Carlos Tavera

P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	25	8	85	5.51	4.83	21.9%	13.8%	—	K 18.3% · BB 13.3% · FIP 5.12
2025	26	MIX3 levels	18	2	24	4.56	3.44	22.7%	13.6%	—	K 20.5% · BB 12.1% · FIP 3.85
2026	27	AABAL	10	0	14	5.93	6.03	29.0%	12.9%	—	K 23.5% · BB 14.2% · FIP 7.16
2027PROJ	28	MLBBAL	11	0	12	5.11	5.11	20.9%	12.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBBAL	6	0	6	5.11	5.16	20.9%	12.3%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsCarlos Torres (age 27) · Nelson Gonzalez (age 28) · Jason García (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.11

FIP5.11

K%20.9%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%8.5%

Proj IP12

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	6	3	12	51	13	12	0	50%	2.0	18.9%	27.8%	-8.9%	0.0%	2.25	5.02	—
2021	22	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	6	3	12	51	13	12	0	50%	2.0	25.5%	23.5%	2.0%	0.0%	2.25	3.93	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	16	16	57	246	81	34	8	100%	3.6	25.4%	15.9%	9.5%	4.0%	4.40	5.14	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	16	16	57	246	81	34	8	100%	3.6	32.9%	13.8%	19.1%	3.3%	4.40	3.87	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	23	17	80	368	89	58	15	74%	3.5	19.6%	17.3%	2.3%	4.0%	4.86	5.86	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	23	17	80	368	89	58	15	74%	3.5	24.2%	15.8%	8.4%	4.1%	4.86	5.50	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	8	85	383	84	53	12	32%	3.4	18.3%	13.3%	5.0%	3.4%	5.51	5.12	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	8	85	383	84	53	12	32%	3.4	18.3%	13.3%	5.0%	3.4%	5.51	5.12	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	8	85	383	84	53	12	32%	3.4	21.9%	13.8%	8.1%	3.1%	5.51	4.83	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	2	24	110	25	15	1	11%	1.3	20.5%	12.1%	8.4%	1.7%	4.56	3.85	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	2	24	110	25	15	1	11%	1.3	20.5%	12.1%	8.4%	1.7%	4.56	3.85	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	2	24	110	25	15	1	11%	1.3	22.7%	13.6%	9.1%	0.9%	4.56	3.44	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	10	0	14	62	18	8	4	0%	1.4	23.5%	14.2%	9.3%	7.7%	5.93	7.16	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	10	0	14	62	18	8	4	0%	1.4	23.5%	14.2%	9.3%	7.7%	5.93	7.16	—
2026	27	AA RAW	Chesapeake Baysox	10	0	14	62	18	8	4	0%	1.4	29.0%	12.9%	16.1%	6.5%	5.93	6.03	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	BAL	11	0	12	51	11	6	2	0%	1.1	20.9%	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	5.11	5.11	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	BAL	19	0	20	84	18	10	3	0%	1.1	20.9%	12.3%	8.6%	3.4%	5.11	5.16	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	BAL	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	20.9%	12.3%	8.6%	3.4%	5.11	5.16	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	20.9%	12.3%	8.6%	3.4%	5.11	4.78	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	96	32	0%	1.1	20.9%	12.3%	8.6%	3.4%	5.11	4.78	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		98	46	271	1220	251	190	44	47%	2.8	20.6%	15.6%	5.0%	3.6%	4.88	5.33	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	34	200	899	185	140	33	47%	2.8	20.6%	15.6%	5.0%	3.6%	4.88	5.33	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Tavera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	20.9%	12.4%	3.3%	—	5.16	20.9%	8.6%	20	+0.05	—	—	—
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	72
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	70
Jason García R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	28	SP-	4.76	17.7%	13.5%	2.6%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	356	69
Eddie Bonine R 2009 · 5.60 FIP	28	SW	5.60	13.1%	7.6%	4.8%	.306	4.54	8.6%	2.0%	68	-1.06	4.40	129	68
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	68
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	68
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	67
Jefry Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.4%	13.5%	3.4%	.287	4.58	19.8%	6.8%	64	-0.45	3.30	578	66
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	66
Todd Wellemeyer R 2007 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	17.0%	10.8%	3.1%	.270	4.86	15.5%	6.4%	373	+0.12	3.35	615	66
Jeff Manship R 2013 · 5.11 FIP	28	SW	5.11	12.9%	7.9%	3.8%	.298	3.57	20.0%	11.7%	137	-1.54	2.83	250	66
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	66
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	66
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	66
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	66
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	65
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	65
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	65
Cody Poteet R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	28	SW	4.79	18.4%	9.6%	3.7%	.244	3.73	21.1%	13.3%	68	-1.06	3.52	619	65
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	65