Luis Palacios

P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 27 LHP 6'2" / 160 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

Scout OFP40ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	AAMIA	24	24	125	4.91	3.85	17.3%	5.3%	—	K 14.0% · BB 5.9% · FIP 4.37
2025	25	MIX2 levels	33	9	84	3.44	3.83	17.7%	10.2%	—	K 14.4% · BB 10.7% · FIP 4.25
2026	26	MIX2 levels	37	18	100	3.42	4.19	22.7%	12.3%	—	K 18.8% · BB 13.1% · FIP 4.93
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIA	10	10	70	4.88	4.88	16.3%	9.4%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBMIA	4	4	26	4.87	4.91	16.9%	9.5%	-0.0
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBMIA	5	5	36	4.93	4.99	17.2%	9.7%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control64Command65FB velo38

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsEric DuBose (age 27) · Aaron Rozek (age 27) · Justin Marks (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%16.3%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%6.9%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5045

CTRL6565

CMD6565

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	15	4	47	197	43	15	1	27%	3.1	14.8%	9.5%	5.3%	0.7%	2.70	3.44	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	15	4	47	197	43	15	1	27%	3.1	21.8%	7.6%	14.2%	0.5%	2.70	2.50	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	15	4	64	228	62	4	0	27%	4.2	18.5%	2.2%	16.3%	0.0%	0.85	1.82	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	15	4	64	228	62	4	0	27%	4.2	27.2%	1.8%	25.4%	0.0%	0.85	1.34	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	10	4	40	145	42	2	2	40%	4.0	19.7%	1.7%	18.0%	1.9%	1.12	2.72	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	10	4	40	145	42	2	2	40%	4.0	29.0%	1.4%	27.6%	1.4%	1.12	1.81	—
2021	21	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	12	10	65	265	66	16	10	83%	5.4	18.4%	7.1%	11.3%	5.5%	3.88	5.47	—
2021	21	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	12	10	65	265	66	16	10	83%	5.4	24.9%	6.0%	18.9%	3.8%	3.88	3.81	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	21	132	535	124	16	20	91%	5.7	17.3%	2.8%	14.5%	5.0%	4.17	4.73	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	21	132	535	124	16	20	91%	5.7	23.2%	3.0%	20.2%	3.7%	4.17	3.56	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	23	144	594	110	31	29	92%	5.8	15.0%	5.7%	9.3%	5.5%	4.30	5.56	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	23	144	594	110	31	29	92%	5.8	18.5%	5.2%	13.3%	4.9%	4.30	4.83	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	24	24	125	543	94	29	15	100%	5.2	14.0%	5.9%	8.1%	3.1%	4.91	4.37	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	24	24	125	543	94	29	15	100%	5.2	14.0%	5.9%	8.1%	3.1%	4.91	4.37	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	24	24	125	543	94	29	15	100%	5.2	17.3%	5.3%	12.0%	2.8%	4.91	3.85	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	9	84	361	64	37	6	27%	2.5	14.4%	10.7%	3.7%	1.8%	3.44	4.25	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	9	84	361	64	37	6	27%	2.5	14.4%	10.7%	3.7%	1.8%	3.44	4.25	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	9	84	361	64	37	6	27%	2.5	17.7%	10.2%	7.5%	1.7%	3.44	3.83	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	18	100	405	92	50	11	49%	2.7	18.8%	13.1%	5.7%	3.2%	3.42	4.93	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	18	100	405	92	50	11	49%	2.7	18.8%	13.1%	5.7%	3.2%	3.42	4.93	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	18	100	405	92	50	11	49%	2.7	22.7%	12.3%	10.4%	2.7%	3.42	4.19	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIA	10	10	70	296	48	28	9	100%	7.0	16.3%	9.4%	6.9%	2.9%	4.88	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	68	287	48	27	9	100%	6.8	16.9%	9.5%	7.4%	3.0%	4.87	4.91	-0.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	65	274	47	27	9	100%	6.5	17.2%	9.7%	7.4%	3.2%	4.93	4.99	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIA	4	4	26	110	19	10	3	100%	6.5	16.9%	9.5%	7.4%	3.0%	4.87	4.91	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIA	5	5	36	152	26	15	5	100%	7.2	17.2%	9.7%	7.4%	3.2%	4.93	4.99	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	9	62	260	44	25	8	100%	6.8	17.0%	9.6%	7.4%	3.1%	4.91	4.58	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	143	81	26	100%	6.7	17.0%	9.6%	7.4%	3.1%	4.91	4.58	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		194	117	800	3273	535	218	115	60%	4.1	16.3%	6.6%	9.7%	3.5%	3.61	4.48	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	29	200	818	134	54	29	60%	4.1	16.3%	6.6%	9.7%	3.5%	3.61	4.48	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Palacios (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	16.3%	9.4%	2.9%	—	4.95	17.0%	7.4%	133	+0.07	—	—	—
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	85
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.34	16.7%	9.5%	356	-0.53	3.68	579	85
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	85
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	84
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	83
Nick Additon L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	27	SP-	3.73	14.0%	7.9%	1.5%	.307	4.15	14.4%	7.1%	106	+0.42	3.13	217	81
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	80
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	80
Matt Tracy L 2016 · 3.89 FIP	27	SW	3.89	13.8%	8.3%	1.7%	.328	4.22	15.3%	5.5%	129	+0.33	3.24	298	79
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	78
Carlos Teller L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	28	SP-	3.75	13.8%	10.9%	0.8%	.329	4.75	13.3%	3.1%	187	+1.00	3.75	333	78
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	78
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	77
John Rheinecker L 2006 · 4.14 FIP	27	SP-	4.14	8.7%	5.9%	1.9%	.364	5.13	16.7%	5.8%	50	+0.99	4.14	121	75
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	75
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	75
Onelki Garcia L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	16.5%	9.3%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	164	75
Phil Dumatrait L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	27	SP-	4.39	14.8%	11.4%	2.0%	.298	5.73	13.9%	2.0%	54	+1.34	4.39	151	74
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	74
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	16.8%	9.5%	1.17	4.89
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*