Mitchell Parker

P Washington Nationals

Age 27 LHP 6'4" / 239 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBRPD6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	30	30	155	4.18	3.68	20.9%	6.7%	2.3	K 20.6% · BB 6.7% · FIP 3.73
2025	25	MLBWSH	33	30	165	5.68	4.88	14.2%	8.0%	0.0
2026	26	MIX2 levels	25	3	53	6.45	4.82	21.0%	6.7%	-0.2	K 20.1% · BB 6.6% · FIP 4.82
2027PROJ	27	MLBWSH	9	9	56	5.02	4.99	17.1%	7.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ	28	MLBWSH	15	15	92	5.05	5.08	17.0%	7.9%	-0.2
2029PROJ	29	MLBWSH	15	15	88	5.16	5.24	16.4%	8.2%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Whiff%68

FB Velo37

K%29

xwOBA vs20

CompsDavid Huff (age 27) · Dan Serafini (age 26) · Matt Chico (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA5.02

FIP4.99

K%17.1%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP56

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5555

CTRL3535

CMD3030

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p6828.1%

p2919.1%

xwOBA vs

p200.347

FB+2.4 (34%)

CU (16%)

SL-2.4 (50%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	102	451	144	38	12	91%	4.4	24.0%	9.8%	14.2%	3.2%	4.87	4.08	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	102	451	144	38	12	91%	4.4	31.9%	8.4%	23.5%	2.7%	4.87	2.92	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	24	24	100	436	117	67	3	100%	4.2	20.7%	17.7%	3.0%	0.8%	2.88	4.02	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	24	24	100	436	117	67	3	100%	4.2	26.8%	15.4%	11.5%	0.7%	2.88	3.16	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	124	538	150	61	13	93%	4.4	22.8%	12.2%	10.5%	2.6%	4.72	4.14	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	124	538	150	61	13	93%	4.4	27.9%	11.3%	16.5%	2.4%	4.72	3.52	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	155	661	138	44	18	100%	5.2	20.6%	6.7%	13.9%	2.8%	4.18	3.73	+2.2
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	155	661	138	44	18	100%	5.2	20.6%	6.7%	13.9%	2.8%	4.18	3.73	+2.2
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	155	661	138	44	18	100%	5.2	20.9%	6.7%	14.2%	2.7%	4.18	3.68	+2.3
2025	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	33	30	165	725	103	58	25	91%	5.0	14.2%	8.0%	6.2%	3.4%	5.68	4.81	+0.2
2025	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	33	30	165	725	103	58	25	91%	5.0	14.2%	8.0%	6.2%	3.4%	5.68	4.81	+0.2
2025	25	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	33	30	165	725	103	58	25	91%	5.0	14.2%	8.0%	6.2%	3.4%	5.68	4.88	+0.0
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	3	53	238	50	16	11	12%	2.1	20.1%	6.6%	13.5%	4.7%	6.45	4.82	-0.2
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	3	53	238	50	16	11	12%	2.1	20.1%	6.6%	13.5%	4.7%	6.45	4.82	-0.2
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	3	53	238	50	16	11	12%	2.1	21.0%	6.7%	14.3%	4.6%	6.45	4.82	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			84	59	355	1549	270	114	52	70%	4.2	17.4%	7.4%	10.1%	3.4%	5.19	4.45	+1.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	WSH	9	9	56	236	40	18	8	100%	6.2	17.1%	7.8%	9.3%	3.6%	5.02	4.99	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	92	388	66	31	14	100%	6.1	17.0%	7.9%	9.0%	3.7%	5.05	5.08	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	88	371	61	30	14	100%	5.9	16.4%	8.2%	8.2%	3.8%	5.16	5.24	-0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	82	348	55	30	14	100%	5.9	15.7%	8.5%	7.2%	4.0%	5.33	5.44	-0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	15	15	92	388	66	31	14	100%	6.1	17.0%	7.9%	9.0%	3.7%	5.05	5.08	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	15	15	88	372	61	30	14	100%	5.9	16.4%	8.2%	8.2%	3.8%	5.16	5.24	-0.3
2030	30	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	82	346	54	29	14	100%	5.9	15.7%	8.5%	7.2%	4.0%	5.33	5.44	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		128	103	618	2656	451	205	95	80%	4.8	17.0%	7.7%	9.3%	3.6%	5.18	4.60	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	33	200	860	146	66	31	80%	4.8	17.0%	7.7%	9.3%	3.6%	5.18	4.60	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		163	134	698	3049	608	305	86	82%	4.3	19.9%	10.0%	9.9%	2.8%	4.72	4.24	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	38	200	873	174	87	25	82%	4.3	19.9%	10.0%	9.9%	2.8%	4.72	4.24	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mitchell Parker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	17.1%	7.8%	3.6%	—	5.25	16.4%	8.2%	262	+0.26	—	—	—
David Huff L 2012 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	16.7%	4.4%	4.4%	.294	3.82	17.2%	11.4%	154	-0.84	3.40	540	67
Dan Serafini L 2000 · 5.27 FIP	26	SP-	5.27	11.7%	9.0%	3.7%	.300	5.44	9.2%	0.0%	30	+0.17	3.71	259	63
Matt Chico L 2008 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	14.2%	7.3%	4.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	5.15	215	63
Ryan Rowland-Smith L 2010 · 6.09 FIP	27	SP-	6.09	9.6%	8.2%	5.0%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	363	59
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	57
Sean Newcomb L 2020 · 6.12 FIP	27	SP	6.12	14.3%	8.6%	5.7%	.320	3.92	27.2%	12.4%	147	-2.20	2.76	1,030	57
Brandon Claussen L 2006 · 4.89 FIP	27	SP	4.89	16.2%	7.7%	4.0%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	310	56
Greg Smith L 2010 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP	5.33	17.0%	12.1%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	349	56
Kyle Freeland L 2020 · 4.22 FIP	27	SP	4.22	15.1%	7.6%	2.6%	.301	4.22	16.9%	10.1%	451	+0.00	3.37	1,627	55
Steven Brault L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	19.8%	10.1%	3.2%	.301	3.81	18.8%	8.2%	70	-0.66	3.12	691	55
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	55
Aaron Laffey L 2012 · 5.39 FIP	27	SP-	5.39	11.2%	8.4%	4.0%	.253	4.20	13.6%	3.1%	103	-1.19	3.34	769	55
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	55
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	55
Jimmy Anderson L 2003 · 5.78 FIP	27	SP	5.78	7.1%	7.1%	4.3%	.347	3.46	8.6%	0.0%	16	-2.32	3.46	575	54
Mark Redman L 2001 · 4.62 FIP	27	SP	4.62	12.6%	8.8%	2.7%	.308	4.02	14.6%	7.8%	585	-0.60	3.52	1,239	54
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.34	16.7%	9.5%	356	-0.53	3.68	579	54
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	719	53
Doug Davis L 2003 · 5.11 FIP	27	SP	5.11	12.6%	10.2%	3.3%	.295	3.86	19.6%	9.9%	633	-1.25	3.47	1,713	53
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	53

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	97	17.0%	7.7%	1.38	5.17
Boof Bonser ('10)	2.1	104	18.2%	7.2%	1.36	5.18
Chad Bettis ('19)	3.0	86	16.2%	7.9%	1.18	5.12
Don Johnson ('47-'58, -0 WAR*)	3.2	90	17.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	5.07*
Chris Flexen ('25)	3.5	115	16.1%	8.5%	1.38	4.83
Joe Presko ('51-'58, 2 WAR*)	2.5	123	16.9%*	8.3%*	1.32*	4.90*
Joe Moeller ('62-'71, -1 WAR*)	2.9	97	16.0%*	7.3%*	1.16*	4.98*