Janson Junk

P Miami Marlins

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 197 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.5 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX2 levels	30	9	68	4.87	4.29	20.5%	8.3%	0.2	K 18.3% · BB 7.4% · FIP 4.16
2025	29	MIX2 levels	31	25	160	3.70	2.73	19.5%	3.1%	4.4	K 18.4% · BB 3.0% · FIP 2.85
2026	30	MIX2 levels	28	27	129	4.18	4.00	17.3%	6.0%	1.4	K 17.0% · BB 6.3% · FIP 4.12
2027PROJ	31	MLBMIA	18	18	111	4.15	4.18	16.7%	4.8%	0.9
2028PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBMIA	16	16	97	4.24	4.35	15.9%	5.1%	0.5
2029PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBMIA	15	15	89	4.47	4.62	15.0%	5.6%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.262First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$2M2030Arb-2$2M2031Ext$8M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs47

FB Velo44

K%14

Whiff%10

CompsCasey Lawrence (age 30) · Bruce Billings (age 29) · Jarrett Grube (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.15

FIP4.18

K%16.7%

BB%4.8%

K-BB%12.0%

Proj IP111

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 111 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF3535

CTRL7575

CMD5555

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p1015.9%

p1417.0%

xwOBA vs

p470.315

SL+5.6 (34%)

SI (4%)

CU (9%)

CH (17%)

FB-3.4 (39%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2021

Service 1.262 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	11	0	13	61	10	6	0	0%	1.2	11.1%	12.3%	-1.1%	0.0%	0.71	3.72	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees East	11	0	13	61	10	6	0	0%	1.2	16.4%	9.8%	6.6%	0.0%	0.71	2.94	—
2018	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	17	15	88	372	71	31	9	88%	5.2	14.1%	9.8%	4.3%	3.9%	3.77	5.28	—
2018	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	17	15	88	372	71	31	9	88%	5.2	19.1%	8.3%	10.8%	2.4%	3.77	3.87	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	14	88	411	81	42	10	64%	4.0	15.6%	11.3%	4.2%	2.8%	5.54	4.74	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	14	88	411	81	42	10	64%	4.0	19.7%	10.2%	9.5%	2.4%	5.54	4.17	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	109	446	107	29	16	91%	4.8	19.9%	7.1%	12.8%	3.5%	2.96	4.23	+0.9
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	109	446	107	29	16	91%	4.8	24.0%	6.5%	17.5%	3.6%	2.96	3.84	+1.4
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	82	349	80	21	10	89%	4.3	19.5%	6.1%	13.4%	3.2%	4.83	4.01	+0.9
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	17	82	349	80	21	10	89%	4.3	22.9%	6.0%	16.9%	2.9%	4.83	3.50	+1.4
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	26	147	627	99	46	15	90%	5.1	13.6%	6.7%	6.9%	2.9%	4.21	4.37	+0.9
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	26	147	627	99	46	15	90%	5.1	15.8%	7.3%	8.5%	2.4%	4.21	4.02	+1.5
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	9	68	302	62	25	10	30%	2.3	18.3%	7.4%	10.8%	3.0%	4.87	4.16	+0.3
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	9	68	302	62	25	10	30%	2.3	18.3%	7.4%	10.8%	3.0%	4.87	4.16	+0.3
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	9	68	302	62	25	10	30%	2.3	20.5%	8.3%	12.3%	3.3%	4.87	4.29	+0.2
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	25	160	642	125	20	10	81%	5.2	18.4%	3.0%	15.4%	1.7%	3.70	2.85	+4.1
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	25	160	642	125	20	10	81%	5.2	18.4%	3.0%	15.4%	1.7%	3.70	2.85	+4.1
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	25	160	642	125	20	10	81%	5.2	19.5%	3.1%	16.4%	1.6%	3.70	2.73	+4.4
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	129	549	95	33	16	96%	4.6	17.0%	6.3%	10.7%	3.0%	4.18	4.12	+1.2
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	129	549	95	33	16	96%	4.6	17.0%	6.3%	10.7%	3.0%	4.18	4.12	+1.2
2026	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	129	549	95	33	16	96%	4.6	17.3%	6.0%	11.3%	2.9%	4.18	4.00	+1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			62	48	274	1159	200	57	33	77%	4.4	17.3%	4.9%	12.3%	2.8%	4.57	3.83	+3.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	MIA	18	18	111	469	78	22	13	100%	6.2	16.7%	4.8%	12.0%	2.7%	4.15	4.18	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	MIA	17	17	102	433	69	22	13	100%	6.0	15.9%	5.1%	10.8%	3.0%	4.32	4.43	+0.6
2029	33	MLB MLE	MIA	16	16	94	397	60	22	13	100%	5.9	15.0%	5.6%	9.4%	3.3%	4.56	4.71	+0.2
2030	34	MLB MLE	MIA	14	14	86	361	51	22	13	100%	6.1	14.1%	6.1%	8.0%	3.6%	4.84	5.02	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	97	410	65	21	12	100%	6.1	15.9%	5.1%	10.8%	2.8%	4.24	4.35	+0.5
2029	33	MLB CTX	MIA	15	15	89	376	57	21	12	100%	5.9	15.0%	5.6%	9.4%	3.1%	4.47	4.62	+0.2
2030	34	MLB CTX	MIA	13	13	77	325	46	20	11	100%	5.9	14.1%	6.1%	8.0%	3.4%	4.74	4.92	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	92	538	2274	368	119	68	87%	5.1	16.2%	5.2%	11.0%	3.0%	4.52	4.03	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	34	200	846	137	44	25	87%	5.1	16.2%	5.2%	11.0%	3.0%	4.52	4.03	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		210	154	885	3759	632	262	107	73%	4.2	16.8%	7.0%	9.9%	2.9%	4.11	4.13	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	35	200	849	143	59	24	73%	4.2	16.8%	7.0%	9.9%	2.9%	4.11	4.13	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Janson Junk (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.18	16.7%	4.8%	2.7%	—	4.70	15.1%	9.5%	282	+0.52	—	—	—
Casey Lawrence R 2018 · 3.77 FIP	30	SP-	3.77	18.1%	4.4%	3.0%	.305	4.08	20.0%	14.8%	86	+0.31	3.57	1,374	66
Bruce Billings R 2015 · 3.09 FIP	29	SP-	3.09	15.6%	5.6%	1.1%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	121	65
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	63
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	62
Luke Hudson R 2006 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	14.5%	8.4%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	235	62
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	60
Scott Carroll R 2016 · 4.94 FIP	31	SP	4.94	10.5%	8.6%	3.0%	.289	5.71	14.4%	5.8%	22	+0.77	3.92	377	60
Leo Medrano R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	14.2%	3.9%	2.5%	.354	4.34	11.0%	3.7%	113	+0.58	3.76	222	60
Jorge Campillo R 2008 · 3.93 FIP	29	SP-	3.93	16.3%	5.5%	2.8%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	172	60
Mike Wright Jr. R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	31	SP-	3.89	19.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.237	4.79	14.4%	1.1%	56	+0.90	3.76	725	59
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	59
Mike Fiers R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	18.5%	5.8%	3.7%	.308	4.96	19.2%	12.2%	510	+0.66	2.83	1,140	58
Chase Anderson R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	31	SP	4.39	20.9%	8.1%	3.7%	.259	5.39	19.2%	10.0%	218	+1.00	3.30	1,260	58
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	58
Brad Peacock R 2019 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	25.1%	8.1%	4.0%	.261	4.15	22.8%	12.5%	96	-0.07	2.97	748	58
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	57
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.13	476	57
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	57
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	57
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	111	16.2%	5.2%	1.16	4.50
Tony Freitas ('32-'36, 3 WAR*)	2.6	130	13.8%*	6.6%*	1.09*	4.55*
John Butcher ('80-'86, 7 WAR*)	4.2	119	14.8%*	6.4%*	1.03*	4.54*
Jim McAndrew ('68-'74, 6 WAR*)	3.9	110	17.4%*	6.6%*	1.29*	4.35*
Kevin Slowey ('14)	3.3	95	17.5%	3.9%	1.35	4.62
Eric Stults ('15)	3.4	98	14.8%	6.6%	1.09	4.24
Jesse Litsch ('11)	2.1	104	13.5%	6.7%	1.19	4.16