Brayan Bello
P
Boston Red Sox
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 2.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION84 act + 84 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126116vR 107
ERA3.96
FIP4.03
K%18.8%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%10.8%
ROS IP84
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 168 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5294.7
Whiff%
p4724.9%
K%
p1216.6%
xwOBA vs
p100.373
SL (12%)
SI (42%)
CU (6%)
CT-0.5 (16%)
CH-1.1 (18%)
FB-3.9 (48%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 14 | 13 | 67 | 253 | 74 | 10 | 0 | 93% | 4.8 | 19.9% | 4.9% | 14.9% | 0.0% | 1.60 | 2.05 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 14 | 13 | 67 | 253 | 74 | 10 | 0 | 93% | 4.8 | 29.2% | 4.0% | 25.3% | 0.0% | 1.60 | 1.35 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Greenville Drive | 25 | 25 | 118 | 526 | 119 | 38 | 9 | 100% | 4.7 | 16.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 1.9% | 5.43 | 3.80 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Greenville Drive | 25 | 25 | 118 | 526 | 119 | 38 | 9 | 100% | 4.7 | 22.6% | 7.2% | 15.4% | 1.7% | 5.43 | 3.04 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 95 | 402 | 132 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 4.5 | 26.1% | 8.6% | 17.6% | 3.1% | 3.87 | 3.66 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 95 | 402 | 132 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 4.5 | 32.8% | 7.7% | 25.1% | 2.0% | 3.87 | 2.40 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 28 | 153 | 650 | 184 | 62 | 7 | 90% | 4.9 | 25.4% | 9.9% | 15.5% | 1.3% | 3.23 | 2.91 | +4.5 |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 28 | 153 | 650 | 184 | 62 | 7 | 90% | 4.9 | 28.3% | 9.5% | 18.8% | 1.1% | 3.23 | 2.51 | +5.2 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 163 | 690 | 136 | 45 | 25 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.8% | 6.7% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 4.14 | 4.24 | +2.2 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 163 | 690 | 136 | 45 | 25 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.7% | 6.5% | 13.2% | 3.6% | 4.14 | 4.25 | +2.2 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 165 | 717 | 158 | 66 | 20 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.8% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 3.89 | +2.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 165 | 717 | 158 | 66 | 20 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.0% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 3.96 | +2.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 33 | 32 | 181 | 764 | 145 | 63 | 17 | 97% | 5.5 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 2.3% | 3.64 | 3.91 | +3.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 33 | 32 | 181 | 764 | 145 | 63 | 17 | 97% | 5.5 | 19.0% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 2.2% | 3.64 | 3.76 | +3.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 17 | 12 | 84 | 378 | 71 | 28 | 11 | 71% | 4.9 | 18.1% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 5.68 | 4.12 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 84 | 356 | 67 | 29 | 10 | 100% | 7.0 | 18.8% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 4.03 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 84 | 355 | 67 | 29 | 10 | 100% | 7.0 | 18.8% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 4.03 | +1.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 168 | 734 | 138 | 57 | 21 | — | — | 18.8% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.82 | 4.07 | +2.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 150 | 632 | 138 | 57 | 21 | — | — | 21.8% | 9.0% | 12.9% | 3.3% | 5.42 | 4.19 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 27 | 27 | 164 | 695 | 125 | 59 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.1% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.75 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 26 | 26 | 157 | 663 | 116 | 58 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.5% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.82 | 4.91 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 27 | 27 | 164 | 692 | 125 | 59 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.1% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.69 | 4.76 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 26 | 26 | 157 | 663 | 116 | 58 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.5% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.83 | 4.92 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 179 | 171 | 1015 | 4348 | 821 | 363 | 124 | 96% | 5.7 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.13 | +15.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 34 | 200 | 857 | 162 | 72 | 24 | 96% | 5.7 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 201 | 191 | 1026 | 4380 | 905 | 361 | 103 | 95% | 5.1 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 12.4% | 2.3% | 4.06 | 3.68 | +20.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 37 | 200 | 854 | 176 | 70 | 20 | 95% | 5.1 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 12.4% | 2.3% | 4.06 | 3.68 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brayan Bello (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 19.8% | 8.5% | 2.6% | — | 4.83 | 17.8% | 9.2% | 322 | +0.50 | — | — | — |
| Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.49 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.6% | .282 | 4.42 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 206 | +0.93 | 3.49 | 355 | 46 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.86 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.60 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 451 | +0.74 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 46 |
| Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.61 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.61 | 278 | 46 |
| Nate Long R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 45 |
| Chris Tillman R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.19 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .290 | 4.90 | 16.2% | 5.9% | 316 | +0.71 | 3.95 | 489 | 45 |
| Jimmy Nelson R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.72 | 17.3% | 10.4% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.26 | 27.2% | 18.6% | 238 | -1.46 | 1.32 | 650 | 45 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.77 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.61 | 15.0% | 5.7% | 452 | +0.84 | 3.77 | 786 | 45 |
| Tom Koehler R 2028 · 4.42 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.42 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 2.9% | .279 | 4.51 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 287 | +0.09 | 4.39 | 474 | 45 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 45 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .343 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | +0.40 | 3.26 | 493 | 45 |
| Nate Karns R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.03 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 4.09 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 140 | +0.06 | 3.92 | 287 | 45 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.02 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .306 | 4.58 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.56 | 4.02 | 203 | 45 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.43 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 4.9% | .287 | 3.97 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 277 | -1.46 | 3.23 | 622 | 45 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2024 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.37 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 195 | 44 |
| Manuel Flores R 2028 · 4.14 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.14 | 13.8% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .317 | 3.61 | 14.4% | 9.2% | 263 | -0.53 | 3.55 | 515 | 44 |
| Mario Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.60 | 12.6% | 6.0% | 3.3% | .302 | 4.01 | 16.2% | 10.8% | 233 | -0.59 | 3.86 | 368 | 44 |
| Joe Wieland R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 44 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 44 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 44 |
| Mike Foltynewicz R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.21 | 20.4% | 7.5% | 3.4% | .278 | 5.68 | 16.6% | 10.5% | 139 | +1.47 | 3.17 | 938 | 44 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 162 | 18.5% | 8.6% | 1.16 | 4.58 |
| Miguel González ('17) | 3 | 145 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 1.18 | 4.44 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |
| Jaime García ('18) | 4 | 135 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 1.05 | 4.23 |
| Edinson Volquez ('17) | 3 | 161 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 0.88 | 4.39 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| R.A. Dickey ('17) | 3 | 191 | 16.0% | 7.9% | 1.24 | 4.19 |