Tyler Ras

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	25	AHOU	5	5	8.44	5.35	29.2%	0.0%	—	K 29.2% · BB 0.0% · FIP 5.21
2026	26	AACHC	41	68	2.13	2.70	26.7%	7.9%	—	K 21.6% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.36
2027PROJ	27	MLBCHC	45	47	4.22	4.22	21.9%	8.8%	0.2
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBCHC	16	17	4.28	4.31	21.9%	8.9%	0.0
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBCHC	23	24	4.38	4.44	21.8%	9.2%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsAustin Ross (age 27) · Santiago Casilla (age 27) · Fernando Rodriguez Jr. (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.22

FIP4.22

K%21.9%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%13.2%

Proj IP47

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	5	0	4	14	10	1	0	0%	0.9	71.4%	7.1%	64.3%	0.0%	0.00	-2.03	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	5	0	4	14	10	1	0	0%	0.9	71.4%	7.1%	64.3%	0.0%	0.00	-0.82	—
2022	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	39	0	51	231	49	26	8	0%	1.3	15.7%	13.3%	2.4%	4.8%	4.91	6.07	—
2022	22	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	39	0	51	231	49	26	8	0%	1.3	21.2%	11.3%	10.0%	3.5%	4.91	4.74	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	7	0	11	49	10	3	1	0%	1.5	20.4%	6.1%	14.3%	2.0%	5.91	3.27	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	7	0	11	49	10	3	1	0%	1.5	20.4%	6.1%	14.3%	2.0%	5.91	3.29	—
2025	25	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	5	0	5	24	7	0	2	0%	1.1	29.2%	0.0%	29.2%	8.3%	8.44	5.21	—
2025	25	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	5	0	5	24	7	0	2	0%	1.1	29.2%	0.0%	29.2%	8.3%	8.44	5.21	—
2025	25	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	5	0	5	24	7	0	2	0%	1.1	29.2%	0.0%	29.2%	8.3%	8.44	5.35	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	41	0	68	266	71	21	4	0%	1.7	21.6%	8.7%	12.9%	1.8%	2.13	3.36	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	41	0	68	266	71	21	4	0%	1.7	21.6%	8.7%	12.9%	1.8%	2.13	3.36	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Knoxville Smokies	41	0	68	266	71	21	4	0%	1.7	26.7%	7.9%	18.8%	1.5%	2.13	2.70	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CHC	45	0	47	198	44	17	5	0%	1.0	21.9%	8.8%	13.2%	2.7%	4.22	4.22	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	44	0	46	194	43	17	5	0%	1.0	21.9%	8.9%	13.0%	2.8%	4.28	4.31	+0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	CHC	42	0	44	185	40	17	6	0%	1.0	21.8%	9.2%	12.6%	3.0%	4.38	4.44	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	16	0	17	72	16	6	2	0%	1.1	21.9%	8.9%	13.0%	2.8%	4.28	4.31	+0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	CHC	23	0	24	101	22	9	3	0%	1.0	21.8%	9.2%	12.6%	3.0%	4.38	4.44	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	0	42	176	39	16	5	0%	1.0	21.9%	9.1%	12.8%	2.9%	4.34	4.01	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	77	24	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.1%	12.8%	2.9%	4.34	4.01	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		97	0	139	584	121	58	19	0%	1.4	20.7%	9.9%	10.8%	3.2%	3.62	4.37	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		139	0	200	838	173	83	27	0%	1.4	20.7%	9.9%	10.8%	3.2%	3.62	4.37	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Ras (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.22	21.9%	8.8%	2.7%	—	4.37	21.9%	12.8%	90	+0.15	—	—	—
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	90
Santiago Casilla R 2007 · 3.58 FIP	27	SU	3.58	23.7%	7.8%	2.7%	.257	3.60	19.8%	10.7%	154	+0.02	2.76	647	89
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	89
Jose Veras R 2008 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	24.9%	9.1%	2.8%	.281	4.10	23.8%	11.7%	169	+0.43	3.37	422	88
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	88
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	87
Josh Lueke R 2011 · 3.24 FIP	26	SU	3.24	20.4%	8.5%	1.4%	.323	4.75	18.7%	12.4%	52	+1.51	2.29	191	87
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	87
Matt Ramsey R 2017 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	24.2%	9.6%	1.8%	.330	3.21	23.6%	14.6%	81	-0.04	2.42	125	87
Blake Smith R 2015 · 3.17 FIP	27	SU	3.17	23.3%	10.5%	1.3%	.290	3.59	22.4%	13.8%	71	+0.42	3.17	124	87
Ryan Kelly R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	20.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.241	3.21	20.8%	14.2%	43	-0.31	2.49	131	87
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2011 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	22.1%	9.6%	1.5%	.253	3.18	22.9%	13.4%	218	-0.10	2.72	398	87
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	86
Matt Pushard R 2024 · 3.87 FIP	26	SU	3.87	24.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	3.29	22.2%	14.0%	115	-0.58	2.84	220	86
Cole Sulser R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	22.6%	10.2%	1.9%	.321	2.85	28.2%	18.4%	140	-0.67	2.38	554	86
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	86
Seth Simmons R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	27	SU	3.07	23.8%	9.7%	1.4%	.277	4.87	16.6%	7.6%	175	+1.80	3.07	251	86
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	86
Jason Motte R 2009 · 4.62 FIP	27	SU	4.62	22.1%	9.0%	4.1%	.297	2.84	26.9%	21.0%	192	-1.78	2.22	387	85
Jared Burton R 2008 · 3.56 FIP	27	SU	3.56	22.6%	8.6%	2.3%	.292	3.51	17.0%	10.6%	59	-0.05	3.09	367	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	21.9%	9.0%	1.10	4.29
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*