Brayan Bello

P Boston Red Sox

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.4 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANExtFA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	31	31	165	4.53	3.96	22.0%	9.2%	2.8	K 21.8% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.94
2025	26	MIX3 levels	33	32	181	3.64	3.76	19.0%	8.2%	3.6	K 17.7% · BB 8.4% · FIP 3.96
2026	27	MIX2 levels	30	15	135	4.33	3.41	19.5%	6.5%	3.3	K 19.0% · BB 6.4% · FIP 3.47
2027PROJ	28	MLBBOS	16	16	94	4.18	4.15	19.5%	7.5%	1.4
2028PROJ	29	MLBBOS	13	13	80	4.22	4.27	18.9%	7.8%	1.0
2029PROJ	30	MLBBOS	11	11	65	4.37	4.47	18.2%	8.1%	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 9.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service4.349First FA2029Options2

2027Ext$9M2028Ext$9M2029Ext$9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo68

xwOBA vs29

K%23

Form3.12 ERA (proj 4.18) · K 22.2% (proj 19.5%) · BB 5.6% (proj 7.5%) ▲ last 60d · 26 IP through Oct 27

CompsDavid Phelps (age 28) · Chase Anderson (age 28) · Bud Norris (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 99

ERA4.18

FIP4.15

K%19.5%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%12.0%

Proj IP94

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$3M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p4724.8%

p2318.3%

xwOBA vs

p290.337

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.349 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2029

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$9M	+1.4	$11M	+$2M
2028	Ext	$9M	+1.0	$7M	-$0.8M
2029	Ext	$9M	+0.7	$2M	-$5M
Totals		$28M		$21M	-$4M

Options · projected decision
2030	CLUB OPT	$9.2M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2031	CLUB OPT	$21.0M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	14	13	67	253	74	10	0	93%	4.8	19.9%	4.9%	14.9%	0.0%	1.60	2.05	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	14	13	67	253	74	10	0	93%	4.8	29.2%	4.0%	25.3%	0.0%	1.60	1.35	—
2019	20	A MLE	Greenville Drive	25	25	118	526	119	38	9	100%	4.7	16.7%	8.5%	8.2%	2.0%	5.43	3.89	—
2019	20	A RAW	Greenville Drive	25	25	118	526	119	38	9	100%	4.7	22.6%	7.2%	15.4%	1.7%	5.43	3.04	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	95	402	132	31	8	100%	4.5	26.1%	8.6%	17.6%	2.7%	3.87	3.46	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	95	402	132	31	8	100%	4.5	32.8%	7.7%	25.1%	2.0%	3.87	2.40	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	28	153	650	184	62	7	90%	4.9	25.4%	9.9%	15.5%	1.2%	3.23	2.90	+4.8
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	28	153	650	184	62	7	90%	4.9	28.3%	9.5%	18.8%	1.1%	3.23	2.51	+5.7
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	163	690	136	45	25	100%	5.6	19.8%	6.7%	13.0%	3.7%	4.14	4.31	+2.1
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	163	690	136	45	25	100%	5.6	19.7%	6.5%	13.2%	3.6%	4.14	4.25	+2.2
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	165	717	158	66	20	100%	5.3	21.8%	9.1%	12.7%	2.8%	4.53	3.94	+2.9
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	165	717	158	66	20	100%	5.3	21.8%	9.1%	12.7%	2.8%	4.53	3.94	+2.9
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	165	717	158	66	20	100%	5.3	22.0%	9.2%	12.8%	2.8%	4.53	3.96	+2.8
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	32	181	764	145	63	17	97%	5.5	17.7%	8.4%	9.3%	2.3%	3.64	3.96	+3.1
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	32	181	764	145	63	17	97%	5.5	17.7%	8.4%	9.3%	2.3%	3.64	3.96	+3.1
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	32	181	764	145	63	17	97%	5.5	19.0%	8.2%	10.7%	2.2%	3.64	3.76	+3.6
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	15	135	585	114	38	12	50%	4.5	19.0%	6.4%	12.5%	2.1%	4.33	3.47	+3.2
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	15	135	585	114	38	12	50%	4.5	19.0%	6.4%	12.5%	2.1%	4.33	3.47	+3.2
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	15	135	585	114	38	12	50%	4.5	19.5%	6.5%	13.0%	2.1%	4.33	3.41	+3.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			126	108	660	2841	556	228	72	86%	5.2	19.6%	8.0%	11.5%	2.5%	4.13	3.87	+12.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	BOS	16	16	94	397	77	30	10	100%	5.9	19.5%	7.5%	12.0%	2.5%	4.18	4.15	+1.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	80	339	64	26	9	100%	6.2	18.9%	7.8%	11.2%	2.6%	4.26	4.31	+1.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	65	274	50	22	8	100%	5.9	18.2%	8.1%	10.1%	2.8%	4.41	4.51	+0.7
2030	31	MLB MLE	BOS	8	8	51	214	37	18	7	100%	6.3	17.4%	8.4%	9.0%	3.1%	4.61	4.75	+0.4
2031	32	MLB MLE	BOS	6	6	37	155	26	14	5	100%	6.1	16.7%	8.8%	7.9%	3.3%	4.84	5.00	+0.2
2032	33	MLB MLE	BOS	4	4	25	104	16	10	4	100%	6.2	15.8%	9.2%	6.6%	3.6%	5.10	5.28	+0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	80	338	64	26	9	100%	6.2	18.9%	7.8%	11.2%	2.6%	4.22	4.27	+1.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	65	274	50	22	8	100%	5.9	18.2%	8.1%	10.1%	2.8%	4.37	4.47	+0.7
2030	31	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	51	215	38	18	6	100%	6.4	17.4%	8.4%	9.0%	3.0%	4.57	4.71	+0.4
2031	32	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	37	156	26	14	5	100%	6.2	16.7%	8.8%	7.9%	3.2%	4.79	4.95	+0.2
2032	33	MLB CTX	BOS	4	4	25	106	17	10	4	100%	6.2	15.8%	9.2%	6.6%	3.5%	5.05	5.23	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	151	917	3928	750	318	103	89%	5.4	19.1%	8.1%	11.0%	2.6%	4.23	3.96	+15.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	33	200	857	164	69	22	89%	5.4	19.1%	8.1%	11.0%	2.6%	4.23	3.96	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		214	194	1077	4587	948	370	105	91%	5.0	20.7%	8.1%	12.6%	2.3%	3.97	3.64	+14.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	36	200	852	176	69	20	91%	5.0	20.7%	8.1%	12.6%	2.3%	3.97	3.64	+3.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 19 IPFIP 1.45 → 1.71 (+0.26)K% 26.8% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.83%	—	×0.860	23.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.88%	—	×0.900	4.39%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.45 → 1.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 10 IPFIP 1.28 → 1.57 (+0.29)K% 31.8% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.82%	—	×0.860	27.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.82%	—	×0.900	6.14%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.984	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.28 → 1.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 4 IPFIP 3.52 → 4.35 (+0.82)K% 35.0% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.00%	—	×0.810	28.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.00%	—	×1.100	5.50%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷1.119	×1.200	5.36%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 3.52 → 4.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 6 IPFIP 4.06 → 4.50 (+0.44)K% 18.2% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.860	15.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×0.900	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.008	×1.100	4.96%

Result: FIP 4.06 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 59 IPFIP 2.20 → 2.73 (+0.52)K% 33.8% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.75%	—	×0.880	29.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.050	10.50%
HR / BF /BF	1.25%	÷0.939	×1.100	1.46%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 2.20 → 2.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 37 IPFIP 2.48 → 3.35 (+0.88)K% 33.8% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.80%	—	×0.810	27.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.45%	—	×1.100	9.30%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷1.004	×1.200	2.52%

Result: FIP 2.48 → 3.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 64 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.48 (+0.93)K% 31.1% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.07%	—	×0.810	25.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.57%	—	×1.100	9.43%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷0.900	×1.200	2.38%

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Greenville Drive · 32 IPFIP 2.06 → 3.43 (+1.37)K% 36.9% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.89%	—	×0.770	28.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.74%	—	×1.150	6.60%
HR / BF /BF	2.46%	÷0.891	×1.250	3.45%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 2.06 → 3.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brayan Bello (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.5%	—	4.49	18.3%	10.3%	196	+0.34	—	—	—
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	672	76
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	71
Bud Norris R 2013 · 3.68 FIP	28	SP	3.68	19.0%	8.7%	2.0%	.330	4.05	20.0%	11.9%	361	+0.37	3.51	1,221	69
Jeff Niemann R 2011 · 4.12 FIP	28	SP	4.12	18.4%	6.3%	3.2%	.274	2.96	21.8%	14.1%	38	-1.16	2.96	544	67
Jason Johnson R 2002 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	17.3%	7.0%	3.4%	.300	4.27	12.9%	6.3%	596	-0.11	4.12	1,351	66
Francisco Cordova R 2000 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	15.7%	8.1%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	754	65
Armando Galarraga R 2010 · 5.06 FIP	28	SP	5.06	12.0%	8.1%	3.5%	.258	6.67	14.1%	2.6%	67	+1.61	3.92	584	65
Claudio Vargas R 2006 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.5%	6.7%	3.6%	.289	4.48	17.2%	8.9%	213	-0.06	3.66	765	64
Mike Thurman R 2001 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	14.6%	6.5%	3.2%	.303	3.46	15.1%	7.9%	33	-0.99	3.46	482	64
Brandon Morrow R 2012 · 3.63 FIP	28	SP	3.63	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.251	4.35	18.4%	10.4%	121	+0.72	2.67	922	64
Ryan Rupe R 2002 · 4.03 FIP	27	SP	4.03	17.5%	6.5%	2.9%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	467	64
Brian Bannister R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP	3.97	14.7%	6.9%	2.2%	.287	5.42	13.3%	4.7%	128	+1.45	3.97	667	64
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	613	64
Kris Benson R 2003 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	14.3%	6.7%	2.9%	.313	4.46	13.4%	6.9%	558	+0.10	3.53	1,244	64
Jesse Hahn R 2017 · 3.66 FIP	28	SP	3.66	16.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.327	2.19	29.2%	16.9%	17	-1.47	2.19	499	63
Luke Hochevar R 2012 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	18.0%	7.2%	3.6%	.306	3.66	26.8%	19.3%	131	-0.84	3.04	940	63
Josh Fogg R 2005 · 4.85 FIP	28	SP-	4.85	11.5%	5.7%	3.6%	.287	4.77	12.4%	5.7%	416	-0.08	0.87	1,159	63
Jake Odorizzi R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	28	SP	3.91	22.8%	9.4%	2.8%	.284	3.73	24.3%	16.6%	277	-0.18	3.16	1,246	63
Randy Wells R 2011 · 5.10 FIP	28	SP	5.10	14.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.271	4.71	9.8%	-6.3%	29	-0.39	3.71	524	63
Daisuke Matsuzaka R 2009 · 4.73 FIP	28	SP	4.73	19.1%	10.2%	3.5%	.374	4.37	19.1%	8.0%	237	-0.36	3.77	790	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	92	19.1%	8.1%	1.02	4.24
Ron Robinson ('84-'92, 8 WAR*)	4.0	100	18.0%*	7.3%*	0.97*	3.99*
Travis Wood ('17)	5.0	124	18.9%	8.7%	1.09	4.26
Bob Shirley ('77-'87, 5 WAR*)	7.2	130	18.5%*	8.9%*	1.12*	4.43*
Garrett Richards ('22)	4.9	98	20.4%	8.7%	0.85	3.87
Wily Peralta ('22)	4.6	91	16.7%	9.1%	1.09	4.29
Don Aase ('77-'90, 12 WAR*)	5.5	92	20.7%*	9.6%*	0.94*	4.14*