Juan Mercedes — OGILVIE

Juan Mercedes P Sacramento River Cats

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 219 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.80

FIP5.80

K%15.7%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%6.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	10	2	30	115	20	3	0	20%	3.0	11.8%	3.3%	8.6%	0.0%	2.43	2.51	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	10	2	30	115	20	3	0	20%	3.0	17.4%	2.6%	14.8%	0.0%	2.43	2.06	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	15	9	58	238	45	11	4	60%	3.9	12.9%	5.8%	7.1%	2.4%	2.79	4.04	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	15	9	58	238	45	11	4	60%	3.9	18.9%	4.6%	14.3%	1.7%	2.79	3.01	—
2019	19	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	2	0	4	14	2	0	0	0%	2.0	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	2.25	1.89	—
2019	19	A+ RAW	Modesto Nuts	2	0	4	14	2	0	0	0%	2.0	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	2.25	2.10	—
2021	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	34	0	63	277	88	17	9	0%	1.9	23.5%	7.2%	16.3%	4.9%	5.54	4.73	—
2021	21	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	34	0	63	277	88	17	9	0%	1.9	31.8%	6.1%	25.6%	3.2%	5.54	2.97	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	22	122	516	137	36	15	85%	4.7	21.3%	7.7%	13.6%	3.4%	4.59	4.13	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	22	122	516	137	36	15	85%	4.7	26.6%	7.0%	19.6%	2.9%	4.59	3.34	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	67	308	70	25	9	88%	4.2	18.0%	9.0%	9.0%	4.1%	5.61	4.95	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	67	308	70	25	9	88%	4.2	18.0%	9.0%	9.0%	4.1%	5.61	4.95	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	14	67	308	70	25	9	88%	4.2	22.7%	8.1%	14.6%	2.9%	5.61	3.87	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	27	27	144	592	126	26	16	100%	5.3	17.2%	4.8%	12.4%	4.0%	2.87	4.43	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	27	27	144	592	126	26	16	100%	5.3	17.2%	4.8%	12.4%	4.0%	2.87	4.43	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	27	27	144	592	126	26	16	100%	5.3	21.3%	4.4%	16.9%	2.7%	2.87	3.34	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	17	6	52	250	49	31	17	35%	3.1	16.3%	11.2%	5.1%	8.0%	9.35	7.52	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	17	6	52	250	49	31	17	35%	3.1	16.3%	11.2%	5.1%	8.0%	9.35	7.52	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	17	6	52	250	49	31	17	35%	3.1	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	6.8%	9.35	7.25	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	SF	1	1	6	25	4	2	1	100%	6.0	15.7%	9.3%	6.4%	4.5%	5.80	5.80	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	SF	19	19	128	540	88	50	24	100%	6.7	16.3%	9.2%	7.1%	4.4%	5.67	5.69	-1.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	SF	18	18	124	524	87	48	23	100%	6.9	16.6%	9.2%	7.4%	4.4%	5.62	5.66	-1.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	SF	17	17	119	501	83	47	22	100%	7.0	16.7%	9.4%	7.3%	4.5%	5.65	5.72	-1.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	SF	16	16	112	471	77	45	22	100%	7.0	16.4%	9.7%	6.8%	4.6%	5.77	5.86	-1.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	54	228	37	21	10	100%	6.8	16.3%	9.2%	7.1%	4.4%	5.67	5.69	-0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	SF	11	11	78	329	55	30	15	100%	7.1	16.6%	9.2%	7.4%	4.4%	5.62	5.66	-0.6
2029	29	MLB CTX	SF	13	13	86	363	60	34	16	100%	6.6	16.7%	9.4%	7.3%	4.5%	5.65	5.72	-0.8
2030	30	MLB CTX	SF	13	13	89	376	62	36	17	100%	6.8	16.4%	9.7%	6.8%	4.6%	5.77	5.86	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	45	307	1298	215	122	58	100%	6.8	16.5%	9.4%	7.1%	4.5%	5.68	5.36	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		29	29	200	844	140	79	38	100%	6.9	16.5%	9.4%	7.1%	4.5%	5.68	5.36	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		147	80	540	2310	419	161	92	54%	3.7	18.2%	7.0%	11.2%	4.0%	4.50	4.65	-4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	30	200	855	155	60	34	54%	3.7	18.2%	7.0%	11.2%	4.0%	4.50	4.65	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Mercedes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.80	15.7%	9.3%	4.5%	—	5.69	16.5%	7.3%	371	-0.11	—	—	—
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	86
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	83
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.85	13.9%	4.7%	81	+1.14	4.43	239	82
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	80
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	80
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	78
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	78
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	78
Jake Walkinshaw R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	17.5%	6.4%	4.0%	.296	4.84	13.0%	3.5%	116	+0.23	2.84	307	78
Tyler Thornburg R 2015 · 5.59 FIP	26	SW	5.59	15.4%	8.9%	4.9%	.295	3.65	28.7%	19.3%	104	-1.94	2.56	301	77
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	77
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	77
Brett Conine R 2022 · 5.68 FIP	25	SW	5.68	14.8%	11.1%	4.4%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	319	76
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	76
Jacob Wosinski R 2023 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	17.7%	12.4%	5.7%	.351	4.73	16.8%	5.2%	148	-1.58	3.89	181	76
Luis Santos R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	19.7%	9.7%	3.8%	.262	3.93	22.1%	13.0%	127	-0.83	3.53	472	75
Tyler Jackson R 2018 · 5.81 FIP	24	SW	5.81	13.2%	5.9%	5.6%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	103	75
Logan Verrett R 2016 · 5.19 FIP	26	SW	5.19	15.4%	10.6%	3.7%	.283	4.65	17.8%	11.8%	94	-0.54	3.81	550	75
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	75
Terance Marin R 2016 · 4.91 FIP	26	SP-	4.91	11.2%	7.7%	3.2%	.294	4.22	12.4%	7.5%	88	-0.69	3.54	322	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	110	16.4%	9.4%	1.74	5.69
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Andrew Suárez ('23)	1.1	74	18.2%	7.8%	1.51	5.02
Chi Chi González ('22)	1.3	64	13.3%	9.0%	1.41	5.44
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56