Joey Gerber
P
Syracuse Mets
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 29
RHP
6'4" / 212 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2027
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
xFIP0.33
SIERA0.98
K%23.7%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%14.7%
IP32
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2027
STUF5555
CTRL5555
CMD6060
K†6060
FB Velo
p3393.3
Whiff%
p1420.2%
K%
p109.7%
xwOBA vs
p280.338
FB (55%)
SL (45%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 9 | 0 | 12 | 47 | 22 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.31 | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 44 | 0 | 49 | 204 | 69 | 19 | 2 | 26.6% | 10.5% | 1.5% | 2.59 | 3.01 | +1.1 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 17 | 0 | 16 | 62 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9.7% | 8.1% | 1.5% | 4.02 | 4.15 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 26 | 1 | 33 | 142 | 40 | 15 | 3 | 21.7% | 11.8% | 2.6% | 2.43 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 37 | 10 | 49 | 212 | 59 | 15 | 10 | 24.6% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 5.73 | 4.06 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 5 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 10 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | NYM | 14 | — | 14 | 60 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 24.2% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 4.18 | 4.18 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 21 | 92 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 26.7% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 4.07 | 2.79 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 31 | 11 | 4 | 23.6% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.24 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 29 | 11 | 4 | 23.0% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.33 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 27 | 11 | 4 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.43 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 139 | 11 | 166 | 704 | 175 | 68 | 16 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 2.3% | 3.63 | 3.49 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 167 | 13 | 200 | 848 | 211 | 82 | 19 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 2.3% | 3.63 | 3.49 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joey Gerber (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.18 | 24.2% | 8.0% | 3.1% | — | 4.39 | 23.0% | 14.6% | 90 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 85 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 84 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.95 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.92 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.03 | 3.51 | 134 | 83 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 82 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 80 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 78 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 78 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 77 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 76 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.25 | 24.6% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.48 | 13.0% | -0.4% | 31 | +2.23 | 3.25 | 150 | 76 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 76 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 76 |
| Kaleb Fleck R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.50 | 24.6% | 5.9% | 3.1% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 177 | 76 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2025 · 4.70 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.70 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 4.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 158 | 75 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 75 |
| Rafael Montero R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.57 | 26.4% | 8.3% | 3.0% | .222 | 3.34 | 24.6% | 16.3% | 185 | -0.23 | 2.40 | 643 | 75 |
| Stephen Fife R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.10 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 1.0% | .329 | 3.65 | 14.1% | 8.3% | 152 | +0.55 | 3.10 | 179 | 75 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.05 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .329 | 3.89 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 129 | +0.84 | 3.05 | 227 | 75 |
| Matt Albers R 2029 · 3.13 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.13 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.47 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 147 | +1.34 | 3.13 | 244 | 75 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2029 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.32 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.11 | 3.21 | 425 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.