Austin Cox

P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 30 LHP 6'4" / 235 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	MIX2 levels	36	12	83	4.01	4.93	20.9%	11.0%	-0.4	K 19.3% · BB 10.4% · FIP 5.37
2024	27	MIX2 levels	42	5	61	3.86	4.65	24.2%	14.9%	—	K 20.6% · BB 13.7% · FIP 4.83
2025	28	MIX2 levels	44	2	61	5.87	5.35	20.7%	8.6%	-0.6	K 18.9% · BB 8.0% · FIP 5.40
2027PROJ	30	MLBATL	61	0	64	5.03	5.27	17.7%	9.5%	-0.5
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBATL	21	0	22	5.22	5.41	17.5%	9.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBATL	30	0	31	5.40	5.58	17.1%	10.1%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.9 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%46

FB Velo25

Whiff%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsKelvin Marte (age 29) · John Rheinecker (age 28) · Luke Westphal (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117125vR 133

ERA5.03

FIP5.27

K%17.7%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%8.2%

Proj IP64

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2592.7

Whiff%

p1018.4%

p4621.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.370

CU (18%)

CT-2.5 (3%)

SL-2.7 (33%)

FB-6.7 (36%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	Burlington Royals	9	9	33	143	51	15	1	100%	3.7	24.3%	13.1%	11.1%	1.0%	3.78	3.25	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Burlington Royals	9	9	33	143	51	15	1	100%	3.7	35.7%	10.5%	25.2%	0.7%	3.78	1.78	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	131	534	129	38	11	96%	5.4	18.2%	8.3%	9.9%	2.7%	2.76	4.10	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	131	534	129	38	11	96%	5.4	24.2%	7.1%	17.0%	2.1%	2.76	3.09	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	16	68	291	60	30	11	94%	4.0	17.4%	10.6%	6.9%	3.9%	4.10	5.08	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	16	68	291	60	30	11	94%	4.0	20.6%	10.3%	10.3%	3.8%	4.10	4.76	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	29	24	147	648	105	50	20	83%	5.1	14.3%	8.1%	6.2%	3.5%	4.21	4.82	—
2022	25	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	29	24	147	648	105	50	20	83%	5.1	16.2%	7.7%	8.5%	3.1%	4.21	4.46	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	12	83	344	72	38	14	33%	2.3	19.3%	10.4%	8.9%	4.7%	4.01	5.37	-0.8
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	12	83	344	72	38	14	33%	2.3	20.9%	11.0%	9.9%	4.1%	4.01	4.93	-0.4
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	5	61	269	65	40	8	12%	1.4	20.6%	13.7%	7.0%	3.2%	3.86	4.83	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	5	61	269	65	40	8	12%	1.4	20.6%	13.7%	7.0%	3.2%	3.86	4.83	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	5	61	269	65	40	8	12%	1.4	24.2%	14.9%	9.3%	3.0%	3.86	4.65	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	2	61	280	58	24	14	5%	1.4	18.9%	8.0%	10.9%	5.3%	5.87	5.40	-0.6
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	2	61	280	58	24	14	5%	1.4	18.9%	8.0%	10.9%	5.3%	5.87	5.40	-0.6
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	2	61	280	58	24	14	5%	1.4	20.7%	8.6%	12.1%	5.0%	5.87	5.35	-0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			37	4	57	251	55	24	11	11%	1.5	21.9%	9.6%	12.4%	4.4%	6.16	4.94	-0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	ATL	61	0	64	270	48	26	10	0%	1.0	17.7%	9.5%	8.2%	3.8%	5.03	5.27	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	ATL	57	0	60	253	44	25	10	0%	1.1	17.5%	9.8%	7.7%	3.9%	5.22	5.41	-0.6
2029	32	MLB MLE	ATL	53	0	56	234	40	24	10	0%	1.0	17.1%	10.1%	7.0%	4.1%	5.40	5.58	-0.6
2028	31	MLB CTX	ATL	21	0	22	93	16	9	4	0%	1.0	17.5%	9.8%	7.7%	3.9%	5.22	5.41	-0.2
2029	32	MLB CTX	ATL	30	0	31	131	22	13	5	0%	1.0	17.1%	10.1%	7.0%	4.1%	5.40	5.58	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		87	4	110	473	93	46	20	5%	1.3	19.7%	9.8%	10.0%	4.2%	5.76	4.99	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		159	7	200	863	170	84	36	5%	1.3	19.7%	9.8%	10.0%	4.2%	5.76	4.99	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		201	91	584	2509	450	241	89	45%	2.9	17.9%	9.6%	8.3%	3.5%	3.96	4.75	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	31	200	859	154	83	30	45%	2.9	17.9%	9.6%	8.3%	3.5%	3.96	4.75	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Cox (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.27	17.7%	9.5%	3.8%	—	5.49	17.3%	7.4%	116	+0.22	—	—	—
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	74
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	73
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	72
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	69
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	68
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	67
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	66
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	66
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	66
Miguel Pena L 2019 · 5.08 FIP	28	SW	5.08	16.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	282	65
Andy Otero L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	30	SW	4.36	14.5%	8.9%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	200	65
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	64
Tommy Phelps L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	30	SW	4.80	19.4%	8.3%	4.2%	.286	3.98	13.2%	5.7%	23	-0.82	3.39	120	64
Chris Michalak L 2001 · 4.92 FIP	30	SP-	4.92	11.0%	8.2%	3.1%	.291	4.71	7.0%	-4.3%	14	-0.21	4.71	186	64
Mike Kickham L 2019 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	19.3%	9.6%	2.6%	.311	5.98	18.8%	8.7%	61	+1.86	3.00	397	62
Daniel Camarena L 2023 · 4.94 FIP	30	SP-	4.94	14.0%	5.6%	4.2%	.342	6.81	13.2%	2.4%	51	+1.87	3.76	674	60
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	59
Chad Bell L 2018 · 4.38 FIP	29	SU	4.38	18.8%	7.4%	3.5%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	393	58
Brian Johnson L 2021 · 4.94 FIP	30	SP-	4.94	15.5%	9.1%	3.6%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	506	57
Bobby Jones L 2002 · 5.24 FIP	30	SU	5.24	14.3%	12.7%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	321	56

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	47	18.5%	9.7%	1.57	5.44
Josh Osich ('21)	1.1	55	20.7%	9.0%	1.84	5.02
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Dave Stevens ('00)	1.3	50	14.6%	11.3%	1.76	6.02
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*