Walter Pennington

P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 29 LHP 6'2" / 205 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX2 levels	49	1	71	3.18	3.38	25.5%	11.9%	—	K 21.3% · BB 10.8% · FIP 3.91
2024	26	MIX2 levels	55	3	81	2.32	2.96	29.2%	9.4%	1.5	K 25.8% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.34
2025	27	MIX3 levels	18	1	22	4.15	2.41	28.1%	13.5%	—	K 22.7% · BB 10.3% · FIP 2.49
2027PROJ	29	MLBBAL	18	0	19	4.23	4.17	24.2%	9.5%	0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBBAL	6	0	6	4.33	4.39	23.4%	9.8%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.5 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

Whiff%58

K%36

xwOBA vs18

FB Velo10

CompsYuki Matsui (age 28) · Raul Valdes (age 32) · Ryan O'Rourke (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 96104vR 112

ERA4.23

FIP4.17

K%24.2%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%14.7%

Proj IP19

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.6

Whiff%

p5826.5%

p3620.2%

xwOBA vs

p180.350

FB+1.5 (33%)

SI (30%)

CT-0.8 (26%)

SL-2.3 (41%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	43	185	40	14	3	0%	1.7	16.0%	9.0%	7.0%	1.2%	3.32	3.56	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	43	185	40	14	3	0%	1.7	21.6%	7.6%	14.1%	1.6%	3.32	3.12	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	1	68	298	61	26	4	3%	1.9	15.1%	9.9%	5.2%	1.9%	5.19	4.12	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	1	68	298	61	26	4	3%	1.9	20.5%	8.7%	11.7%	1.3%	5.19	3.22	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	1	71	294	75	35	5	2%	1.4	21.3%	10.8%	10.5%	2.3%	3.18	3.91	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	1	71	294	75	35	5	2%	1.4	25.5%	11.9%	13.6%	1.7%	3.18	3.38	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	3	81	339	99	32	7	5%	1.5	25.8%	8.8%	17.0%	2.4%	2.32	3.34	+1.2
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	3	81	339	99	32	7	5%	1.5	25.8%	8.8%	17.0%	2.4%	2.32	3.34	+1.2
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	3	81	339	99	32	7	5%	1.5	29.2%	9.4%	19.8%	2.1%	2.32	2.96	+1.5
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	1	22	96	27	13	0	6%	1.2	22.7%	10.3%	12.4%	0.0%	4.15	2.49	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	1	22	96	27	13	0	6%	1.2	22.7%	10.3%	12.4%	0.0%	4.15	2.49	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	1	22	96	27	13	0	6%	1.2	28.1%	13.5%	14.6%	0.0%	4.15	2.41	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			16	1	18	84	17	11	1	6%	1.1	20.2%	13.1%	7.1%	1.2%	3.00	3.77	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	BAL	18	0	19	80	19	8	2	0%	1.1	24.2%	9.5%	14.7%	2.8%	4.23	4.17	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	BAL	19	0	20	84	20	8	3	0%	1.1	23.4%	9.8%	13.7%	3.0%	4.33	4.39	+0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	BAL	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	9.8%	13.7%	3.0%	4.33	4.39	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		22	1	24	110	23	14	2	5%	1.1	21.0%	12.3%	8.7%	1.6%	3.34	3.78	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		181	8	200	910	190	115	16	5%	1.1	21.0%	12.3%	8.7%	1.6%	3.34	3.78	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		183	6	285	1212	246	117	23	3%	1.6	20.3%	9.7%	10.6%	1.9%	3.51	3.63	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		129	4	200	852	173	82	16	3%	1.6	20.3%	9.7%	10.6%	1.9%	3.51	3.63	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Walter Pennington (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.17	24.2%	9.5%	2.8%	—	4.39	23.4%	13.7%	20	+0.22	—	—	—
Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	26.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	4.25	23.9%	12.6%	140	+0.62	3.63	203	77
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	73
Ryan O'Rourke L 2016 · 3.05 FIP	28	SU	3.05	23.4%	6.7%	1.9%	.284	4.08	22.1%	7.8%	56	+1.03	3.05	145	73
Tyler Olson L 2019 · 3.86 FIP	29	SU	3.86	20.0%	10.0%	2.1%	.326	3.96	21.6%	12.9%	31	+0.10	3.15	263	73
Clay Rapada L 2011 · 4.34 FIP	30	SU	4.34	26.1%	10.1%	3.9%	.268	3.00	24.5%	14.2%	38	-1.34	3.00	120	72
Sammy Solís L 2018 · 4.39 FIP	29	SU	4.39	24.9%	9.6%	4.0%	.330	4.05	26.2%	17.3%	23	-0.34	2.51	190	72
Tyler Webb L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	29	SU	4.28	21.7%	9.0%	3.4%	.178	4.75	22.1%	8.2%	60	+0.47	3.10	337	72
Matt Thornton L 2006 · 3.43 FIP	29	SU	3.43	21.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.263	2.61	27.2%	20.5%	196	-0.82	1.71	663	71
Lucas Luetge L 2016 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	21.0%	10.8%	1.8%	.346	3.56	22.0%	14.2%	100	-0.09	2.53	508	70
Nick Hagadone L 2015 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	22.6%	8.9%	2.4%	.329	3.74	22.6%	13.3%	33	+0.09	2.97	141	70
Tony Sipp L 2012 · 4.57 FIP	29	SU	4.57	21.9%	9.4%	3.9%	.252	3.22	28.6%	20.4%	143	-1.35	2.22	504	70
Sean Gilmartin L 2019 · 4.21 FIP	29	SU	4.21	24.1%	8.9%	3.7%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	386	69
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	69
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	69
Scott Alexander L 2018 · 3.30 FIP	29	SU	3.30	20.9%	9.3%	1.4%	.290	4.64	13.3%	5.0%	45	+1.34	2.90	427	69
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	69
Buddy Boshers L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	29	SU	4.56	18.9%	8.0%	3.7%	.300	3.47	24.1%	15.6%	112	-1.09	2.76	239	69
Kyle Regnault L 2018 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	27.6%	9.7%	3.3%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	204	69
Josh Smoker L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	29	SU	3.66	22.1%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	6.58	14.2%	3.4%	14	+2.92	2.71	230	69
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	22.6%	10.8%	0.90	3.88
Ray Searage ('81-'90, 4 WAR*)	1.4	41	21.0%*	10.8%*	0.84*	3.70*
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Dave Geisel ('78-'85, 2 WAR*)	1.0	42	23.5%*	10.6%*	0.84*	4.12*
George Sherrill ('12)	1.6	46	22.9%	11.0%	0.80	3.77