Caleb Bolden

P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	33	10	74	4.12	3.10	25.5%	11.7%	—	K 20.4% · BB 13.0% · FIP 3.83
2025	26	AABOS	18	10	58	5.74	3.05	22.6%	9.8%	—	K 18.3% · BB 10.8% · FIP 3.58
2026	27	MIX2 levels	36	3	78	5.79	3.02	27.5%	9.0%	—	K 22.1% · BB 9.5% · FIP 3.46
2027PROJ	28	MLBBOS	66	0	69	4.48	4.48	20.4%	10.8%	0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBBOS	20	0	21	4.55	4.60	20.4%	10.9%	-0.0
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBBOS	30	0	32	4.66	4.75	20.3%	11.1%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control45Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsEmmanuel Chapman (age 25) · Coleman Huntley III (age 28) · Dalier Hinojosa (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%20.4%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%9.5%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	2	0	1	10	0	2	0	0%	0.7	0.0%	20.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	27.00	5.63	—
2022	23	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	2	0	1	10	0	2	0	0%	0.7	0.0%	20.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	27.00	7.60	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	58	253	84	29	4	0%	1.8	26.6%	14.7%	11.9%	0.6%	4.17	3.06	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	58	253	84	29	4	0%	1.8	33.2%	11.5%	21.7%	1.6%	4.17	2.60	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	10	74	325	83	38	4	30%	2.3	20.4%	13.0%	7.3%	1.5%	4.12	3.83	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	10	74	325	83	38	4	30%	2.3	20.4%	13.0%	7.3%	1.5%	4.12	3.83	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	10	74	325	83	38	4	30%	2.3	25.5%	11.7%	13.8%	1.2%	4.12	3.10	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	18	10	58	265	60	26	3	56%	3.2	18.3%	10.8%	7.5%	1.2%	5.74	3.58	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	18	10	58	265	60	26	3	56%	3.2	18.3%	10.8%	7.5%	1.2%	5.74	3.58	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	18	10	58	265	60	26	3	56%	3.2	22.6%	9.8%	12.8%	1.1%	5.74	3.05	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	3	78	346	95	31	7	8%	2.2	22.1%	9.5%	12.5%	1.9%	5.79	3.46	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	3	78	346	95	31	7	8%	2.2	22.1%	9.5%	12.5%	1.9%	5.79	3.46	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	3	78	346	95	31	7	8%	2.2	27.5%	9.0%	18.5%	2.0%	5.79	3.02	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	BOS	66	0	69	291	59	32	7	0%	1.0	20.4%	10.8%	9.5%	2.5%	4.48	4.48	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	BOS	63	0	66	280	57	30	7	0%	1.1	20.4%	10.9%	9.5%	2.7%	4.55	4.60	-0.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	BOS	59	0	62	263	53	29	8	0%	1.1	20.3%	11.1%	9.2%	2.9%	4.66	4.75	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	BOS	20	0	21	89	18	10	2	0%	1.1	20.4%	10.9%	9.5%	2.7%	4.55	4.60	-0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	BOS	30	0	32	135	27	15	4	0%	1.1	20.3%	11.1%	9.2%	2.9%	4.66	4.75	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	0	53	222	45	24	6	0%	1.1	20.4%	11.0%	9.4%	2.8%	4.62	4.31	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	171	91	23	0%	1.1	20.4%	11.0%	9.4%	2.8%	4.62	4.31	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		121	23	270	1199	258	143	16	19%	2.2	21.5%	11.9%	9.6%	1.3%	5.07	3.52	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	17	200	889	192	106	12	19%	2.2	21.5%	11.9%	9.6%	1.3%	5.07	3.52	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caleb Bolden (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	20.4%	10.8%	2.5%	—	4.67	20.4%	9.4%	128	+0.19	—	—	—
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	85
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	84
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	82
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	82
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	80
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	80
Murphy Smith R 2016 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	19.3%	9.3%	1.6%	.245	4.43	13.6%	6.8%	145	+0.89	3.16	300	80
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	79
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	79
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	79
Calvin Drummond R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	26	SW	3.55	16.9%	11.1%	0.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	112	79
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	78
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	78
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	78
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	78
Robert Kwiatkowski R 2024 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	18.3%	9.0%	2.4%	.255	4.23	15.9%	2.3%	20	+0.20	4.03	254	78
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	78
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	77
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	77
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	20.4%	10.9%	1.03	4.56
Blake Wood ('18)	1.4	72	21.7%	11.2%	0.90	4.47
Chris Resop ('13)	1.2	61	18.6%	10.3%	0.85	4.62
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*