Noah Bremer prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Noah Bremer P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 30 RHP 6'5" / 206 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 108

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%19.5%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	1	0	1	6	1	1	0	0%	0.7	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	40.50	3.80	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	1	0	1	6	1	1	0	0%	0.7	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	40.50	4.60	—
2018	22	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	17	17	81	347	69	25	8	100%	4.8	14.7%	8.5%	6.2%	2.5%	4.20	4.30	—
2018	22	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	17	17	81	347	69	25	8	100%	4.8	19.9%	7.2%	12.7%	2.3%	4.20	3.60	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	79	303	74	24	2	93%	5.2	18.0%	9.5%	8.5%	0.7%	2.86	3.19	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	14	79	303	74	24	2	93%	5.2	24.4%	7.9%	16.5%	0.7%	2.86	2.46	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	22	7	68	293	65	25	8	32%	3.1	18.0%	9.4%	8.6%	2.9%	4.48	4.39	—
2021	25	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	22	7	68	293	65	25	8	32%	3.1	22.2%	8.5%	13.7%	2.7%	4.48	3.82	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	13	53	236	44	24	9	72%	2.9	13.1%	11.9%	1.2%	4.2%	6.49	5.82	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	13	53	236	44	24	9	72%	2.9	13.1%	11.9%	1.2%	4.2%	6.49	5.82	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	13	53	236	44	24	9	72%	2.9	18.6%	10.2%	8.5%	3.8%	6.49	5.02	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.5%	10.3%	9.2%	3.1%	4.81	4.81	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	TEX	4	4	25	104	20	11	3	100%	6.2	19.5%	10.5%	8.9%	3.3%	4.89	4.97	-0.0
2027	31	MLB CTX	TEX	1	1	8	34	7	4	1	100%	8.0	19.5%	10.5%	8.9%	3.3%	4.89	4.97	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1	1	8	33	6	3	1	100%	7.7	19.5%	10.5%	8.9%	3.3%	4.89	4.59	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	156	78	26	100%	6.0	19.5%	10.5%	8.9%	3.3%	4.89	4.59	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		73	51	282	1185	190	115	29	70%	3.9	16.0%	9.7%	6.4%	2.5%	4.41	4.34	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	36	200	841	135	81	21	70%	3.9	16.0%	9.7%	6.4%	2.5%	4.41	4.34	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Noah Bremer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	19.5%	10.3%	3.1%	—	4.97	19.5%	8.9%	25	+0.16	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	78
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	76
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	73
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	73
Michael Mariot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	30	SP	5.01	19.8%	11.1%	4.0%	.333	5.03	15.8%	7.4%	182	+0.02	2.40	701	72
Jared Fernandez R 2002 · 4.23 FIP	30	SP-	4.23	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	.323	3.57	11.8%	5.6%	38	-0.66	3.57	101	71
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	71
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	581	69
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	68
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	67
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	66
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	66
Chris Mazza R 2020 · 3.94 FIP	30	SP-	3.94	21.3%	11.0%	2.3%	.348	3.95	21.4%	13.5%	111	+0.01	3.29	563	65
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	64
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	64
Aaron Wilkerson R 2019 · 4.67 FIP	30	SP-	4.67	20.9%	9.8%	3.8%	.291	3.33	24.6%	19.0%	112	-1.34	2.75	902	64
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	63
Ryan Glynn R 2005 · 5.98 FIP	30	SP-	5.98	18.3%	8.5%	6.1%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	5.23	226	63
Bryan Brickhouse R 2022 · 4.78 FIP	30	SP-	4.78	18.8%	11.7%	3.2%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	214	63
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	19.5%	10.4%	1.22	4.85
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10