Joey Gerber
P
Syracuse Mets
Age 29
RHP
6'4" / 212 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 31 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10393vR 84
ERA3.64
FIP3.64
K%24.1%
BB%7.8%
K-BB%16.3%
ROS IP31
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB (54%)
CT (42%)
CH (2%)
SL (2%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 9 | 0 | 12 | 47 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 46.8% | 10.6% | 36.2% | 0.0% | 2.31 | 0.49 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 9 | 0 | 12 | 47 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 46.8% | 10.6% | 36.2% | 0.0% | 2.31 | 0.61 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 49 | 204 | 69 | 19 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.6% | 10.5% | 16.1% | 2.1% | 2.59 | 3.32 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 49 | 204 | 69 | 19 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.8% | 9.3% | 24.5% | 1.0% | 2.59 | 1.97 | — |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 17 | 0 | 16 | 62 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 9.7% | 8.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 4.02 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 17 | 0 | 16 | 62 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 9.7% | 8.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 4.02 | 4.12 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 26 | 1 | 33 | 142 | 40 | 15 | 3 | 4% | 1.3 | 21.7% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 2.5% | 2.43 | 4.12 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 26 | 1 | 33 | 142 | 40 | 15 | 3 | 4% | 1.3 | 28.2% | 10.6% | 17.6% | 2.1% | 2.43 | 3.22 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 37 | 10 | 49 | 212 | 59 | 15 | 10 | 27% | 1.3 | 24.6% | 8.2% | 16.5% | 2.9% | 5.73 | 3.65 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 37 | 10 | 49 | 212 | 59 | 15 | 10 | 27% | 1.3 | 27.8% | 7.1% | 20.8% | 4.7% | 5.73 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 28 | 1 | 34 | 146 | 32 | 12 | 3 | 4% | 1.2 | 19.4% | 7.7% | 11.7% | 2.0% | 5.29 | 3.55 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | NYM | 29 | 0 | 31 | 130 | 31 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 7.8% | 16.3% | 2.9% | 3.64 | 3.64 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | NYM | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 32 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 7.8% | 16.3% | 2.9% | 3.64 | 3.64 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 65 | 276 | 63 | 22 | 7 | — | — | 22.9% | 8.0% | 14.9% | 2.4% | 4.51 | 3.59 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 39 | 166 | 63 | 22 | 7 | — | — | 38.3% | 13.4% | 24.9% | 4.1% | 7.46 | 3.80 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 52 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 55 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 15.4% | 3.2% | 4.19 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 49 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 50 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 14.2% | 3.4% | 4.38 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 45 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 45 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 4.60 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 53 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 15.4% | 3.2% | 4.19 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 48 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 14.2% | 3.4% | 4.38 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 43 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 4.60 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 194 | 0 | 205 | 856 | 192 | 74 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 13.8% | 3.2% | 4.19 | 4.06 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 836 | 188 | 72 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 13.8% | 3.2% | 4.19 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 162 | 12 | 193 | 818 | 194 | 77 | 18 | 7% | 1.2 | 23.7% | 9.4% | 14.3% | 2.2% | 3.92 | 3.49 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 168 | 12 | 200 | 848 | 201 | 80 | 19 | 7% | 1.2 | 23.7% | 9.4% | 14.3% | 2.2% | 3.92 | 3.49 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joey Gerber (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.98 | 24.9% | 7.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.50 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 153 | +0.52 | — | — | — |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 84 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 82 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 81 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.45 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .299 | 3.95 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.50 | 3.53 | 134 | 80 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2027 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 27.1% | 6.6% | 2.5% | .292 | 4.66 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 137 | +1.61 | 3.05 | 176 | 79 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 79 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.27 | 24.6% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.34 | 13.0% | -0.4% | 31 | +2.07 | 3.27 | 150 | 78 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 78 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 78 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 78 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.07 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .329 | 3.81 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 129 | +0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 78 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 76 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 160 | 76 |
| Anthony Swarzak R 2026 · 2.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.83 | 21.3% | 4.9% | 1.7% | .386 | 3.64 | 26.1% | 19.8% | 181 | +0.81 | 2.45 | 260 | 76 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.35 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 4.1% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 158 | 76 |
| Joakim Soria R 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 76 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.49 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.63 | 2.36 | 172 | 75 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 75 |
| Kaleb Fleck R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.61 | 24.6% | 5.9% | 3.4% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 177 | 74 |
| Rafael Montero R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.41 | 26.4% | 8.3% | 2.7% | .222 | 3.23 | 24.6% | 16.3% | 185 | -0.18 | 2.38 | 663 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 48 | 23.6% | 8.7% | 1.27 | 4.30 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |