Nolan Hoffman — OGILVIE

Nolan Hoffman P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA3.91

FIP3.91

K%23.3%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%11.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5555

CH (12%)

CT (8%)

SI (54%)

CU (27%)

FB-1.1 (54%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	6	0	7	25	7	1	0	0%	1.1	28.0%	4.0%	24.0%	0.0%	1.35	1.24	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	6	0	7	25	7	1	0	0%	1.1	28.0%	4.0%	24.0%	0.0%	1.35	1.45	—
2019	21	A MLE	West Virginia Power	9	0	8	33	7	3	0	0%	0.9	21.2%	9.1%	12.1%	0.0%	1.08	2.46	—
2019	21	A RAW	West Virginia Power	9	0	8	33	7	3	0	0%	0.9	21.2%	9.1%	12.1%	0.0%	1.08	2.50	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	2	51	207	55	14	2	5%	1.4	20.0%	7.9%	12.1%	1.1%	3.53	3.03	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	2	51	207	55	14	2	5%	1.4	26.6%	6.8%	19.8%	1.0%	3.53	2.28	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	0	27	119	25	9	1	0%	1.4	17.5%	7.5%	9.9%	1.0%	3.62	3.13	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	0	27	119	25	9	1	0%	1.4	21.0%	7.6%	13.4%	0.8%	3.62	2.73	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	44	191	34	14	1	0%	1.4	15.6%	7.5%	8.1%	0.6%	3.05	3.04	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	44	191	34	14	1	0%	1.4	15.6%	7.5%	8.1%	0.6%	3.05	3.04	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	44	191	34	14	1	0%	1.4	17.8%	7.3%	10.5%	0.5%	3.05	2.81	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	44	0	58	273	77	36	2	0%	1.3	23.4%	11.9%	11.5%	0.8%	3.88	3.07	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	44	0	58	273	77	36	2	0%	1.3	23.4%	11.9%	11.5%	0.8%	3.88	3.07	—
2024	26	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	44	0	58	273	77	36	2	0%	1.3	28.2%	13.2%	15.0%	0.7%	3.88	2.76	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	3	66	300	83	37	6	6%	1.3	22.9%	11.1%	11.9%	2.4%	5.18	3.87	+0.5
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	3	66	300	83	37	6	6%	1.3	22.9%	11.1%	11.9%	2.4%	5.18	3.87	+0.5
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	3	66	300	83	37	6	6%	1.3	27.7%	12.3%	15.3%	2.0%	5.18	3.45	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	0	11	49	8	5	0	0%	1.2	16.3%	10.2%	6.1%	0.0%	6.55	3.01	+0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	47	0	53	238	60	30	2	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.9%	10.9%	1.1%	4.75	3.30	—
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	47	0	53	238	60	30	2	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.9%	10.9%	1.1%	4.75	3.30	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	KC	39	0	43	196	54	26	2	0%	1.1	27.6%	13.3%	14.3%	1.0%	4.81	3.01	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	KC	8	0	10	42	6	4	0	0%	1.2	14.3%	9.5%	4.8%	0.0%	4.50	3.10	+0.2
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	KC	8	0	10	42	6	4	0	0%	1.2	14.3%	9.5%	4.8%	0.0%	4.50	3.10	+0.2
ROS	28	MLB MLE	KC	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	23.3%	11.5%	11.8%	2.4%	3.91	3.91	+0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	KC	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	23.3%	11.5%	11.8%	2.4%	3.91	3.91	+0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	59	263	66	33	3	—	—	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	1.0%	4.67	3.36	+0.9
FULL	28	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	16	67	66	33	3	—	—	98.3%	49.1%	49.2%	3.9%	17.35	3.15	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	KC	63	0	66	280	62	31	7	0%	1.1	22.2%	11.2%	10.9%	2.5%	4.34	4.39	+0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	KC	59	0	62	263	58	30	7	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.4%	10.5%	2.7%	4.47	4.56	-0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	KC	60	0	63	266	59	30	7	0%	1.1	22.2%	11.2%	10.9%	2.5%	4.34	4.39	+0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	KC	56	0	59	249	55	28	7	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.4%	10.5%	2.7%	4.47	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		131	0	139	589	127	66	14	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.2%	10.4%	2.4%	4.55	4.00	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	848	183	95	20	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.2%	10.4%	2.4%	4.55	4.00	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		245	5	315	1386	293	138	17	2%	1.3	21.2%	9.9%	11.2%	1.2%	3.98	3.23	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		156	3	200	881	186	88	11	2%	1.3	21.2%	9.9%	11.2%	1.2%	3.98	3.23	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nolan Hoffman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.29	23.4%	11.4%	2.4%	—	4.47	22.0%	10.7%	128	+0.18	—	—	—
Greg Holland R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	29	SU	3.21	25.4%	13.0%	1.1%	.316	3.45	26.4%	14.2%	104	+0.24	1.97	268	79
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	76
Michael Mariot R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	22.6%	9.0%	2.1%	.327	4.79	20.9%	11.8%	74	+1.28	2.40	676	76
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	76
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	76
José Cisnero R 2016 · 4.50 FIP	27	SU	4.50	26.1%	11.7%	3.9%	.367	3.90	24.5%	13.3%	75	-0.60	2.26	279	76
Michael Dimock R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	23.5%	10.7%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	166	76
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	76
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	76
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	75
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	75
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	74
Zach McAllister R 2016 · 3.70 FIP	28	SU	3.70	23.2%	9.0%	2.6%	.309	4.18	24.0%	17.4%	119	+0.48	2.82	363	74
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	74
Chris Martin R 2015 · 3.24 FIP	29	SU	3.24	18.1%	7.0%	1.4%	.319	3.04	20.9%	19.2%	42	-0.20	1.76	416	73
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	73
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	73
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	73
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	73
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	22.5%	11.3%	0.98	4.36
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91