Shawn Semple
P
Arkansas Travelers
+0.8
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'1" / 220 lbs
AA
peak 0.8 · 2026
ERA4.55
FIP4.55
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.3%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%12.6%
IP96
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 13 | 0 | 18 | 72 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 20.8% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 1.00 | 1.57 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Tampa Tarpons | 3 | 3 | 16 | 60 | 19 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.81 | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 26 | 20 | 127 | 548 | 121 | 44 | 13 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.34 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 24 | 18 | 106 | 435 | 124 | 37 | 13 | 24.2% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 3.91 | 4.20 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 14 | 2 | 38 | 174 | 27 | 12 | 7 | 13.9% | 9.5% | 5.3% | 5.73 | 6.03 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 25 | 17 | 102 | 461 | 66 | 31 | 17 | 11.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.40 | 5.92 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 17 | 17 | 96 | 405 | 86 | 35 | 13 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 17 | 17 | 93 | 391 | 83 | 34 | 13 | 21.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.59 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 16 | 89 | 375 | 79 | 33 | 12 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.65 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 74 | 32 | 12 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 4.73 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 15 | 15 | 81 | 341 | 69 | 31 | 12 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 4.83 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 14 | 14 | 76 | 321 | 71 | 27 | 12 | 21.9% | 8.5% | 3.6% | 4.71 | 4.68 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | NYY | 13 | 13 | 71 | 301 | 65 | 26 | 11 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 4.77 | 4.81 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 37 | MLB | NYY | 12 | 12 | 66 | 279 | 59 | 25 | 11 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 4.88 | 4.96 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 105 | 60 | 406 | 1750 | 314 | 135 | 67 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 4.47 | 4.65 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 30 | 200 | 861 | 155 | 66 | 33 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 4.47 | 4.65 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shawn Semple (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 3.2% | — | 4.65 | 20.9% | 12.1% | 266 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 90 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .341 | 4.75 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.05 | 3.70 | 205 | 87 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 85 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.16 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .265 | 3.45 | 17.8% | 10.8% | 81 | -0.71 | 3.45 | 315 | 84 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 82 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 82 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 262 | 80 |
| Ervin Santana R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .273 | 4.12 | 19.2% | 12.4% | 417 | +0.12 | 3.75 | 720 | 79 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.36 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.4% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 265 | 79 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.94 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .315 | 4.95 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.01 | 3.94 | 567 | 78 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | +0.17 | 4.87 | 294 | 78 |
| Yohan Pino R 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.10 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .312 | 5.35 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.25 | 4.10 | 133 | 77 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2029 · 3.77 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.77 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .270 | 4.63 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.86 | 3.77 | 264 | 77 |
| Ramon Ramirez R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.56 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .310 | 5.29 | 9.2% | -4.9% | 29 | +1.73 | 3.56 | 155 | 76 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.52 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.86 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.34 | 4.52 | 150 | 76 |
| Jason Berken R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.51 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | +0.15 | 4.36 | 219 | 76 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2029 · 3.74 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.74 | 15.2% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .262 | 4.37 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 114 | +0.63 | 3.74 | 240 | 76 |
| Tim Adleman R 2025 · 5.33 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.33 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 5.0% | .276 | 4.33 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 117 | -1.00 | 3.64 | 605 | 74 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.13 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 248 | 74 |
| Dillon Gee R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.15 | 16.2% | 6.2% | 4.8% | .302 | 3.80 | 18.0% | 12.1% | 127 | -1.35 | 3.68 | 380 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.