Josan Méndez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Josan Méndez P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 29 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

K%20.2%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%11.5%

ROS IP29

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	14	9	55	232	42	6	1	64%	3.9	12.3%	3.2%	9.1%	0.6%	3.93	2.80	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	14	9	55	232	42	6	1	64%	3.9	18.1%	2.6%	15.5%	0.4%	3.93	2.14	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	14	6	50	202	42	11	2	43%	3.6	14.1%	6.8%	7.3%	1.4%	2.68	3.53	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	14	6	50	202	42	11	2	43%	3.6	20.8%	5.4%	15.3%	1.0%	2.68	2.60	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	31	122	31	6	2	0%	1.7	19.3%	8.0%	11.3%	3.3%	1.44	4.31	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	31	122	31	6	2	0%	1.7	25.4%	4.9%	20.5%	1.6%	1.44	2.53	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	53	225	37	11	2	0%	1.6	12.2%	5.7%	6.5%	1.4%	2.73	3.56	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	53	225	37	11	2	0%	1.6	16.4%	4.9%	11.6%	0.9%	2.73	2.82	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	51	223	42	17	6	0%	1.5	15.4%	8.1%	7.2%	3.1%	4.24	4.51	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	51	223	42	17	6	0%	1.5	15.4%	8.1%	7.2%	3.1%	4.24	4.51	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	51	223	42	17	6	0%	1.5	18.8%	7.6%	11.2%	2.7%	4.24	3.98	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	3	0	4	19	0	0	0	0%	1.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	17.18	3.10	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	3	0	4	19	0	0	0	0%	1.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	17.18	3.10	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	3	0	4	19	0	0	0	0%	1.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	17.18	3.10	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.2%	8.8%	11.5%	3.0%	4.53	4.53	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIA	27	0	29	122	25	11	4	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.9%	11.7%	3.1%	4.53	4.54	+0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIA	10	0	11	46	10	4	1	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.9%	11.7%	3.1%	4.53	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	46	9	4	1	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.9%	11.7%	3.1%	4.53	4.16	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	166	74	18	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.9%	11.7%	3.1%	4.53	4.16	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		117	15	244	1023	142	62	18	13%	2.1	13.9%	6.1%	7.9%	1.8%	3.36	3.67	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		96	12	200	839	117	51	15	13%	2.1	13.9%	6.1%	7.9%	1.8%	3.36	3.67	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josan Méndez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	20.2%	8.8%	3.0%	—	4.54	20.5%	11.7%	29	+0.01	—	—	—
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	84
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	83
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	83
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	83
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	318	82
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	82
Jon Rauch R 2005 · 3.78 FIP	26	SU	3.78	18.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.236	3.67	21.6%	15.8%	250	-0.11	2.87	595	82
Troy Neiman R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	26	SU	4.03	18.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	199	82
Guillermo Moscoso R 2009 · 3.56 FIP	25	SU	3.56	18.8%	9.4%	1.6%	.311	4.33	15.8%	8.5%	178	+0.77	3.56	486	81
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	81
Ryan Halstead R 2018 · 4.08 FIP	26	SU	4.08	18.0%	6.7%	3.0%	.296	3.24	16.1%	8.7%	64	-0.84	3.12	222	81
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	81
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	81
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	81
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	81
Spencer Stockton R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	26	SU	4.18	20.2%	10.3%	2.7%	.276	5.45	18.9%	6.4%	63	+1.27	1.93	233	81
Cristhian Martinez R 2009 · 3.51 FIP	27	SU	3.51	16.1%	6.2%	1.8%	.294	3.46	19.8%	14.7%	177	-0.05	3.09	204	81
Cole Johnson R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	26	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.4%	1.5%	.311	3.61	14.0%	9.2%	49	+0.09	3.52	101	81
Kyle Martin R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	18.3%	10.0%	2.9%	.304	3.22	23.0%	10.0%	51	-1.19	3.01	214	80
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	20.4%	8.8%	1.17	4.53
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Randy Flores ('10)	1.2	42	17.7%	9.3%	1.04	4.61
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65