Cole Wilcox

P Seattle Mariners

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 232 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	28	28	144	3.57	3.21	18.3%	7.3%	—	K 15.0% · BB 7.5% · FIP 3.61
2025	26	MIX3 levels	40	1	59	4.10	4.65	24.3%	11.4%	-0.1	K 22.0% · BB 9.7% · FIP 4.24
2026	27	MIX2 levels	40	0	47	4.44	2.84	25.7%	10.9%	1.0	K 24.1% · BB 10.6% · FIP 2.97
2027PROJ	28	MLBSEA	156	0	164	4.38	4.11	24.2%	10.2%	0.9
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBSEA	141	0	148	4.33	4.28	23.4%	10.1%	0.5
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBSEA	133	0	140	4.42	4.49	22.6%	10.2%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Whiff%89

FB Velo79

K%53

xwOBA vs14

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 90%

CompsJunior Guerra (age 30) · Sam Lewis (age 27) · Coleman Huntley III (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.38

FIP4.11

K%24.2%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%14.1%

Proj IP164

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 164 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7996.6

Whiff%

p8931.4%

p5322.8%

xwOBA vs

p140.355

CH (12%)

SI (16%)

SL (44%)

FB-2.6 (44%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	10	10	44	174	52	5	1	100%	4.4	22.1%	3.4%	18.7%	0.7%	2.03	2.06	—
2021	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	10	10	44	174	52	5	1	100%	4.4	29.9%	2.9%	27.0%	0.6%	2.03	1.39	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	16	69	24	4	1	100%	2.3	34.8%	5.8%	29.0%	1.4%	3.94	1.69	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	16	69	24	4	1	100%	2.3	34.8%	5.8%	29.0%	1.4%	3.94	1.66	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	25	25	107	454	99	44	14	100%	4.3	17.7%	10.7%	7.0%	3.4%	5.23	4.83	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	25	25	107	454	99	44	14	100%	4.3	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	3.1%	5.23	4.19	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	144	602	110	44	8	100%	5.1	15.0%	7.5%	7.6%	1.5%	3.57	3.61	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	144	602	110	44	8	100%	5.1	15.0%	7.5%	7.6%	1.5%	3.57	3.61	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	144	602	110	44	8	100%	5.1	18.3%	7.3%	11.0%	1.3%	3.57	3.21	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	1	59	263	64	30	10	2%	1.5	22.0%	9.7%	12.3%	3.2%	4.10	4.24	+0.2
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	1	59	263	64	30	10	2%	1.5	22.0%	9.7%	12.3%	3.2%	4.10	4.24	+0.2
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	1	59	263	64	30	10	2%	1.5	24.3%	11.4%	12.9%	3.8%	4.10	4.65	-0.1
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	47	202	52	22	2	0%	1.2	24.1%	10.6%	13.5%	1.0%	4.44	2.97	+0.9
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	47	202	52	22	2	0%	1.2	24.1%	10.6%	13.5%	1.0%	4.44	2.97	+0.9
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	47	202	52	22	2	0%	1.2	25.7%	10.9%	14.9%	1.0%	4.44	2.84	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			24	0	28	135	29	19	2	0%	1.2	21.5%	14.1%	7.4%	1.5%	4.82	3.99	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	SEA	156	0	164	692	168	70	18	0%	1.1	24.2%	10.2%	14.1%	2.5%	4.38	4.11	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	SEA	149	0	156	660	155	67	18	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	2.7%	4.33	4.28	+0.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	SEA	140	0	147	620	140	64	18	0%	1.0	22.6%	10.2%	12.4%	2.9%	4.42	4.49	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	SEA	141	0	148	625	146	63	17	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	2.7%	4.33	4.28	+0.5
2029	30	MLB CTX	SEA	133	0	140	591	134	61	17	0%	1.1	22.6%	10.2%	12.4%	2.9%	4.42	4.49	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		298	0	316	1351	309	143	36	0%	1.1	22.9%	10.6%	12.3%	2.7%	4.41	3.99	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	0	200	855	196	90	23	0%	1.1	22.9%	10.6%	12.3%	2.7%	4.41	3.99	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		150	71	417	1764	340	150	37	47%	2.8	19.3%	8.5%	10.7%	2.1%	4.02	3.72	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	34	200	847	163	72	18	47%	2.8	19.3%	8.5%	10.7%	2.1%	4.02	3.72	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Wilcox (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.11	24.2%	10.2%	2.5%	—	4.38	23.0%	12.8%	303	+0.27	—	—	—
Junior Guerra R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	30	SW	3.18	26.8%	10.3%	1.9%	.269	4.15	20.8%	10.9%	390	+0.97	3.18	646	72
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	70
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	69
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	67
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	66
Jose Contreras R 2003 · 3.03 FIP	31	SP-	3.03	24.6%	9.9%	1.4%	.255	4.30	17.9%	9.5%	571	+1.27	2.43	1,279	66
Diego Moreno R 2015 · 2.95 FIP	28	SU	2.95	17.9%	8.1%	0.6%	.257	3.21	21.6%	14.6%	78	+0.26	2.29	187	66
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	65
Mayckol Guaipe R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	28	SW	4.18	26.0%	7.6%	4.2%	.432	—	—	—	—	—	1.88	136	65
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	64
Calvin Drummond R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	26	SW	3.55	16.9%	11.1%	0.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	112	63
Ryne Stanek R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	28	SW	4.14	27.2%	11.0%	3.5%	.262	3.39	28.2%	15.7%	123	-0.75	2.96	771	63
Connor Schultz R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	25	SU	3.88	19.7%	5.3%	3.2%	.283	4.02	18.8%	10.4%	156	+0.14	3.53	203	63
Andrew Robinson R 2016 · 3.19 FIP	28	SU	3.19	22.2%	7.9%	1.8%	.247	4.32	23.4%	14.6%	39	+1.13	3.19	160	63
Cody Poteet R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	28	SW	4.79	18.4%	9.6%	3.7%	.244	3.73	21.1%	13.3%	68	-1.06	3.52	619	62
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	62
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	62
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	62
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	62
Mitch Lively R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	29	SU	3.07	18.2%	9.0%	0.7%	.204	3.04	19.6%	14.0%	123	-0.03	2.39	158	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	124	23.3%	10.5%	1.03	4.40
Ian Anderson ('25)	1.4	94	22.2%	10.5%	0.99	4.22
Sam Gibson ('26-'32, 2 WAR*)	2.9	147	20.8%*	9.8%*	1.14*	4.50*
Willie Ramsdell ('47-'52, 4 WAR*)	2.4	120	21.9%*	9.4%*	1.15*	3.99*
Doug McWeeny ('21-'30, 5 WAR*)	4.7	135	24.8%*	11.5%*	1.26*	4.35*
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.4	94	21.9%	9.7%	1.25	4.45
Jimmy Nelson ('21)	3.3	110	21.8%	8.9%	0.94	4.12