Osvaldo Berrios — OGILVIE

Osvaldo Berrios P Worcester Red Sox

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 225 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%19.8%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics	13	7	27	129	25	8	2	54%	2.1	13.2%	7.8%	5.4%	2.2%	8.00	4.16	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics	13	7	27	129	25	8	2	54%	2.1	19.4%	6.2%	13.2%	1.6%	8.00	3.10	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics	13	10	51	220	43	13	1	77%	3.9	13.3%	7.4%	5.9%	0.6%	3.71	3.26	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics	13	10	51	220	43	13	1	77%	3.9	19.5%	5.9%	13.6%	0.5%	3.71	2.43	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics Gold	4	2	15	58	17	0	1	50%	3.8	19.9%	0.0%	19.9%	2.4%	3.60	2.74	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics Gold	4	2	15	58	17	0	1	50%	3.8	29.3%	0.0%	29.3%	1.7%	3.60	1.70	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	16	103	456	90	30	16	73%	4.7	14.7%	7.7%	7.0%	4.1%	5.94	5.07	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	16	103	456	90	30	16	73%	4.7	19.7%	6.6%	13.2%	3.5%	5.94	4.25	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	27	11	93	422	79	33	16	41%	3.5	14.4%	9.0%	5.4%	5.0%	6.17	5.78	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	27	11	93	422	79	33	16	41%	3.5	18.7%	7.8%	10.9%	3.8%	6.17	4.70	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	36	158	47	11	5	0%	1.4	22.7%	6.9%	15.8%	2.5%	3.53	3.45	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	36	158	47	11	5	0%	1.4	22.7%	6.9%	15.8%	2.5%	3.53	3.45	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	36	158	47	11	5	0%	1.4	29.7%	7.0%	22.8%	3.2%	3.53	3.21	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	4	58	258	62	24	11	10%	1.4	19.6%	9.5%	10.0%	5.0%	5.12	5.39	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	4	58	258	62	24	11	10%	1.4	19.6%	9.5%	10.0%	5.0%	5.12	5.39	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	4	58	258	62	24	11	10%	1.4	24.0%	9.3%	14.7%	4.3%	5.12	4.67	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	32	6	57	245	58	32	11	19%	1.8	19.1%	13.2%	5.9%	5.8%	4.76	6.32	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	32	6	57	245	58	32	11	19%	1.8	19.1%	13.2%	5.9%	5.8%	4.76	6.32	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	ROK RAW	BOS	1	1	3	9	3	0	0	100%	3.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2026	26	A+ RAW	BOS	5	0	10	45	11	4	1	0%	2.1	24.4%	8.9%	15.6%	2.2%	5.23	3.38	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	BOS	26	5	43	191	44	28	10	19%	1.7	23.0%	14.7%	8.4%	5.2%	4.98	5.89	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	BOS	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	19.8%	8.5%	11.3%	3.6%	4.88	4.88	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	63	270	63	34	12	—	—	23.3%	12.6%	10.7%	4.4%	4.78	6.18	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	BOS	115	0	121	512	102	44	19	0%	1.1	20.0%	8.5%	11.5%	3.6%	4.84	4.86	-0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	BOS	112	0	118	497	99	43	18	0%	1.1	20.0%	8.6%	11.4%	3.7%	4.85	4.90	-0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	BOS	107	0	112	474	94	42	18	0%	1.0	19.9%	8.8%	11.1%	3.8%	4.92	5.00	-0.6
2030	30	MLB MLE	BOS	101	0	106	446	87	40	18	0%	1.0	19.6%	9.1%	10.5%	4.0%	5.05	5.15	-0.7
2027	27	MLB CTX	BOS	50	0	52	220	44	19	8	0%	1.0	20.0%	8.5%	11.5%	3.6%	4.84	4.86	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	BOS	70	0	74	312	63	27	11	0%	1.1	20.0%	8.6%	11.4%	3.7%	4.85	4.90	-0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	BOS	78	0	82	346	69	30	13	0%	1.1	19.9%	8.8%	11.1%	3.8%	4.92	5.00	-0.4
2030	30	MLB CTX	BOS	80	0	84	355	69	32	14	0%	1.1	19.6%	9.1%	10.5%	4.0%	5.05	5.15	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		278	0	292	1232	245	108	47	0%	1.0	19.9%	8.8%	11.1%	3.8%	4.93	4.61	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	74	32	0%	1.1	19.9%	8.8%	11.1%	3.8%	4.93	4.61	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		176	56	440	1946	319	167	76	32%	2.5	16.4%	8.6%	7.8%	3.9%	5.32	4.96	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	25	200	885	145	76	35	32%	2.5	16.4%	8.6%	7.8%	3.9%	5.32	4.96	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Osvaldo Berrios (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	19.8%	8.5%	3.6%	—	4.92	20.0%	11.3%	351	+0.04	—	—	—
Ariel Peña R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SW	3.74	21.3%	9.5%	2.3%	.300	4.92	19.9%	5.6%	92	+1.18	3.74	223	85
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	84
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	81
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	81
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	81
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	80
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	79
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	78
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	78
Brooks Hall R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	26	SW	4.30	14.2%	6.7%	2.8%	.284	3.45	13.6%	6.2%	55	-0.85	3.45	274	77
Ranfi Casimiro R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	26	SW	4.62	16.4%	10.7%	2.8%	.285	4.93	8.4%	-0.2%	16	+0.31	3.81	420	76
Kevin McGowan R 2018 · 4.86 FIP	26	SW	4.86	18.3%	9.7%	3.8%	.322	5.41	15.4%	4.7%	64	+0.55	2.94	426	76
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	76
Wil Jensen R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	25	SU	4.88	20.2%	12.1%	3.5%	.284	3.48	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.48	368	76
Carlos Navas R 2019 · 4.06 FIP	26	SW	4.06	20.7%	7.0%	3.3%	.271	6.98	19.3%	10.0%	44	+2.92	2.98	385	76
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	76
Tyler Thornburg R 2015 · 5.59 FIP	26	SW	5.59	15.4%	8.9%	4.9%	.295	3.65	28.7%	19.3%	104	-1.94	2.56	301	76
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	75
Jordan Lyles R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	26	SW	4.70	17.7%	6.9%	4.0%	.340	4.36	21.7%	13.5%	286	-0.34	3.44	1,080	75
Matt Wotherspoon R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	26	SW	4.30	22.2%	8.8%	3.6%	.311	4.93	21.5%	11.9%	71	+0.63	2.96	419	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	116	19.9%	8.7%	1.44	4.90
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12