20 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%21.6%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	2	0	2	11	2	2	0	0%	0.8	18.2%	18.2%	0.0%	0.0%	16.20	3.87	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	2	0	2	11	2	2	0	0%	0.8	18.2%	18.2%	0.0%	0.0%	16.20	4.30	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	4	49	225	55	38	7	14%	1.8	19.4%	20.4%	-1.0%	3.6%	4.78	6.01	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	4	49	225	55	38	7	14%	1.8	24.4%	16.9%	7.6%	3.1%	4.78	5.04	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	1	8	36	6	9	0	17%	1.3	16.7%	25.0%	-8.3%	0.0%	9.00	4.86	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	1	8	36	6	9	0	17%	1.3	16.7%	25.0%	-8.3%	0.0%	9.00	4.86	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	1	8	36	6	9	0	17%	1.3	16.7%	25.0%	-8.3%	0.0%	9.00	4.97	—
2025	25	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	28	0	33	164	42	19	6	0%	1.2	19.0%	13.7%	5.3%	5.5%	5.13	6.25	—
2025	25	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	28	0	33	164	42	19	6	0%	1.2	19.0%	13.7%	5.3%	5.5%	5.13	6.25	—
2025	25	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	28	0	33	164	42	19	6	0%	1.2	25.6%	11.6%	14.0%	3.7%	5.13	4.63	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	DET	19	0	20	84	18	10	3	0%	1.1	21.6%	12.0%	9.6%	3.1%	4.88	4.88	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	DET	19	0	20	84	18	10	3	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.9%	9.8%	3.2%	4.88	4.91	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	DET	7	0	7	30	6	4	1	0%	1.0	21.7%	11.9%	9.8%	3.2%	4.88	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	4	1	0%	1.0	21.7%	11.9%	9.8%	3.2%	4.88	4.53	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	110	28	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.9%	9.8%	3.2%	4.88	4.53	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		64	5	92	436	83	79	17	8%	1.4	19.0%	18.2%	0.8%	3.9%	5.48	5.96	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		139	11	200	948	180	173	37	8%	1.4	19.0%	18.2%	0.8%	3.9%	5.48	5.96	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chris Williams Jr. (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	21.6%	12.0%	3.1%	—	4.91	21.7%	9.8%	20	+0.03	—	—	—
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	84
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	84
Nick Hagadone L 2013 · 4.75 FIP	27	SU	4.75	22.6%	15.0%	3.0%	.253	3.34	25.9%	19.0%	51	-1.41	2.97	141	82
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	80
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	80
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	80
Jackson Lancaster L 2024 · 4.48 FIP	25	SU	4.48	24.0%	11.1%	3.6%	.355	5.36	18.3%	4.9%	93	+0.88	4.15	142	80
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	80
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	79
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	79
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	79
Mike Gosling L 2007 · 4.67 FIP	26	SU	4.67	19.5%	12.2%	3.0%	.346	5.66	11.4%	2.6%	25	+0.99	4.44	116	79
Doug Slaten L 2007 · 4.08 FIP	27	SU	4.08	17.2%	8.6%	2.5%	.316	3.81	17.6%	8.2%	73	-0.27	3.22	139	79
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	79
Bryan Harper L 2016 · 4.13 FIP	26	SU	4.13	19.3%	9.6%	2.6%	.197	4.63	14.9%	1.0%	46	+0.50	4.13	133	78
Matt Thornton L 2004 · 4.18 FIP	27	SU	4.18	20.3%	16.2%	1.4%	.304	4.18	21.8%	11.5%	167	-0.00	1.71	663	78
Braulio Lara L 2016 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	17.7%	11.0%	2.5%	.289	5.80	19.8%	2.0%	40	+1.45	3.96	118	78
Brad Kuntz L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	26	SU	4.10	20.9%	11.7%	2.4%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	2.35	197	78
Jeremy Horst L 2013 · 4.46 FIP	27	SU	4.46	17.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.356	3.92	17.2%	5.4%	108	-0.54	2.12	181	78
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	77