Nolan Hoffman

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	AAABAL	44	0	58	3.88	2.76	28.2%	13.2%	—	K 24.3% · BB 11.9% · FIP 3.00
2025	27	MIX2 levels	50	3	66	5.18	3.45	27.7%	12.3%	0.9	K 23.8% · BB 11.1% · FIP 3.80
2026	28	MIX2 levels	54	0	58	4.50	2.93	25.1%	12.2%	1.1	K 22.2% · BB 11.2% · FIP 3.10
2027PROJ	29	MLBKC	44	0	46	4.19	4.13	23.2%	11.4%	0.2
2028PROJ78% MLB	30	MLBKC	38	0	40	4.30	4.36	22.6%	11.5%	0.1
2029PROJ83% MLB	31	MLBKC	33	0	35	4.47	4.58	21.9%	11.7%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo32

xwOBA vs24

K%21

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJustin Miller (age 29) · Joe Nelson (age 31) · Dustin Molleken (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 95

ERA4.19

FIP4.13

K%23.2%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%11.8%

Proj IP66

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3293.2

Whiff%

p3623.3%

p2117.9%

xwOBA vs

p240.343

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	6	0	7	25	7	1	0	0%	1.1	28.0%	4.0%	24.0%	0.0%	1.35	1.24	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	6	0	7	25	7	1	0	0%	1.1	28.0%	4.0%	24.0%	0.0%	1.35	1.45	—
2019	21	A MLE	West Virginia Power	9	0	8	33	7	3	0	0%	0.9	21.2%	9.1%	12.1%	0.0%	1.08	2.46	—
2019	21	A RAW	West Virginia Power	9	0	8	33	7	3	0	0%	0.9	21.2%	9.1%	12.1%	0.0%	1.08	2.50	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	2	51	207	55	14	2	5%	1.4	20.0%	7.9%	12.1%	1.1%	3.53	3.03	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	2	51	207	55	14	2	5%	1.4	26.6%	6.8%	19.8%	1.0%	3.53	2.28	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	0	27	119	25	9	1	0%	1.4	17.5%	7.5%	9.9%	1.0%	3.62	3.13	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	0	27	119	25	9	1	0%	1.4	21.0%	7.6%	13.4%	0.8%	3.62	2.73	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	44	191	34	14	1	0%	1.4	15.6%	7.5%	8.1%	0.6%	3.05	3.04	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	44	191	34	14	1	0%	1.4	17.8%	7.3%	10.5%	0.5%	3.05	2.81	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	44	0	58	273	77	36	2	0%	1.3	24.3%	11.9%	12.4%	0.8%	3.88	3.00	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	44	0	58	273	77	36	2	0%	1.3	24.3%	11.9%	12.4%	0.8%	3.88	3.00	—
2024	26	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	44	0	58	273	77	36	2	0%	1.3	28.2%	13.2%	15.0%	0.7%	3.88	2.76	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	3	66	300	83	37	6	6%	1.3	23.8%	11.1%	12.7%	2.4%	5.18	3.80	+0.6
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	3	66	300	83	37	6	6%	1.3	23.8%	11.1%	12.7%	2.4%	5.18	3.80	+0.6
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	3	66	300	83	37	6	6%	1.3	27.7%	12.3%	15.3%	2.0%	5.18	3.45	+0.9
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	58	263	66	32	2	0%	1.1	22.2%	11.2%	11.0%	0.8%	4.50	3.10	+1.0
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	58	263	66	32	2	0%	1.1	22.2%	11.2%	11.0%	0.8%	4.50	3.10	+1.0
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	58	263	66	32	2	0%	1.1	25.1%	12.2%	12.9%	0.8%	4.50	2.93	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			16	0	16	74	14	7	0	0%	1.0	18.9%	9.5%	9.5%	0.0%	5.06	2.66	+0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	KC	44	0	46	194	45	22	4	0%	1.0	23.2%	11.4%	11.8%	2.1%	4.19	4.13	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	KC	49	0	51	215	49	25	5	0%	1.0	22.6%	11.5%	11.1%	2.4%	4.30	4.36	+0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	KC	40	0	42	178	39	21	5	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.7%	10.2%	2.7%	4.47	4.58	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	KC	38	0	40	169	38	19	4	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.5%	11.1%	2.4%	4.30	4.36	+0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	KC	33	0	35	148	32	17	4	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.7%	10.2%	2.7%	4.47	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		87	0	91	389	84	43	8	0%	1.0	21.6%	11.2%	10.4%	2.1%	4.50	3.82	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	0	200	859	185	95	18	0%	1.0	21.6%	11.2%	10.4%	2.1%	4.50	3.82	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		252	5	320	1411	302	139	16	2%	1.3	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	1.1%	3.94	3.16	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		158	3	200	883	189	87	10	2%	1.3	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	1.1%	3.94	3.16	+0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 43 IPFIP 3.01 → 3.23 (+0.21)K% 27.6% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.55%	—	×0.860	23.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.27%	—	×0.900	11.94%
HR / BF /BF	1.02%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.12%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.01 → 3.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 65 IPFIP 3.45 → 3.80 (+0.35)K% 27.6% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.65%	—	×0.860	23.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.29%	—	×0.900	11.06%
HR / BF /BF	2.05%	÷0.947	×1.100	2.38%

Result: FIP 3.45 → 3.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 58 IPFIP 2.79 → 3.00 (+0.21)K% 28.2% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.21%	—	×0.860	24.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.19%	—	×0.900	11.87%
HR / BF /BF	0.73%	÷0.996	×1.100	0.81%

Result: FIP 2.79 → 3.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABowie Baysox · 41 IPFIP 2.64 → 3.04 (+0.39)K% 19.3% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.32%	—	×0.810	15.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.82%	—	×1.100	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.57%	÷1.208	×1.200	0.56%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 142).

Result: FIP 2.64 → 3.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AABowie Baysox · 23 IPFIP 2.69 → 3.13 (+0.45)K% 21.6% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.57%	—	×0.810	17.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.86%	—	×1.100	7.55%
HR / BF /BF	0.98%	÷1.170	×1.200	1.01%

Result: FIP 2.69 → 3.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AModesto Nuts · 29 IPFIP 1.80 → 2.58 (+0.78)K% 27.2% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.19%	—	×0.740	20.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.89%	—	×1.180	9.32%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.861	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 72).

Result: FIP 1.80 → 2.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Everett AquaSox · 22 IPFIP 2.78 → 3.57 (+0.79)K% 25.8% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.81%	—	×0.770	19.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.38%	—	×1.150	6.18%
HR / BF /BF	2.15%	÷1.078	×1.250	2.49%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 2.78 → 3.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AWest Virginia Power · 8 IPFIP 2.46 → 3.13 (+0.67)K% 21.2% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.21%	—	×0.740	15.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.180	10.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.016	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.46 → 3.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nolan Hoffman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.13	23.2%	11.4%	2.1%	—	4.46	22.3%	10.7%	93	+0.33	—	—	—
Justin Miller R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	29	SU	3.74	20.8%	9.7%	2.1%	.353	4.72	22.5%	16.5%	127	+0.98	2.63	292	80
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	80
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	78
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	77
Erik Davis R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	29	SU	3.05	24.4%	9.5%	1.5%	.329	3.88	19.8%	9.8%	129	+0.83	3.05	227	77
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	77
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	76
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	76
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	76
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	76
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	75
Michael Dimock R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	23.5%	10.7%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	166	75
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	75
Kirby Yates R 2016 · 3.11 FIP	29	SU	3.11	26.4%	9.6%	1.8%	.310	2.13	38.5%	32.2%	180	-0.98	0.66	526	74
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	74
Chuck King R 2024 · 3.17 FIP	26	SU	3.17	19.4%	9.9%	0.8%	.308	4.25	15.8%	8.7%	256	+1.08	3.17	294	74
Grant Sides R 2019 · 3.31 FIP	30	SU	3.31	21.7%	9.8%	1.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	159	74
Louis Head R 2019 · 4.85 FIP	29	SU	4.85	21.2%	12.7%	3.5%	.450	3.54	23.7%	13.1%	108	-1.31	2.76	336	74
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	74
Scott Atchison R 2004 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	27.1%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.55	19.1%	11.5%	31	+0.94	2.52	340	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	22.3%	11.3%	0.83	4.37
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Blake Wood ('18)	1.4	72	21.7%	11.2%	0.90	4.47
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*
Bob Allen ('61-'67, -1 WAR*)	1.4	55	21.4%*	10.4%*	0.89*	4.79*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*