Brayan Bello
P
Boston Red Sox
+1.7
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.7 · 2026
ERA4.23
FIP4.38
xFIP5.01
SIERA5.30
K%19.5%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%10.9%
IP164
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.7peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p3293.2
Whiff%
p9033.3%
K%
p1014.1%
xwOBA vs
p100.400
SL (9%)
SI (44%)
CU (8%)
CT-0.5 (20%)
CH-1.1 (12%)
FB-3.9 (50%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 14 | 13 | 67 | 253 | 74 | 10 | 0 | 19.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | 1.60 | 2.05 | +2.3 |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Greenville Drive | 25 | 25 | 118 | 526 | 119 | 38 | 9 | 16.7% | 8.5% | 2.0% | 5.43 | 3.88 | +1.9 |
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 21 | 21 | 95 | 402 | 132 | 31 | 8 | 26.1% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 3.87 | 3.51 | +1.9 |
| 2022 | 23 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 31 | 28 | 153 | 650 | 184 | 62 | 7 | 25.4% | 9.9% | 1.2% | 3.23 | 2.89 | +4.2 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 29 | 29 | 163 | 690 | 136 | 45 | 25 | 19.8% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 4.14 | 4.46 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 31 | 31 | 165 | 717 | 158 | 66 | 20 | 21.8% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 3.98 | +2.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 33 | 32 | 181 | 764 | 145 | 63 | 17 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 3.64 | 3.90 | +2.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 3 | 3 | 15 | 72 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 12.5% | 12.5% | 2.8% | 6.14 | 5.15 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BOS | 25 | 25 | 138 | 584 | 109 | 53 | 16 | 18.7% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.11 | 4.16 | +1.8 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 153 | 656 | 118 | 62 | 18 | 18.0% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 4.26 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 26 | 26 | 142 | 600 | 110 | 56 | 16 | 18.4% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.57 | 4.60 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 24 | 129 | 546 | 98 | 51 | 15 | 17.9% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.67 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 21 | 21 | 117 | 492 | 86 | 47 | 14 | 17.4% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.71 | 4.76 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 19 | 19 | 105 | 442 | 74 | 42 | 13 | 16.8% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.81 | 4.87 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 17 | 17 | 93 | 394 | 64 | 38 | 12 | 16.2% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 4.99 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 15 | 15 | 83 | 350 | 54 | 35 | 11 | 15.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 5.04 | 5.11 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 52 | 29 | 10 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 5.00 | 4.98 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 44 | 26 | 9 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 5.08 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 36 | 23 | 8 | 15.3% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 5.21 | 5.30 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 187 | 182 | 957 | 4074 | 846 | 341 | 97 | 20.8% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 3.95 | 3.71 | +17.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 38 | 200 | 851 | 177 | 71 | 20 | 20.8% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 3.95 | 3.71 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brayan Bello (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 20.6% | 8.5% | 2.7% | — | 4.67 | 17.9% | 8.6% | 388 | +0.37 | — | — | — |
| Nate Long R 2028 · 4.69 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.69 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 151 | 47 |
| Greg Peavey R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.37 | 11.2% | 6.5% | 2.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 147 | 46 |
| Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.69 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 3.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 278 | 46 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.79 | 14.6% | 9.8% | 1.2% | .277 | 4.94 | 14.9% | 5.0% | 55 | +1.15 | 3.79 | 254 | 46 |
| Kyle Drabek R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.93 | 12.8% | 9.6% | 1.2% | .271 | 4.17 | 11.3% | 0.7% | 69 | +0.24 | 3.93 | 206 | 46 |
| Brandon Sinnery R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.75 | 11.0% | 6.9% | 3.1% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 154 | 46 |
| Mario Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.36 | 12.6% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.12 | 16.2% | 10.8% | 233 | -0.24 | 3.93 | 368 | 46 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.53 | 19.0% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 4.56 | 20.6% | 5.2% | 199 | +0.03 | 3.32 | 537 | 46 |
| Manuel Flores R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.00 | 13.8% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .317 | 3.58 | 14.4% | 9.2% | 263 | -0.42 | 3.48 | 515 | 46 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.42 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .282 | 4.34 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 206 | +0.92 | 3.42 | 355 | 46 |
| Jimmy Nelson R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.62 | 17.3% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .289 | 3.17 | 27.2% | 18.6% | 238 | -1.45 | 1.32 | 650 | 45 |
| Jhoulys Chacín R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.85 | 15.2% | 8.8% | 1.7% | .278 | 3.79 | 19.5% | 11.0% | 517 | -0.06 | 3.68 | 887 | 45 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.07 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 3.1% | .296 | 4.40 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 451 | +0.33 | 3.30 | 1,146 | 45 |
| Tom Koehler R 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.43 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 2.9% | .279 | 4.50 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 287 | +0.07 | 4.37 | 474 | 45 |
| Chris Tillman R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.14 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.94 | 16.2% | 5.9% | 316 | +0.80 | 4.04 | 489 | 45 |
| Toru Murata R 2029 · 4.02 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.02 | 13.3% | 6.9% | 2.1% | .261 | 3.63 | 12.9% | 7.2% | 102 | -0.39 | 3.63 | 267 | 44 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.27 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 4.6% | .287 | 4.12 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 277 | -1.15 | 3.50 | 622 | 44 |
| Thad Weber R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.64 | 13.7% | 6.4% | 3.5% | .293 | 4.59 | 11.2% | 5.7% | 202 | -0.05 | 4.36 | 363 | 44 |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.91 | 15.3% | 8.6% | 1.8% | .302 | 4.74 | 15.8% | 5.6% | 393 | +0.83 | 3.91 | 577 | 44 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.64 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 1.3% | .286 | 4.84 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 249 | +1.20 | 3.64 | 605 | 44 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-2
MLB Debut 2022
Service 4.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2031
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-2 | $6M | +1.7 | $14M | +$7M |
| 2027 | Arb-3 | $9M | +1.1 | $9M | +$0.4M |
| 2028 | Ext / FA-deal | $16M | +0.9 | $4M | -$12M |
| 2029 | Ext / FA-deal | $19M | +0.7 | $3M | -$16M |
| 2030 | Ext / FA-deal | $21M | +0.5 | $2M | -$19M |
| Totals | $71M | $32M | -$39M | ||
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$39M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$39M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.