Juan Zapata — OGILVIE

Juan Zapata P Lake County Captains

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 198 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 22 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%20.7%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	19	ROK MLE	DSL Indians/Brewers	17	2	34	158	29	12	3	12%	2.0	12.5%	9.5%	3.0%	2.7%	5.50	4.71	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	DSL Indians/Brewers	17	2	34	158	29	12	3	12%	2.0	18.4%	7.6%	10.8%	1.9%	5.50	3.60	—
2019	20	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Red	12	10	49	222	39	13	1	83%	4.1	11.9%	7.3%	4.6%	0.6%	4.93	3.36	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	AZL Indians Red	12	10	49	222	39	13	1	83%	4.1	17.6%	5.9%	11.7%	0.5%	4.93	2.57	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	14	78	345	47	23	4	82%	4.6	10.0%	7.3%	2.8%	1.7%	5.06	4.10	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	14	78	345	47	23	4	82%	4.6	13.6%	6.7%	7.0%	1.2%	5.06	3.44	—
2022	23	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	23	10	81	343	66	23	2	43%	3.5	14.2%	7.9%	6.3%	0.7%	3.76	3.31	—
2022	23	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	23	10	81	343	66	23	2	43%	3.5	19.2%	6.7%	12.5%	0.6%	3.76	2.65	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	5	79	338	60	19	14	18%	2.8	14.8%	5.5%	9.3%	5.3%	4.23	5.44	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	28	5	79	338	60	19	14	18%	2.8	17.8%	5.6%	12.1%	4.1%	4.23	4.61	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	5	42	210	35	30	9	23%	1.9	13.5%	15.9%	-2.4%	4.5%	7.29	6.43	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	5	42	210	35	30	9	23%	1.9	13.5%	15.9%	-2.4%	4.5%	7.29	6.43	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	5	42	210	35	30	9	23%	1.9	16.7%	14.3%	2.4%	4.3%	7.29	6.36	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	CLE	21	0	22	93	19	11	3	0%	1.0	20.7%	11.9%	8.8%	3.0%	4.90	4.90	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CLE	20	0	21	88	18	10	3	0%	1.0	20.7%	11.8%	8.9%	3.2%	4.92	4.97	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	CLE	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	20.7%	11.8%	8.9%	3.2%	4.92	4.97	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	27	6	3	1	0%	1.0	20.7%	11.8%	8.9%	3.2%	4.92	4.59	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	95	32	0%	1.1	20.7%	11.8%	8.9%	3.2%	4.92	4.59	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		119	46	364	1616	208	136	41	39%	3.1	12.9%	8.4%	4.5%	2.5%	4.87	4.47	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	25	200	888	114	74	23	39%	3.1	12.9%	8.4%	4.5%	2.5%	4.87	4.47	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Zapata (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	20.7%	11.9%	3.0%	—	4.97	20.7%	8.9%	21	+0.07	—	—	—
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	74
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	71
Eddie Bonine R 2009 · 5.60 FIP	28	SW	5.60	13.1%	7.6%	4.8%	.306	4.54	8.6%	2.0%	68	-1.06	4.40	129	70
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	70
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	70
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	70
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	70
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	69
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	69
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	69
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	68
Jason García R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	28	SP-	4.76	17.7%	13.5%	2.6%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	356	68
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	68
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	68
Todd Wellemeyer R 2007 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	17.0%	10.8%	3.1%	.270	4.86	15.5%	6.4%	373	+0.12	3.35	615	68
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	67
Jeff Manship R 2013 · 5.11 FIP	28	SW	5.11	12.9%	7.9%	3.8%	.298	3.57	20.0%	11.7%	137	-1.54	2.83	250	67
Jefry Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.4%	13.5%	3.4%	.287	4.58	19.8%	6.8%	64	-0.45	3.30	578	67
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	67
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	67