Seth Nordlin prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Seth Nordlin P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 213 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 66 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%17.0%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP67

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	19	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	12	0	22	82	34	5	0	0%	1.8	28.2%	7.6%	20.6%	0.0%	2.49	1.68	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	12	0	22	82	34	5	0	0%	1.8	41.5%	6.1%	35.4%	0.0%	2.49	0.65	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	20	11	83	361	87	32	11	55%	4.2	18.6%	10.2%	8.4%	4.3%	5.20	5.20	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	20	11	83	361	87	32	11	55%	4.2	24.1%	8.9%	15.2%	3.0%	5.20	3.88	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	6	77	325	66	25	7	19%	2.4	16.7%	8.3%	8.4%	3.0%	3.61	4.39	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	6	77	325	66	25	7	19%	2.4	20.3%	7.7%	12.6%	2.2%	3.61	3.54	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	16	96	432	68	27	13	50%	3.0	12.9%	6.6%	6.3%	3.6%	5.61	4.81	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	16	96	432	68	27	13	50%	3.0	12.9%	6.6%	6.3%	3.6%	5.61	4.81	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	16	96	432	68	27	13	50%	3.0	15.7%	6.2%	9.5%	3.0%	5.61	4.28	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.0%	7.6%	9.4%	3.1%	4.69	4.69	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	TEX	61	0	64	269	47	22	9	0%	1.0	17.4%	8.0%	9.4%	3.2%	4.73	4.78	-0.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	TEX	57	0	60	253	44	21	9	0%	1.1	17.5%	8.4%	9.1%	3.4%	4.83	4.92	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	TEX	19	0	20	84	15	7	3	0%	1.1	17.4%	8.0%	9.4%	3.2%	4.73	4.78	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	TEX	30	0	31	131	23	11	4	0%	1.0	17.5%	8.4%	9.1%	3.4%	4.83	4.92	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	0	51	214	37	18	7	0%	1.1	17.4%	8.2%	9.2%	3.3%	4.79	4.49	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	146	71	28	0%	1.1	17.4%	8.2%	9.2%	3.3%	4.79	4.49	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		96	33	278	1200	200	98	41	34%	2.9	16.7%	8.2%	8.5%	3.4%	4.69	4.60	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	24	200	862	144	71	29	34%	2.9	16.7%	8.2%	8.5%	3.4%	4.69	4.60	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Seth Nordlin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	17.0%	7.6%	3.1%	—	4.85	17.4%	9.2%	124	+0.16	—	—	—
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	86
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	83
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	82
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	82
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	82
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	82
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	81
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	81
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	80
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	78
Cory Lidle R 2000 · 4.32 FIP	28	SW	4.32	14.6%	6.1%	3.1%	.313	4.06	14.2%	8.7%	573	-0.26	3.48	1,318	78
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	77
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	77
Eddie Bonine R 2009 · 5.60 FIP	28	SW	5.60	13.1%	7.6%	4.8%	.306	4.54	8.6%	2.0%	68	-1.06	4.40	129	77
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	76
Nelson Figueroa R 2002 · 5.41 FIP	28	SW	5.41	12.4%	7.5%	4.4%	.250	5.52	12.5%	4.6%	64	+0.11	3.71	499	75
Todd Wellemeyer R 2007 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	17.0%	10.8%	3.1%	.270	4.86	15.5%	6.4%	373	+0.12	3.35	615	74
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	73
Jeff Manship R 2013 · 5.11 FIP	28	SW	5.11	12.9%	7.9%	3.8%	.298	3.57	20.0%	11.7%	137	-1.54	2.83	250	73
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	64	17.3%	8.0%	1.24	4.75
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Blas Minor ('97)	1.1	75	19.2%	7.3%	1.16	4.40
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Ricky Stone ('07)	1.3	64	15.2%	8.0%	1.55	4.68