Juan Mercedes
P
Sacramento River Cats
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 219 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 157148vR 139
ERA6.17
FIP6.17
K%16.2%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%5.4%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 10 | 2 | 30 | 115 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 20% | 3.0 | 11.8% | 3.3% | 8.6% | 0.0% | 2.43 | 2.51 | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 10 | 2 | 30 | 115 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 20% | 3.0 | 17.4% | 2.6% | 14.8% | 0.0% | 2.43 | 2.06 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 15 | 9 | 58 | 238 | 45 | 11 | 4 | 60% | 3.9 | 12.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 2.4% | 2.79 | 4.04 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 15 | 9 | 58 | 238 | 45 | 11 | 4 | 60% | 3.9 | 18.9% | 4.6% | 14.3% | 1.7% | 2.79 | 3.01 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 14.3% | 0.0% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 1.89 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 14.3% | 0.0% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 2.10 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Modesto Nuts | 34 | 0 | 63 | 277 | 88 | 17 | 9 | 0% | 1.9 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 16.3% | 5.9% | 5.54 | 5.25 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Modesto Nuts | 34 | 0 | 63 | 277 | 88 | 17 | 9 | 0% | 1.9 | 31.8% | 6.1% | 25.6% | 3.2% | 5.54 | 2.97 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 22 | 122 | 516 | 137 | 36 | 15 | 85% | 4.7 | 21.3% | 7.7% | 13.6% | 2.8% | 4.59 | 3.83 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 22 | 122 | 516 | 137 | 36 | 15 | 85% | 4.7 | 26.6% | 7.0% | 19.6% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 3.34 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 14 | 67 | 308 | 70 | 25 | 9 | 88% | 4.2 | 18.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 4.8% | 5.61 | 5.36 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 14 | 67 | 308 | 70 | 25 | 9 | 88% | 4.2 | 22.7% | 8.1% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 5.61 | 3.87 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 27 | 27 | 144 | 592 | 126 | 26 | 16 | 100% | 5.3 | 17.2% | 4.8% | 12.4% | 5.1% | 2.87 | 5.04 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 27 | 27 | 144 | 592 | 126 | 26 | 16 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.3% | 4.4% | 16.9% | 2.7% | 2.87 | 3.34 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 17 | 6 | 52 | 250 | 49 | 31 | 17 | 35% | 3.1 | 17.2% | 13.0% | 4.2% | 8.5% | 9.35 | 7.98 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 17 | 6 | 52 | 250 | 49 | 31 | 17 | 35% | 3.1 | 19.6% | 12.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 9.35 | 7.25 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | SF | 10 | 10 | 70 | 296 | 48 | 32 | 14 | 100% | 7.0 | 16.2% | 10.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.17 | 6.17 | -1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SF | 10 | 10 | 69 | 291 | 49 | 31 | 14 | 100% | 6.9 | 16.9% | 10.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.01 | 6.02 | -1.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SF | 10 | 10 | 67 | 282 | 49 | 30 | 13 | 100% | 6.7 | 17.3% | 10.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.94 | 5.98 | -1.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SF | 4 | 4 | 29 | 122 | 21 | 13 | 6 | 100% | 7.2 | 16.9% | 10.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.01 | 6.02 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SF | 6 | 6 | 42 | 177 | 31 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 7.0 | 17.3% | 10.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.94 | 5.98 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 10 | 71 | 301 | 52 | 32 | 14 | 100% | 7.1 | 17.1% | 10.7% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.97 | 5.62 | -0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 29 | 29 | 200 | 844 | 146 | 90 | 39 | 100% | 6.9 | 17.1% | 10.7% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.97 | 5.62 | -0.5 | ||
| Career | — | 147 | 80 | 540 | 2310 | 422 | 166 | 103 | 54% | 3.7 | 18.3% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 4.4% | 4.50 | 4.91 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 30 | 200 | 855 | 156 | 61 | 38 | 54% | 3.7 | 18.3% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 4.4% | 4.50 | 4.91 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Mercedes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.17 | 16.2% | 10.8% | 4.9% | — | 6.00 | 17.1% | 6.4% | 136 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Jake Dunning R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.65 | 13.4% | 9.6% | 4.5% | .354 | 4.21 | 14.1% | 2.8% | 74 | -1.44 | 4.13 | 120 | 85 |
| Mike Connolly R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 82 |
| Colby Morris R 2025 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 82 |
| Beau Blanchard R 2024 · 6.47 FIP | 24 | SW | 6.47 | 16.3% | 10.8% | 6.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 111 | 81 |
| Grant Judkins R 2026 · 5.55 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.55 | 16.8% | 9.1% | 5.0% | .264 | 6.06 | 14.9% | 5.8% | 124 | +0.51 | 5.40 | 322 | 79 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 78 |
| Matthew Shepherd R 2025 · 5.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.57 | 13.7% | 9.5% | 4.4% | .390 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.57 | 116 | 78 |
| Michael Ross R 2024 · 5.83 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.83 | 12.5% | 8.9% | 4.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 146 | 77 |
| Brett Conine R 2025 · 5.92 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.92 | 14.8% | 11.1% | 4.8% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 319 | 77 |
| Kevin Miranda R 2026 · 7.02 FIP | 26 | SP- | 7.02 | 14.1% | 10.0% | 7.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 153 | 76 |
| Tyler Thornburg R 2026 · 5.95 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.95 | 15.4% | 8.9% | 5.5% | .295 | 3.64 | 28.7% | 19.3% | 104 | -2.31 | 2.67 | 301 | 76 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2027 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 76 |
| Paul Clemens R 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 75 |
| Logan Verrett R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 15.4% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .283 | 4.97 | 17.8% | 11.8% | 94 | -0.21 | 3.73 | 550 | 75 |
| Xzavion Curry R 2026 · 6.45 FIP | 26 | SP- | 6.45 | 16.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | .253 | 6.48 | 11.7% | 2.1% | 100 | +0.03 | 3.19 | 513 | 75 |
| Sam Highfill R 2025 · 5.95 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.95 | 18.2% | 10.3% | 5.6% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.68 | 161 | 75 |
| Chance Kirby R 2026 · 5.96 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.96 | 15.1% | 10.0% | 5.2% | .242 | 4.74 | 18.5% | 11.2% | 138 | -1.22 | 4.26 | 325 | 74 |
| Robbie Peto R 2025 · 5.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.71 | 15.3% | 13.4% | 4.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.38 | 232 | 74 |
| Bubba Derby R 2025 · 5.48 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.48 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 4.8% | .287 | 5.37 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 71 | -0.11 | 3.74 | 550 | 73 |
| Kaleb Roper R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.54 | 17.3% | 11.8% | 4.4% | .398 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.54 | 146 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 69 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.86 | 6.04 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Edwin Jackson ('19) | 5 | 75 | 17.0% | 9.7% | 1.75 | 5.37 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Chris Young ('17) | 3 | 81 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 1.90 | 4.76 |