Kevin Abel

P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #749

ETA2029FG ETA2026MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	24	24	116	4.51	3.96	22.4%	12.9%	—	K 17.9% · BB 14.3% · FIP 4.54
2025	26	MIX2 levels	27	26	125	4.55	3.86	22.3%	11.1%	—	K 17.8% · BB 12.0% · FIP 4.50
2026	27	MIX2 levels	31	17	111	5.35	4.39	23.5%	13.9%	—	K 19.2% · BB 14.9% · FIP 5.07
2027PROJ	28	MLBCIN	24	24	145	5.28	5.28	19.1%	14.6%	-0.6
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBCIN	7	7	43	5.25	5.30	19.1%	14.1%	-0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBCIN	11	11	67	5.31	5.40	19.0%	13.9%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Command40FB velo40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsEdgar Alberto Garcia (age 28) · Luke Irvine (age 27) · Nate Long (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.28

FIP5.28

K%19.1%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%4.5%

Proj IP145

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 145 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CMD4040

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	3	3	4	17	6	3	1	100%	1.3	35.3%	17.6%	17.6%	5.9%	9.00	5.58	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	3	3	4	17	6	3	1	100%	1.3	35.3%	17.6%	17.6%	5.9%	9.00	5.60	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	6	39	184	66	34	4	46%	3.0	25.2%	22.4%	2.8%	3.9%	5.82	5.92	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	6	39	184	66	34	4	46%	3.0	35.9%	18.5%	17.4%	2.2%	5.82	3.67	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	14	72	320	90	47	7	74%	3.8	21.1%	17.2%	3.9%	2.8%	5.40	5.01	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	14	72	320	90	47	7	74%	3.8	28.1%	14.7%	13.4%	2.2%	5.40	3.83	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	116	504	113	65	10	100%	4.8	17.9%	14.3%	3.6%	2.1%	4.51	4.54	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	116	504	113	65	10	100%	4.8	17.9%	14.3%	3.6%	2.1%	4.51	4.54	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	116	504	113	65	10	100%	4.8	22.4%	12.9%	9.5%	2.0%	4.51	3.96	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	125	533	119	59	12	96%	4.6	17.8%	12.0%	5.8%	2.5%	4.55	4.50	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	125	533	119	59	12	96%	4.6	17.8%	12.0%	5.8%	2.5%	4.55	4.50	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	125	533	119	59	12	96%	4.6	22.3%	11.1%	11.3%	2.3%	4.55	3.86	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	17	111	503	118	70	13	55%	3.6	19.2%	14.9%	4.3%	3.1%	5.35	5.07	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	17	111	503	118	70	13	55%	3.6	19.2%	14.9%	4.3%	3.1%	5.35	5.07	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	17	111	503	118	70	13	55%	3.6	23.5%	13.9%	9.5%	2.6%	5.35	4.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	CIN	24	24	145	612	117	89	17	100%	6.0	19.1%	14.6%	4.5%	2.8%	5.28	5.28	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CIN	23	23	138	584	112	82	18	100%	6.0	19.1%	14.1%	5.0%	3.0%	5.25	5.30	-0.6
2029	30	MLB MLE	CIN	22	22	130	548	104	76	18	100%	5.9	19.0%	13.9%	5.1%	3.2%	5.31	5.40	-0.7
2028	29	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	43	182	35	26	5	100%	6.1	19.1%	14.1%	5.0%	3.0%	5.25	5.30	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	67	283	54	39	9	100%	6.1	19.0%	13.9%	5.1%	3.2%	5.31	5.40	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	18	110	464	88	65	15	100%	6.1	19.0%	14.0%	5.0%	3.1%	5.29	4.98	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	160	118	27	100%	6.0	19.0%	14.0%	5.0%	3.1%	5.29	4.98	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		117	90	466	2061	402	310	56	77%	4.0	19.5%	15.0%	4.4%	2.7%	5.01	4.86	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	39	200	885	173	133	24	77%	4.0	19.5%	15.0%	4.4%	2.7%	5.01	4.86	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Abel (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.28	19.1%	14.6%	2.8%	—	5.35	19.1%	5.0%	268	+0.07	—	—	—
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	14.6%	9.8%	2.3%	.311	4.01	17.3%	6.4%	44	-0.36	4.01	272	72
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	72
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	70
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	70
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	69
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	68
Tim Corcoran R 2006 · 4.67 FIP	28	SP-	4.67	14.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.29	7.6%	-3.8%	17	+0.62	4.10	130	68
Brannon Easterling R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	26	SP-	4.40	12.7%	8.2%	2.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	334	67
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	66
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	66
Chris Kachmar R 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	17.1%	9.8%	2.9%	.274	4.79	19.3%	7.3%	143	+0.32	4.29	360	65
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	65
Jordan Pries R 2016 · 4.43 FIP	26	SP-	4.43	17.4%	8.2%	3.2%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	219	64
Daniel Corcino R 2019 · 5.83 FIP	28	SP	5.83	17.5%	12.2%	4.9%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	318	64
Mitch Neunborn R 2024 · 4.25 FIP	27	SP-	4.25	19.0%	12.0%	2.2%	.285	5.80	16.4%	6.5%	114	+1.55	3.65	248	64
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	64
Luke Hudson R 2005 · 5.54 FIP	28	SP	5.54	13.9%	12.6%	3.7%	.260	3.81	14.5%	6.1%	102	-1.73	3.81	235	64
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2024 · 5.14 FIP	26	SP	5.14	14.8%	11.1%	3.4%	.280	4.32	17.5%	4.0%	184	-0.82	3.65	492	64
Mike Augliera R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP-	4.27	12.0%	7.2%	2.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	114	63
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	138	19.1%	14.2%	1.16	5.28
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Kaz Ishii ('05)	2.8	141	17.4%	14.2%	1.12	4.44
Emmett O'Neill ('43-'46, -2 WAR*)	1.8	119	19.1%*	15.5%*	0.99*	5.94*
Tyler Green ('98)	1.9	128	15.4%	11.8%	1.10	5.16
Gene Dale ('11-'16, -1 WAR*)	2.2	148	17.7%*	12.6%*	1.45*	5.30*
Mysterious Walker ('10-'15, -1 WAR*)	1.5	99	20.6%*	11.4%*	1.25*	5.38*