Nolan Hoffman — OGILVIE

Nolan Hoffman P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

+0.2 WAR

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

ERA4.30

FIP4.30

xFIP2.14

SIERA3.48

K%23.9%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%12.1%

IP60

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2027

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†6060

CH (12%)

CT (8%)

SI (54%)

CU (27%)

FB-1.1 (54%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2018	20	ROK	AZL Mariners	6	0	7	25	7	1	0	—	—	—	1.35	—	—
2019	21	A	West Virginia Power	9	0	8	33	7	3	0	—	—	—	1.08	—	—
2021	23	A+	Everett AquaSox	37	2	51	207	55	14	2	20.0%	7.9%	1.1%	3.53	3.03	+1.1
2022	24	AA	Bowie Baysox	20	0	27	119	25	9	1	17.5%	7.5%	1.0%	3.62	3.15	+0.6
2023	25	AAA	Norfolk Tides	32	0	44	191	34	14	1	15.6%	7.5%	0.6%	3.05	3.05	+1.0
2024	26	AAA	Norfolk Tides	44	0	58	273	77	36	2	24.8%	13.8%	0.8%	3.88	3.20	+1.1
2025	27	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	50	3	66	300	83	37	6	24.3%	12.9%	2.4%	5.18	3.99	+0.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	6	0	6	26	10	4	0	—	—	—	3.18	—	—
ROS	28	MLB	PHI	24	—	24	101	25	12	2	24.5%	12.3%	2.4%	4.31	4.31	+0.2
2026 Total	28	MLB	PHI	—	—	30	127	35	16	2	27.3%	12.9%	1.9%	4.09	3.49	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	29	MLB	PHI	59	—	59	247	60	30	6	24.2%	12.1%	2.5%	4.34	4.36	+0.4
2028	30	MLB	PHI	57	—	57	240	58	29	6	24.0%	11.9%	2.6%	4.39	4.42	+0.3
2029	31	MLB	PHI	55	—	55	231	55	28	6	23.7%	11.9%	2.7%	4.44	4.49	+0.3
2030	32	MLB	PHI	53	—	53	222	52	27	6	23.4%	12.0%	2.8%	4.51	4.57	+0.2
2031	33	MLB	PHI	50	—	50	212	49	26	6	23.1%	12.2%	2.9%	4.60	4.67	+0.2
2032	34	MLB	PHI	48	—	48	201	46	25	6	22.8%	12.4%	3.0%	4.71	4.78	+0.1
2033	35	MLB	PHI	45	—	45	190	43	24	6	22.4%	12.6%	3.1%	4.82	4.90	+0.0
2034	36	MLB	PHI	42	—	42	178	39	23	6	22.0%	12.9%	3.2%	4.95	5.03	-0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			204	5	267	1174	257	124	14	21.9%	10.6%	1.2%	3.80	3.25	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—			153	4	200	878	192	93	10	21.9%	10.6%	1.2%	3.80	3.25	+4.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nolan Hoffman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	24.5%	12.3%	2.4%	—	4.42	24.0%	12.0%	170	+0.11	—	—	—
José Cisnero R 2025 · 4.50 FIP	27	SU	4.50	26.1%	11.7%	3.9%	.367	3.92	24.5%	13.3%	75	-0.58	2.26	279	81
Greg Holland R 2027 · 3.19 FIP	29	SU	3.19	25.4%	13.0%	1.1%	.316	3.45	26.4%	14.2%	104	+0.26	1.94	268	81
Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.39 FIP	28	SU	3.39	23.5%	10.7%	1.7%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	166	76
Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.30 FIP	27	SU	4.30	20.4%	12.1%	2.5%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	113	75
Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP	28	SU	3.76	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.34	2.42	125	74
Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.57	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.10	2.59	137	74
Peyton Gray R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	26	SU	4.26	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	4.26	104	74
Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.83 FIP	30	SU	4.83	18.6%	12.2%	3.2%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.52	1.30	218	73
Javy Guerra R 2028 · 4.30 FIP	30	SW	4.30	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.87	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.43	3.01	260	73
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	28	SU	4.51	23.3%	13.6%	3.0%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	315	73
Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.33 FIP	29	SU	4.33	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.99	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.34	3.47	149	73
Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	28	SW	3.52	22.6%	9.0%	2.2%	.327	4.82	20.9%	11.8%	74	+1.30	2.39	676	73
Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.53 FIP	28	SW	3.53	23.2%	9.0%	2.3%	.309	4.28	24.0%	17.4%	119	+0.75	2.83	363	72
Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP	28	SU	4.85	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.87	18.2%	10.2%	272	-0.98	3.45	315	72
Michael Ynoa R 2025 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.2%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.32	142	72
Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.16 FIP	27	SU	5.16	21.1%	13.8%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.84	153	71
Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.08	3.70	187	71
Nathanael Santiago R 2025 · 3.65 FIP	27	SU	3.65	25.5%	12.6%	2.0%	.272	2.48	19.9%	14.3%	37	-1.17	2.48	138	71
Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 4.85 FIP	28	SU	4.85	17.9%	12.5%	3.1%	.450	3.38	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.47	3.01	115	71
Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.72 FIP	30	SW	3.72	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.88	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	70

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.