Osvaldo Berrios
P
Worcester Red Sox
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 225 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 123 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 114
ERA5.02
FIP5.02
K%20.1%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%10.7%
ROS IP123
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 158 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | AZL Athletics | 13 | 7 | 27 | 129 | 25 | 8 | 2 | 54% | 2.1 | 13.2% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 8.00 | 4.16 | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | AZL Athletics | 13 | 7 | 27 | 129 | 25 | 8 | 2 | 54% | 2.1 | 19.4% | 6.2% | 13.2% | 1.6% | 8.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Athletics | 13 | 10 | 51 | 220 | 43 | 13 | 1 | 77% | 3.9 | 13.3% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 0.6% | 3.71 | 3.26 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Athletics | 13 | 10 | 51 | 220 | 43 | 13 | 1 | 77% | 3.9 | 19.5% | 5.9% | 13.6% | 0.5% | 3.71 | 2.43 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Athletics Gold | 4 | 2 | 15 | 58 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 50% | 3.8 | 19.9% | 0.0% | 19.9% | 2.4% | 3.60 | 2.74 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Athletics Gold | 4 | 2 | 15 | 58 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 50% | 3.8 | 29.3% | 0.0% | 29.3% | 1.7% | 3.60 | 1.70 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 16 | 103 | 456 | 90 | 30 | 16 | 73% | 4.7 | 14.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 5.94 | 4.90 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 16 | 103 | 456 | 90 | 30 | 16 | 73% | 4.7 | 19.7% | 6.6% | 13.2% | 3.5% | 5.94 | 4.25 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 27 | 11 | 93 | 422 | 79 | 33 | 16 | 41% | 3.5 | 14.4% | 9.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.17 | 5.95 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 27 | 11 | 93 | 422 | 79 | 33 | 16 | 41% | 3.5 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 3.8% | 6.17 | 4.70 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 0 | 36 | 158 | 47 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.7% | 6.9% | 15.8% | 2.6% | 3.53 | 3.46 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 0 | 36 | 158 | 47 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 29.7% | 7.0% | 22.8% | 3.2% | 3.53 | 3.21 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 4 | 58 | 258 | 62 | 24 | 11 | 10% | 1.4 | 19.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 5.2% | 5.12 | 5.55 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 4 | 58 | 258 | 62 | 24 | 11 | 10% | 1.4 | 24.0% | 9.3% | 14.7% | 4.3% | 5.12 | 4.67 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 17 | 4 | 35 | 136 | 33 | 14 | 4 | 24% | 2.0 | 20.4% | 12.8% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 2.86 | 5.21 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | BOS | 117 | 0 | 123 | 519 | 104 | 49 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 5.02 | 5.02 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 5.02 | 5.02 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 158 | 655 | 137 | 63 | 23 | — | — | 21.0% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 3.6% | 4.54 | 5.06 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 12 | 52 | 10 | 5 | 2 | — | — | 20.1% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 5.02 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 115 | 0 | 121 | 512 | 104 | 47 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 4.97 | 4.98 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 112 | 0 | 118 | 497 | 101 | 46 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 3.8% | 4.97 | 5.01 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 107 | 0 | 112 | 474 | 95 | 45 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 3.9% | 5.03 | 5.10 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 45 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 4.97 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 70 | 0 | 74 | 312 | 63 | 29 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 3.8% | 4.97 | 5.01 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 78 | 0 | 82 | 346 | 70 | 33 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 3.9% | 5.03 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 209 | 0 | 219 | 925 | 187 | 86 | 35 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 3.8% | 5.00 | 4.66 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 171 | 78 | 32 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 3.8% | 5.00 | 4.66 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 161 | 54 | 418 | 1837 | 301 | 154 | 68 | 34% | 2.6 | 16.4% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 5.19 | 4.81 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 77 | 26 | 200 | 880 | 144 | 74 | 33 | 34% | 2.6 | 16.4% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 5.19 | 4.81 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Osvaldo Berrios (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.02 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 3.7% | — | 5.03 | 20.2% | 10.9% | 351 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .300 | 4.91 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.00 | 3.91 | 223 | 86 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 86 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.71 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.44 | 3.27 | 339 | 81 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 81 |
| Jose Pina R 2029 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 81 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 81 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2027 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 80 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 79 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2028 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 77 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 77 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.48 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.76 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.28 | 3.84 | 420 | 76 |
| Kevin McGowan R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 3.7% | .322 | 5.39 | 15.4% | 4.7% | 64 | +0.55 | 2.93 | 426 | 76 |
| Logan Verrett R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 15.4% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .283 | 4.97 | 17.8% | 11.8% | 94 | -0.21 | 3.73 | 550 | 76 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.20 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.46 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 55 | -0.74 | 3.46 | 274 | 76 |
| Jordan Lyles R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.90 | 17.7% | 6.9% | 4.4% | .340 | 4.53 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 286 | -0.37 | 3.38 | 1,080 | 76 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.63 | 23.7% | 8.7% | 4.4% | .317 | 3.95 | 22.5% | 14.7% | 87 | -0.68 | 3.36 | 432 | 75 |
| Tyler Thornburg R 2026 · 5.95 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.95 | 15.4% | 8.9% | 5.5% | .295 | 3.64 | 28.7% | 19.3% | 104 | -2.31 | 2.67 | 301 | 75 |
| Dalton Roach R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.13 | 18.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | .268 | 5.20 | 19.7% | 10.1% | 155 | +0.07 | 3.18 | 402 | 75 |
| Seth McGarry R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.89 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.7% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 261 | 75 |
| Carlos Navas R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.08 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 3.4% | .271 | 6.98 | 19.3% | 10.0% | 44 | +2.90 | 2.94 | 385 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 119 | 20.2% | 9.3% | 1.46 | 5.00 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |