Bailey Dees

P Somerset Patriots

Age 28 RHP 6'8" / 247 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AANYY	27	26	138	4.25	3.96	24.9%	9.3%	—	K 20.1% · BB 10.2% · FIP 4.78
2025	26	MIX3 levels	35	10	85	3.59	3.43	27.3%	12.4%	—	K 21.8% · BB 13.8% · FIP 4.33
2026	27	AANYY	4	0	8	2.16	3.82	20.0%	20.0%	—	K 20.0% · BB 20.0% · FIP 3.94
2027PROJ	28	MLBNYY	150	0	158	4.86	4.86	21.4%	12.5%	-0.6
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBNYY	45	0	47	4.88	4.93	21.2%	12.3%	-0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBNYY	70	0	73	4.97	5.06	20.9%	12.2%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control40Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJose Pina (age 29) · Emmanuel Chapman (age 25) · Jim Brower (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%21.4%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%8.9%

Proj IP158

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 158 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	3	1	2	13	5	1	2	33%	0.8	38.5%	7.7%	30.8%	15.4%	7.71	9.27	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	3	1	2	13	5	1	2	33%	0.8	38.5%	7.7%	30.8%	15.4%	7.71	11.24	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	57	238	70	26	4	0%	1.7	21.3%	13.2%	8.2%	2.4%	3.30	4.26	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	57	238	70	26	4	0%	1.7	29.4%	10.9%	18.5%	1.7%	3.30	2.93	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	62	254	77	27	3	0%	1.5	23.6%	12.0%	11.6%	1.4%	2.60	3.41	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	62	254	77	27	3	0%	1.5	30.3%	10.6%	19.7%	1.2%	2.60	2.55	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	27	26	138	583	145	54	19	96%	5.1	20.1%	10.2%	10.0%	3.8%	4.25	4.78	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	27	26	138	583	145	54	19	96%	5.1	20.1%	10.2%	10.0%	3.8%	4.25	4.78	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	27	26	138	583	145	54	19	96%	5.1	24.9%	9.3%	15.6%	3.3%	4.25	3.96	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	10	85	362	99	45	7	29%	2.4	21.8%	13.8%	8.0%	2.4%	3.59	4.33	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	10	85	362	99	45	7	29%	2.4	21.8%	13.8%	8.0%	2.4%	3.59	4.33	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	35	10	85	362	99	45	7	29%	2.4	27.3%	12.4%	14.9%	1.9%	3.59	3.43	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	4	0	8	30	6	6	0	0%	2.1	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.16	3.94	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	4	0	8	30	6	6	0	0%	2.1	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.16	3.94	—
2026	27	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	4	0	8	30	6	6	0	0%	2.1	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.16	3.82	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	NYY	150	0	158	667	143	84	19	0%	1.1	21.4%	12.5%	8.9%	2.9%	4.86	4.86	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYY	143	0	151	636	135	78	20	0%	1.1	21.2%	12.3%	8.9%	3.1%	4.88	4.93	-0.7
2029	30	MLB MLE	NYY	135	0	142	598	125	73	20	0%	1.0	20.9%	12.2%	8.7%	3.3%	4.97	5.06	-0.8
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYY	45	0	47	198	42	24	6	0%	1.0	21.2%	12.3%	8.9%	3.1%	4.88	4.93	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	NYY	70	0	73	308	65	38	10	0%	1.0	20.9%	12.2%	8.7%	3.3%	4.97	5.06	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		114	0	120	506	107	62	16	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.3%	8.8%	3.2%	4.93	4.63	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	103	27	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.3%	8.8%	3.2%	4.93	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		145	37	353	1480	318	178	42	26%	2.4	21.5%	12.0%	9.5%	2.8%	3.62	4.37	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	21	200	838	180	101	24	26%	2.4	21.5%	12.0%	9.5%	2.8%	3.62	4.37	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bailey Dees (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	21.4%	12.5%	2.9%	—	4.99	21.1%	8.8%	292	+0.13	—	—	—
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	76
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	69
Jim Brower R 2001 · 4.60 FIP	28	SW	4.60	16.8%	9.8%	3.0%	.260	3.85	16.0%	7.3%	273	-0.75	3.67	571	69
Josh A. Smith R 2016 · 4.68 FIP	28	SW	4.68	18.3%	8.7%	3.7%	.280	3.84	20.9%	14.5%	259	-0.84	2.91	598	65
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	64
Adam Quintana R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	27	SW	4.17	18.6%	11.7%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	1.72	201	64
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	64
Joel De La Cruz R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	14.4%	8.6%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	205	64
Taylor Cole R 2018 · 3.70 FIP	28	SU	3.70	25.4%	10.4%	2.6%	.291	3.49	22.0%	13.9%	72	-0.21	3.49	433	64
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	63
Seth Simmons R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	28	SW	4.27	18.1%	8.1%	3.0%	.262	6.20	13.3%	2.4%	54	+1.93	3.07	251	63
Todd Wellemeyer R 2007 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	17.0%	10.8%	3.1%	.270	4.86	15.5%	6.4%	373	+0.12	3.35	615	63
Noah Davis R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	27	SW	3.88	18.5%	8.4%	2.3%	.368	5.10	18.3%	7.9%	183	+1.22	3.76	596	63
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	63
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	62
Brad Allen R 2016 · 5.82 FIP	27	SW	5.82	14.7%	13.2%	4.2%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	149	61
Sugar Ray Marimon R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	26	SW	4.12	12.4%	9.1%	1.7%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	107	61
Mitch Neunborn R 2024 · 4.25 FIP	27	SP-	4.25	19.0%	12.0%	2.2%	.285	5.80	16.4%	6.5%	114	+1.55	3.65	248	60
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	60
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	150	21.2%	12.4%	1.19	4.90
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Rip Hagerman ('09-'16, 0 WAR*)	2.2	144	21.2%*	11.8%*	1.44*	4.55*
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Mysterious Walker ('10-'15, -1 WAR*)	1.5	99	20.6%*	11.4%*	1.25*	5.38*
Tyler Green ('98)	1.9	128	15.4%	11.8%	1.10	5.16
Tony Saunders ('99)	1.7	115	19.7%	13.2%	0.86	4.56