Brayan Bello — OGILVIE

Brayan Bello P Boston Red Sox

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 2.0 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION121 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA3.85

FIP3.93

K%18.4%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 135 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5560

CTRL5055

CMD3540

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6295.4

Whiff%

p4224.2%

p1417.0%

xwOBA vs

p170.351

SL (12%)

SI (40%)

CU (4%)

CT-0.5 (16%)

CH-1.1 (20%)

FB-3.9 (48%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.477 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2029

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.7M	+0.1	$0.5M	-$0.3M
2027	Ext	$9M	+0.9	$3M	-$5M
2028	Ext	$9M	+0.6	$2M	-$5M
2029	Ext	$9M	+0.2	$0.6M	-$6M
Totals		$28M		$7M	-$17M

Options · projected decision
2030	CLUB OPT	$9.2M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2031	CLUB OPT	$21.0M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	14	13	67	253	74	10	0	93%	4.8	19.9%	4.9%	14.9%	0.0%	1.60	2.05	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	14	13	67	253	74	10	0	93%	4.8	29.2%	4.0%	25.3%	0.0%	1.60	1.35	—
2019	20	A MLE	Greenville Drive	25	25	118	526	119	38	9	100%	4.7	16.7%	8.5%	8.2%	2.0%	5.43	3.89	—
2019	20	A RAW	Greenville Drive	25	25	118	526	119	38	9	100%	4.7	22.6%	7.2%	15.4%	1.7%	5.43	3.04	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	95	402	132	31	8	100%	4.5	26.1%	8.6%	17.6%	2.7%	3.87	3.46	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	95	402	132	31	8	100%	4.5	32.8%	7.7%	25.1%	2.0%	3.87	2.40	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	28	153	650	184	62	7	90%	4.9	25.4%	9.9%	15.5%	1.2%	3.23	2.90	+3.8
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	28	153	650	184	62	7	90%	4.9	28.3%	9.5%	18.8%	1.1%	3.23	2.51	+4.7
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	163	690	136	45	25	100%	5.6	19.8%	6.7%	13.0%	3.7%	4.14	4.31	+1.1
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	163	690	136	45	25	100%	5.6	19.8%	6.7%	13.0%	3.7%	4.14	4.31	+1.1
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	163	690	136	45	25	100%	5.6	19.7%	6.5%	13.2%	3.6%	4.14	4.25	+1.2
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	165	717	158	66	20	100%	5.3	21.8%	9.1%	12.7%	2.8%	4.53	3.94	+1.9
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	165	717	158	66	20	100%	5.3	21.8%	9.1%	12.7%	2.8%	4.53	3.94	+1.9
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	165	717	158	66	20	100%	5.3	22.0%	9.2%	12.8%	2.8%	4.53	3.96	+1.8
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	32	181	764	145	63	17	97%	5.5	17.7%	8.4%	9.3%	2.3%	3.64	3.96	+2.0
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	32	181	764	145	63	17	97%	5.5	17.7%	8.4%	9.3%	2.3%	3.64	3.96	+2.0
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	32	181	764	145	63	17	97%	5.5	19.0%	8.2%	10.7%	2.2%	3.64	3.76	+2.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			123	106	646	2792	541	227	71	86%	5.3	19.4%	8.1%	11.2%	2.5%	4.21	3.91	+7.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	27	13	121	536	99	37	11	48%	4.5	17.8%	6.8%	10.9%	2.1%	4.75	3.62	+1.4
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	27	13	121	536	99	37	11	48%	4.5	17.8%	6.8%	10.9%	2.1%	4.75	3.62	+1.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	BOS	4	4	19	82	22	4	0	100%	4.7	26.8%	4.9%	22.0%	0.0%	4.34	1.45	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	BOS	23	9	103	454	77	33	11	39%	4.5	17.0%	7.3%	9.7%	2.4%	4.82	3.92	+0.8
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	BOS	23	9	103	454	77	33	11	39%	4.5	17.0%	7.3%	9.7%	2.4%	4.82	3.92	+0.8
ROS	27	MLB MLE	BOS	13	0	14	59	11	4	2	0%	1.1	18.4%	7.6%	10.8%	2.6%	3.85	3.93	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	BOS	13	0	14	59	11	4	1	0%	1.1	18.4%	7.6%	10.8%	2.5%	3.81	3.89	+0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	135	595	110	41	13	—	—	18.5%	7.0%	11.5%	2.1%	4.65	3.65	+2.0
FULL	27	MLB A+C	BOS	—	—	117	492	110	41	12	—	—	22.3%	8.4%	13.9%	2.5%	5.40	3.67	+1.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	BOS	27	27	164	695	125	55	19	100%	6.1	18.0%	8.0%	10.0%	2.7%	4.37	4.43	+0.9
2028	29	MLB MLE	BOS	26	26	157	663	115	54	19	100%	6.0	17.4%	8.2%	9.2%	2.8%	4.50	4.59	+0.6
2029	30	MLB MLE	BOS	25	25	148	624	104	53	19	100%	5.9	16.7%	8.5%	8.2%	3.0%	4.68	4.80	+0.2
2030	31	MLB MLE	BOS	23	23	138	581	93	51	19	100%	6.0	15.9%	8.8%	7.1%	3.2%	4.89	5.03	-0.2
2031	32	MLB MLE	BOS	21	21	127	538	81	50	19	100%	6.1	15.1%	9.2%	5.9%	3.5%	5.13	5.29	-0.6
2027	28	MLB CTX	BOS	27	27	164	692	124	55	18	100%	6.1	18.0%	8.0%	10.0%	2.6%	4.33	4.39	+0.9
2028	29	MLB CTX	BOS	26	26	157	663	115	54	18	100%	6.0	17.4%	8.2%	9.2%	2.7%	4.46	4.55	+0.6
2029	30	MLB CTX	BOS	25	25	148	625	104	53	18	100%	5.9	16.7%	8.5%	8.2%	2.9%	4.64	4.76	+0.2
2030	31	MLB CTX	BOS	23	23	138	583	93	52	18	100%	6.0	15.9%	8.8%	7.1%	3.2%	4.85	4.99	-0.2
2031	32	MLB CTX	BOS	21	21	127	536	81	50	18	100%	6.0	15.1%	9.2%	5.9%	3.4%	5.08	5.24	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		259	228	1394	5951	1070	495	164	88%	5.4	18.0%	8.3%	9.7%	2.8%	4.44	4.15	+12.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	33	200	854	153	71	24	88%	5.4	18.0%	8.3%	9.7%	2.8%	4.44	4.15	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		211	192	1064	4538	932	369	104	91%	5.0	20.5%	8.1%	12.4%	2.3%	4.01	3.66	+8.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	36	200	853	175	69	20	91%	5.0	20.5%	8.1%	12.4%	2.3%	4.01	3.66	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brayan Bello (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	19.8%	8.5%	2.7%	—	4.60	17.4%	9.2%	469	+0.24	—	—	—
Mike Foltynewicz R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	27	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.5%	3.4%	.278	5.53	16.6%	10.5%	139	+1.33	3.17	938	75
Kevin Gausman R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	27	SP	4.13	19.1%	6.3%	3.4%	.295	3.14	28.6%	22.3%	354	-0.99	2.34	1,930	71
Jon Gray R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	23.5%	8.2%	2.6%	.308	3.75	23.5%	15.5%	315	+0.15	2.93	1,345	68
Zach Plesac R 2022 · 4.30 FIP	27	SP	4.30	17.6%	6.7%	3.4%	.285	6.44	13.5%	5.0%	286	+2.14	3.27	965	64
Aaron Sanchez R 2019 · 4.74 FIP	27	SP	4.74	19.0%	10.9%	3.4%	.309	4.68	14.9%	7.1%	175	-0.06	3.43	924	61
Julio Teheran R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP	4.60	22.4%	11.2%	3.6%	.211	4.75	20.3%	9.7%	206	+0.15	3.61	1,134	61
Jimmy Nelson R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP	4.57	17.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.289	3.16	27.2%	18.6%	238	-1.41	1.32	650	60
Tyler Chatwood R 2017 · 4.54 FIP	27	SP-	4.54	19.0%	11.9%	2.8%	.279	4.53	20.6%	5.2%	199	-0.01	3.30	537	60
Sonny Gray R 2017 · 3.68 FIP	27	SP	3.68	22.6%	8.3%	2.6%	.267	3.28	26.4%	16.5%	362	-0.40	2.55	1,792	59
Jake Odorizzi R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	27	SP	5.39	21.0%	9.9%	5.1%	.225	3.63	24.7%	16.1%	337	-1.76	3.16	1,048	58
Michael Wacha R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	27	SP	4.19	20.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.247	4.89	21.0%	13.9%	285	+0.70	3.57	1,638	56
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	56
Marcus Stroman R 2018 · 3.77 FIP	27	SP	3.77	17.1%	8.0%	2.0%	.324	3.43	21.0%	14.4%	363	-0.34	3.28	1,367	55
Yordano Ventura R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	25	SP	4.48	17.6%	9.4%	3.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	349	55
Jerad Eickhoff R 2017 · 3.87 FIP	27	SP	3.87	20.5%	8.5%	2.6%	.321	5.64	18.5%	9.8%	94	+1.77	3.87	875	55
Nick Martinez R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	26	SP-	5.09	13.9%	5.6%	4.5%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	1,134	55
Nathan Eovaldi R 2016 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP	4.71	18.5%	7.2%	4.1%	.272	4.29	22.6%	15.6%	179	-0.42	2.44	1,378	53
Wily Peralta R 2016 · 4.41 FIP	27	SP	4.41	17.1%	7.9%	3.2%	.346	4.70	18.8%	6.6%	183	+0.29	3.98	748	52
Trevor Williams R 2019 · 4.94 FIP	27	SP	4.94	17.8%	6.4%	4.6%	.297	4.16	21.4%	14.5%	255	-0.78	2.69	1,292	52
Kyle Hendricks R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	27	SP	3.85	21.6%	6.8%	3.1%	.279	3.49	20.2%	16.0%	457	-0.36	3.02	1,685	51

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	150	17.3%	8.5%	1.15	4.61
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13