Juan Zapata
P
Lake County Captains
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 198 lbs
A+
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125115vR 106
ERA4.66
FIP4.66
K%21.4%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%11.4%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | DSL Indians/Brewers | 17 | 2 | 34 | 158 | 29 | 12 | 3 | 12% | 2.0 | 12.5% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 5.50 | 4.71 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | DSL Indians/Brewers | 17 | 2 | 34 | 158 | 29 | 12 | 3 | 12% | 2.0 | 18.4% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 1.9% | 5.50 | 3.60 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | AZL Indians Red | 12 | 10 | 49 | 222 | 39 | 13 | 1 | 83% | 4.1 | 11.9% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 0.6% | 4.93 | 3.36 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | ROK | AZL Indians Red | 12 | 10 | 49 | 222 | 39 | 13 | 1 | 83% | 4.1 | 17.6% | 5.9% | 11.7% | 0.5% | 4.93 | 2.57 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 14 | 78 | 345 | 47 | 23 | 4 | 82% | 4.6 | 10.0% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 5.06 | 4.15 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 14 | 78 | 345 | 47 | 23 | 4 | 82% | 4.6 | 13.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 1.2% | 5.06 | 3.44 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 23 | 10 | 81 | 343 | 66 | 23 | 2 | 43% | 3.5 | 14.2% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 0.7% | 3.76 | 3.30 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 23 | 10 | 81 | 343 | 66 | 23 | 2 | 43% | 3.5 | 19.2% | 6.7% | 12.5% | 0.6% | 3.76 | 2.65 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 28 | 5 | 79 | 338 | 60 | 19 | 14 | 18% | 2.8 | 14.8% | 5.5% | 9.3% | 5.0% | 4.23 | 5.30 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 28 | 5 | 79 | 338 | 60 | 19 | 14 | 18% | 2.8 | 17.8% | 5.6% | 12.1% | 4.1% | 4.23 | 4.61 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 5 | 42 | 210 | 35 | 30 | 9 | 23% | 1.9 | 13.5% | 15.9% | -2.4% | 3.9% | 7.29 | 6.09 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 5 | 42 | 210 | 35 | 30 | 9 | 23% | 1.9 | 16.7% | 14.3% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 7.29 | 6.36 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 26 | 0 | 27 | 113 | 24 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 4.66 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 24 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.33 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 189 | 84 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 119 | 46 | 364 | 1616 | 208 | 136 | 39 | 39% | 3.1 | 12.9% | 8.4% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 4.87 | 4.41 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 65 | 25 | 200 | 888 | 114 | 74 | 22 | 39% | 3.1 | 12.9% | 8.4% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 4.87 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Zapata (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 3.1% | — | 4.71 | 21.4% | 11.4% | 26 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 76 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 76 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 75 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 75 |
| Andres Santiago R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .384 | 5.45 | 13.1% | 3.2% | 159 | +1.18 | 3.74 | 291 | 74 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 74 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 74 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 73 |
| Colby Morris R 2024 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 72 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 72 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 71 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 71 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.87 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .368 | 4.57 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 148 | +0.70 | 3.64 | 560 | 71 |
| Derek Gordon R 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 71 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 70 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 70 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.79 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 1.7% | .251 | 4.85 | 16.0% | 6.7% | 234 | +1.06 | 3.76 | 399 | 70 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 70 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 70 |
| Ben Lively R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.82 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 4.2% | .312 | 3.15 | 20.9% | 12.1% | 77 | -1.67 | 3.15 | 1,049 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 1.23 | 4.66 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |